Khabib makes his frustrating long awaited return two years later after a multitude of injuries forced the would be title contender on the shelf. Now he gets to wipe off the cage rust against slick striker, Darrel Horcher for UFC on Fox 19.
The Nurmagomedov Show resumes its regularly scheduled grapple-bash programming this April 16, 2016 at the Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida.
The Match Up
Catchweight (160 lbs) Khabib Nurmagomedov 22-0 vs. Darrell Horcher 13-1
The Odds
Catchweight (160 lbs) Khabib Nurmagomedov -1100 vs. Darrell Horcher +700
3 Things You Should Know
1. Khabib may have lost valuable time. But he hasn’t lost his allure.
The story for Nurmagomedov between now and until he gets the kind of payday fight everyone anticipated when he was ripping through the lightweight division will be whether or not his injuries adversely affect his long term future. In a world that has a limited knowledge of sports science, the idea that a fighter could be “injury prone” seems foreign despite its very tangible dilemma its sets up for athletes who are good at a sport with phenotypes and/or genotypes that are burdened by the physiological stress. Could Khabib, for all of his talentes, wear such a burden like Kimo carrying a cross to the ring? I don’t know. His knees are good enough to train with obviously, but it’s something to watch out for.
2. Horcher is way more dangerous than you think, justified odds or not.
Horcher is the CFFC Lightweight champion, and since few people know who he is, let’s run some tape:
Horcher’s lone professional loss was to Phillipe Nover in 2013 in Bellator. Since then he’s rattled off wins over qualtiy east coast competition, beating Stephen Regman, Jordan Stiner, and Alex Ricci. If there’s such a thing as a perfect fight for a fighter given zero chance for totally legitimate reasons, this is certainly it. He’s a sincerely dangerous kickboxer with nothing to lose but his underdog chains.
3. It’s Khabib’s fight to lose but Horcher has a better than your typical puncher’s chance.
Nurmagomedov is a symbol of utilitarian pugilism. He’s the counter to unthinking versatility. So many fighters take binary approaches to being “well rounded”. Either they develop new skillsets to generate chances for. Or they develop new skillsets to suppress chances against.
Versatility, to the degree that it means anything in modern MMA, is fine. But it’s not what allows fighters to succeed at the highest levels. In prizefighting, tunnel vision is an asset. And Khabib has brilliant, grappler tunnel vision. Because he’s naturally aggressive, he doesn’t waste time thinking about his first move. He just executes. It’s the paradox of predictability: telegraphing your strategy telegraphs an opponent’s response. Nuance your approach, and your strengths are only amplified.
With this philosophy in mind, Khabib makes nice, clean, but aggressive clinch, punch, and trip entries. He gets inside quickly with precise spatial awareness, using an array of uppercuts designed to manipulate an opponent’s positioning before even being in position for a takedown. Once on the ground, he’s a terror of pressure. He doesn’t have Fedor’s classic power ground and pound game. But he’s stifling in a more controlled way, and much better (in my opinion) and complimenting his offense with grappling positions. Where Fedor used the mechanics of kickboxing to inform his ground and pound rhythm, Khabib uses the mechanics of grappling to inform his ground and pound rhythm.
On the other wise is Horcher, who is quick on the draw in a way fighters with Khabib’s style traditionally have trouble with. He has a lightning quick straight left from his southpaw stance, His right hook is just as quick, and he can level change to display a varied arsenal in general. Still, none of this will be enough.
Prediction
Horcher would be a nightmare for most fighters like Khabib because he has such a good base, and doesn’t need to wind up on his strikes in order to land violently. This is why Khabib’s game illuminates so much of what’s wrong with the stereotypes of “wrestle-boxer” or whatever. Horcher would be a nightmare for a traditional wrestle-boxer. Khabib is a nightmare matchup for Horcher, who can only win if he prays to the MMA gods that he gets some of that magic upset dust sprinkled on him. Khabib Nurmagomedov by Decision.