Carlos Condit vs. Demian Maia is not a striker-grappler matchup. It’s more like the striker-grappler matchup, particularly in the UFC welterweight division.
That’s probably why the main event of Saturday’s UFC on Fox 21 earns the winner a highly comfortable spot in the divisional catbird seat. While no title shot has been overtly promised, it stands to reason that champ Tyron Woodley would face a stiff challenge in Maia, who he has never faced, or Condit, who Woodley beat in 2014 but only after Condit suffered a freak knee injury.
That’s the deal heading onto Big Fox. That’s right. Curt Menefee and everything. There are 11 fights on the card, and these are the four key storylines.
Maia vs. Condit: What Kind Of Fight Will This Be?
Condit is one of the UFC’s most thrilling fighters. Maia’s the UFC’s hottest fighter.
Despite that five-fight win streak, though, Maia is not always a riveting watch. The Natural Born Killer himself expressed this sentiment in comments last month.
“I think that a win in spectacular fashion over Demian Maia gets me the title shot. I don’t see why it wouldn’t,” Condit said on the Toe-2-Toe radio show with Brian Stann (h/t MMA Fighting). “Arguably Demian Maia could be the No. 1 contender. The reason he’s not is because of his fighting style. [He’s] not the most exciting dude but he’s beat the who’s who in the division.”
So is this one of those times when there’s a straight line between the winner of the fight and the fun factor of said fight? Not so fast. This equation’s a little more complicated.
Maia’s skill set is well documented but it’s more than just a deep array of moves. Take a look at the strength that accompanies Maia’s technical prowess. A former middleweight, Maia forces grown fighting welterweights into the positions where he wants them. Then he stops them from doing anything—anything at all—that they want to do.
It’s why his “out-Fitching of Jon Fitch,” a mean and dedicated grinder, was so celebrated back in 2013. Ditto his dismantling of Gunnar Nelson last year. Sure, Maia goes for subs, but his ability to see several moves ahead and then use his leverage and strength to act on that knowledge are the key parts of his game.
They are also the boring parts of his game, if the bloodsport within the sport is what excites you.
Despite the easy striker label, Condit is pretty darn good with submissions, but he’ll want no part of Maia there Saturday. So it’s not particularly heartening for Condit fans to see that his takedown defense rate, per the UFC, is only 40 percent. Statistics are not always the greatest tool in MMA analysis, but this is still telling.
You know what else is telling? Maia’s 31 percent takedown success rate, by the same UFC stat keeper.
But that’s definitely misleading. Look at the FightMetric stats that show Maia failing only twice in his 23-fight UFC career to record more takedowns than the other guy. Those two guys? Chris Weidman and Mark Munoz, both what you might call pretty darn good wrestlers (and middleweights, which is even less subjective). Remember that strength we talked about? That helps Maia with his offensive wrestling and helps make him more effective in his offensive wrestling compared with other jiu-jitsu-based fighters.
This could all set up an extended series of takedown attempts from Maia, with Condit staving them off with varying levels of success.
Now combine this with the fact that, for all his strengths, Maia is no black belt in the ways of endurance. Condit is a master of this discipline. In the midst of the takedown cat-and-mouse, Condit will play his own version with the striking. He’ll stick, move, evade and bide his time for the championship rounds—which weren’t initially there when his bout was signed.
That all bodes well for two things: a Condit decision win, and a slow burn not associated with a typical Condit fight.
Anthony Pettis Looks—and Needs—to Stop Skid in Featherweight Debut
Anthony Pettis was once the lightweight champ. He was once considered a top overall MMA talent and one of the best strikers in all of MMA. That 2013 armbar on Benson Henderson bolstered his resume of well-roundedness. Remember that bit of amazement? It was like my first taste of S’mores Pop-Tarts.
For all the stuff that’s been happening lately, those times might as well have happened back when Duke Roufus was a struggling up-and-comer in the Thirty Years’ War. If Maia is the UFC’s hottest fighter at the moment, Pettis might just be the coldest.
Losing to Rafael dos Anjos, Eddie Alvarez and Edson Barboza—arguably the three best lightweights alive right now—is not bad. But if you’re Pettis, and you (and everyone else) are used to an elite level for you, and you lose to them in succession, and you do it in less-than-impressive fashion, and you’re suddenly 29 with an irrevocable chunk of your prime lost to injuries? It’s still not so good.
As Jake Hughes of Fightland wrote after Pettis‘ loss to Barboza:
Pensive and seemingly reluctant to engage, Pettis did not appear to be the fighter of old. Barboza lit up his opponent with an array of vicious techniques: shattering leg kicks, thundering kicks to the body and a series of swift left hooks. No one has ever dominated the striking exchanges against Pettis in such startling fashion. After fifteen minutes of perdition, Pettis lost a unanimous decision to his foe.
Enter featherweight, the division where Pettis will debut on Fox. In the co-main event, Charles Oliveira, while tough, will fit inside Pettis‘ wheelhouse. Pettis should have a chance to work himself free and tee off in the center of the cage. In other words, Oliveira could help bring Pettis back out into in the open.
On the other hand, should Pettis falter, that’s really not good. He’s not fighting for his contract here or anything, but if you thought Oliveira was a big step down from Barboza, you ain’t seen nothing yet if he loses again.
Paige VanZant‘s Off The Dance Floor, Back in the Cage
I’m not one of these Paige VanZant haters. Why would anyone do that? I’m all for anything that puts MMA in a new light (or any light) for the previously unilluminated. That’s only good for business.
And yet, as cool as I thought it was when she finished second on Dancing With The Stars this spring (damn you, Nyle DiMarco!), her last UFC fight was less impressive.
As you might recall, that fight was a 4.5-round bloodying at the hands of Rose Namajunas. It was the 22-year-old’s first loss as a pro, but it reinforced doubts long felt in the community about VanZant‘s limitations. In short, she’s tough as all get-out, but that’s about it.
On Fox Saturday, the popular VanZant faces the less-popular Bec Rawlings. You may recall Rawlings as Angela Magana’s besty-toady from some season of The Ultimate Fighter. Not such a prominent position in reality television history.
Odds Shark has VanZant as a healthy -190 favorite Saturday. Fox and the UFC have to hope that VanZant has honed her chops for the occasion.
Lauzon and Miller Renew the Ultraviolence
The last time Joe Lauzon and Jim Miller fought, Lauzon needed 40 stitches to get back to normal.
Only one other thing can tell you more about this bout, which Miller won back in 2012: It netted them both a Fight of the Night bonus at UFC 155, a card headlined by Cain Velasquez chewing up Junior dos Santos to reclaim the heavyweight title.
Both men were contenders back then, and after years of war and wins and losses, they now appear to be easing over to the novelty lane. The 32-year-old Miller (26-8-1) just handled a badly shot Takanori Gomi in the opening bout of UFC 200. Also 32, Lauzon (26-11) is coming off a July knockout of Diego Sanchez that earned him—surprise!—a performance bonus.
It established Lauzon and his 14 career bonuses as a UFC record holder. For one month.
It seems a certain fighter just usurped Lauzon with his 15th career bonus. That fighter’s name is Diaz. Nate Diaz? Maybe you know him? Just had a little rematch of his own, with a guy named Conor McGregor? Right, that guy.
In any case, Lauzon will try to tie the bonus record again. It should be interesting. Maybe not 40-stitches kind of interesting, but maybe that’s not such a bad thing.
Scott Harris writes about MMA and other things for Bleacher Report. If you think you can consistently handle this kind of compelling content, follow Scott on Twitter.
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