Phil and David break down everything you need to know about Hector Lombard vs. Neil Magny for UFN 85 in Australia, and everything you don’t about the joy of steroid use.
Hector Lombard tries to get back on track without performance enhancing drugs this weekend against Neil Magny on March 20, 2016 at the Brisbane Entertainment Centre in Brisbane, Australia.
Stats
Hector Lombard 34-4-1 2 NC
Odds: +110
Neil Magny 17-4
Odds: -130
History lesson / introduction to the fighters
Phil: Hector Lombard was Bellator’s equivalent to Anderson Silva for a while. Equally capable of delivering highlight reel violence or a bit of a stinker, but still dominant for all that. Losses to Tim Boetsch and Okami were gifts to the “no-one outside the UFC is any good anyway” crowd, but a drop to welterweight has had him on a bit more of a run. Said run has been slowed and/or stalled somewhat by a combination of getting busted for PEDs, and people being uninterested in fighting him (Tyron Woodley and apparently Rory MacDonald). At 38 it’s likely now or never, though.
David: Lombard is definitely on father time’s short leash, but that’s what anabolic steroids are for. I mean, I’d love for collective culture to get over its moral outrage over drugs that allow people who tear their bodies down every day to use them to build up those bodies in order to prolong their ability to use those bodies for money, but we don’t live in that world. As such, Lombard is the real enemy. ‘Murica!
Phil: How cool is Neil Magny? I like fighters that show organic growth. Most people develop in fits and starts, or sometimes don’t develop at all. It’s rare that we get to see someone who comes in to the UFC, and they’re not very good, but they slowly and steadily get better from fight to fight until they’re knocking on the door of the elite. It gives a wonderful view into what fighter evolution looks like. Thanks Neil Magny.
David: My only problem with Neil, and it’s a big frikkin problem, is his decision to lose the ‘Aout’ in Aoutneil; his actual first name. That’s a truly kickass first name. It’s the kind of badass name that would make a French supervillain in a Bond film jealous.
What are the stakes?
Phil: Winner goes into the mystery vortex. Just what the hell is going on at the top of welterweight? Gossipy whispers say that Zuffa are trying desperately to get GSP back to fight Lawler (personally, I’ll pass, thanks). Condit has said he’s retiring if he doesn’t get the Lawler runback. Nate Diaz? Wonderboy-Rory winner? Poor old Tyron Woodley? Demian Maia if he beats Matt Brown? Throw the winner of this somewhere in that giant mess.
David: Ahh, the mystery vortex. Noun: the destination for hierarchy uncertainty, often found next to Joe Silva’s lost car keys. Sometimes it can be fun, like Nick Diaz’ bid for the welterweight title, and sometimes it can a fantastic waste of time, like Chael Sonnen’s bid for the Light Heavyweight title. Whatever the case, I have to imagine that a Magny win gets him another high profile fight, and nothing more. Same with Lombard. Also, GSP vs. Lawler is great, just not at the expense of St-Pierre suddenly shutting up about the UFC’s drug policy.
Where do they want it?
Phil: Here we immediately run into Hector Lombard’s problem in this fight. I’m not sure if there is a particular space he can occupy with any consistency. Due to the dramatic difference in reach, Lombard’s boxing range is basically Magny’s clinch range. Thus this leaves him having to explode in, attempting to counter Magny’s jabs.
Can he do this? Absolutely. Magny is not unhittable at all. As another plus, Lombard should be at least partially insulated by being near unshakeable in the clinch. Magny primarily works the body lock and he’s going to struggle mightily to control Lombard’s hips. Lombard’s overall skill on the feet has been downplayed a little recently as well- I hear a lot of people referring to him as some kind of one-note power punching brawler. His offensive grappling is nothing to sneeze at, either. He threw Shields around like a child.
David: Unshakeable? The dude is kryptonite in the clinch. But talking about his ability to fight at range, his sheer lack of height is a real issue. For as much as we criticize his gas tank, and lack of activity, it’s kind of a necessary evil for him. There’s no way he comfortably throw combinations (which he’s more than capable of) without whiffing on a portion of it.
I liken Lombard’s striking to an efficient Penalty Killing unit in hockey. A PK in hockey occurs when a player from one team commits a penalty. The offending team loses that player for two minutes, at which time the team of the offendee gets to play with a man advantage. Lombard is that dangerous PK unit; the one that knows they’re outmanned, and so they sacrifice quality chances for the ability to counterattack. Lombard’s punching power is that goal horn. He concedes all the space he needs to, so when the opportunity presents itself, he attacks with extreme prejudice.
Phil: Similarly to Lombard’s skill on the feet being a bit underplayed, Magny is a little weird when it comes to the standup. He’s not great, but he is certainly getting better, and the degree of skill required to maintain a consistent “tall man” outside game is consistently underrated. Magny has a good range-finder jab and chopping overhand, but his footwork and that jab don’t quite coalesce to keep him safe, nor does he have a particularly sophisticated array of parries or upper body movement. Still, he keeps a good pace and can set up solid multi-strike combinations on defensive opponents. He’s a great clinch grappler, and in the grappling has brief flashes of true brilliance- the way he uses his head as a lever under the jaw to unpleasantly elongate the posture of shorter fighters when he has the body lock is a little reminiscent of Jon Jones. On the mat, his postured ground and pound is just terrifying.
David: Magny is the kid in school who diligently follows the teacher’s solution method to a T, and thus ends up sacrificing time where economy and respect for his own instincts would suffice. He knows exactly what he has to do, and that’s part of what has allowed him to flourish. He understands the mechanics required to take advantage of his frame, and executes it. Stick Magny’s brain in Struve’s body and you might have something. But Magny has had to flush years of bad instincts out of his system, so the traces linger. Nonetheless, he’s an intelligent fighter. He doesn’t phase shift into clinchwork the way I’d like him to, but he’s extremely crafty in close quarter combat, which you sense he’d prefer to be.
Insight from past fights?
Phil: Hector Lombard has two fights I’m thinking of. One was encouraging and one wasn’t. The first was Lombard-Shields, and it showed just how unshakeable Lombard is in the clinch. The second is much more damning, because Okami displayed how Lombard could just get stuck on the end of a single jab and takedown chain for minutes on end. Lombard’s issues may have been exacerbated by Okami being a fellow southpaw, but Yushin wasn’t shorter than Magny, and was markedly slower of foot.
David: The Okami fight really stood out, but so did the Magny vs. Silva fight. Erick Silva is a punchline at this point, and this was only a year ago but I wasn’t a fan of Magny’s distance management. This is the key here; has Magny improved enough to stay sufficiently consistent against a fighter who will exploit him on the first misstep?
X-Factors?
Phil: Lombard lay-off, Lombard PED issues, Lombard age. Magny, conversely, is an absolute picture of consistency.
David: Whatever x-factor you can think of is an x-factor that could potentially be an issue for Lombard.
Prognostication:
Phil: Hmmm. Lombard hits very, very hard and is a very underrated takedown threat, and Magny is not defensively impenetrable at all. However, a lot of intangibles are in Magny’s favour- even if he can’t take Lombard down from the clinch, I think he can simply wear on Lombard from above and (oddly) below in a way which the much shorter Jake Shields couldn’t. Pace, cardio and reach are big advantages, even in a 3 rounder. Neil Magny by unanimous decision.
David: There are too many inputs (Magny’s IQ, clinch work, work rate, range striking) working in Magny’s favor to betray the kind of fight ending output Lombard would need to put away Magny. Not only that but I think Lombard will really begin to feel lost at a certain point if he can’t generate any offense in the first round. Neil Magny by Decision.