Some veterans, TUF’ers, and usual assortment of pugilists littler the UFC Fight Night 87 undercard in the Netherlands this weekend.
this May 8, 2016 at the Ahoy Rotterdam in Rotterdam, Netherlands.
The Line Up
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)
Lightweight Rustam Khabilov vs. Chris Wade
Middleweight Magnus Cedenblad vs. Garreth McLellan
Lightweight Yan Cabral vs. Reza Madadi
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Flyweight Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Neil Seery
Welterweight Leon Edwards vs. Dominic Waters
Flyweight Yuta Sasaki vs. Willie Gates
The Odds
Chris Wade +175 Rustam Khabilov -210
Garreth McLellan +255 Magnus Cedenblad -310
Reza Madadi +155 Yan Cabral -175
Dominic Waters +210 Leon Edwards -250
Kyoji Horiguchi -600 Neil Seery +450
Ulka Sasaki +130 Willie Gates -150
The Rundown
Lightweight Rustam Khabilov vs. Chris Wade
Khabilov is a long from slam knockout debut home. Even though his stock has fallen a bit, he scored a solid win over Norman Parke in his last outing. Parke may be unspectacular as an entertainer, but he’s technical and savvy. It’s a good win. Now he’s facing Wade, who is 4-0 in the UFC and finally getting the high-ish profile fights he deserves. As good as this fight is on paper, I don’t know that it’s the most crowd pleasing. Neither guy is the most enthralling of strikers, but they approach their strikes in different ways: Khabilov interesting in the punctuated eccentricities of spinning kicks and randomly timed overhand rights, while Wade opts for the predictable utility of punch transition wrestling. I’m close to favoring Wade for his ability to neutralize Khabilov’s rhythm. With his activity and strength, he has the ability. I just feel like Khabilov has the better overall aptitude to dictate the pace.
Middleweight Magnus Cedenblad vs. Garreth McLellan
Cedenblad has quietly pulled together a nice and not so little win streak in the UFC, going 3-0 in his last three after losing to Francis Carmont. His quality of competition is a little wanting, but you can’t blame him for beating who Silva puts in front of him. He’ll be taking on the “Soldier Boy” who is 1-1 in the UFC. McLellan has gotten by not just on his savage Scandinavian mountain man looks (yes I know he’s South African), but on his heavy top control and brutish strength. His boxing leaves a lot to be desired because a few tweaks could probably open up his game. Cedenblad is equally big, but is a much cleaner striker, able to stream offense with his hands and feet in order to open up opportunities on the ground. There, his offense remains dangerous via his movement and strikes from top position. McLellan should push this one into all three rounds, but Cedenblad has the ability to punish all three rounds.
Lightweight Yan Cabral vs. Reza Madadi
Madadi is fresh off his bust for purse snatching in the land of stoner rock and hard gummies. It’s unfortunate too because despite Reza’s age, he’s a good presence in the lightweight division, owning one of the more stout wrestling games in the division. He’s also very good at taking advantage of his wrestling with brutal positioning, bludgeoning his way into submissions where the opportunity presents itself. This is right where Cabral wants it, which is the issue here: Madadi should be able to keep it on the feet where Cabral is merely average. He could find a trip or two over the course of three rounds, but I like Madadi’s ability to keep the fight on the feet.
Flyweight Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Neil Seery
I’ve been fairly impressed with Seery’s flyweight Chris Lytle schtick. He’s the kind of fighter who rises just enough above his journeyman skills by being a tough bastard. He’ll be up against the elite in Horiguchi who is inexplicably on Fight Pass instead of the main card where he belongs. Horiguchi is coming off a win over Chico Camus after losing a title fight with Demetrious Johnson. He’s still a delight of Japanese pugilism; fighting beyond the stereotype, generating a steady stream of midrange weapons that quickly transition into top control brutality when he flips the switch. He’s brilliant at closing distance with his strikes, and his natural power is simply a bonus. This is a tough fight for him though. Seery can absorb a decent amount of punishment, while throwing slick combinations of his own. He’s actually the more versatile boxer in this bout. And he can defend against the takedown if Kyoji feels uncomfortable; an option he’s typically willing to go to. Still, Seery can be hittable and likely won’t defend takedowns for long.
Welterweight Leon Edwards vs. Dominic Waters
At 2-2 in the UFC, Edwards is a decent journeyman who has some slick southpaw pugilism aptitude. He’s fighting a grappler in Waters who has yet to win a fight in the UFC. It should stay that way as well because Edwards is good at anticipating takedowns, maintaining his balance, and getting his hooks set. It’s a competitive fight despite the brevity of this analysis, but only because their styles aren’t dynamic enough to define which nuance in their game could influence the outcome. Edwards can defend takedowns well and is the better striker. End of story.
Flyweight Yuta Sasaki vs. Willie Gates
This is pretty classic near pink slip matchmaking. Gates has fought the better quality of competition while Sasaki has fought mid tier bantamweights. His height will be an issue for many flyweights but his issue here is that his game doesn’t rely on the kind of crisp boxing that would rule the weight division. Like many Asian fighters, he’s dynamic on the feet, but not dangerous. He has access to an array of strikes that help him close the distance and because of his height, he can be effective but he’s also highly gettable on the feet. Not Stefan Struve gettable, but close. On the ground he moves a lot like Struve as well, moving fluidly from one position to the next. Gates will have the advantage on the feet but because he doesn’t have extreme raw power, Sasaki should be able to ground him down for a submission eventually.
Predictions
Khabilov by Decision
Cedenblad by Decision
Madadi by Decision
Horiguchi by Decision
Edwards by TKO, round 2
Sasaki by RNC, round 2