UFC on FOX 22: VanZant vs. Waterson staff picks and predictions

Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for tomorrow night’s UFC on FOX 22: VanZant vs. Waterson fight card in Sacramento, California.

The BE staff has made its picks for UFC on FOX 22, and while Paige VanZant vs. Michelle Waterson figures to be an even matchup (at least by betting odds), only Ram Gilboa and Tim Burke are picking Waterson for the win. Ram is also the only one picking Sage Northcutt over Mickey Gall, which is the night’s co-main. We are in full agreement, however, that Urijah Faber wins his retirement fight and beats Brad Pickett.

Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.

Paige VanZant vs. Michelle Waterson

Mookie Alexander: I lean towards Zane’s reasoning for picking VanZant, but I’m increasingly concerned that the VanZant who fought Rawlings (admittedly a wholly different stylistic matchup) would lose quite handily to Waterson. The key factor here is how much VanZant develops her in-fight decision making, because she’s aggressive as hell but that can be costly against someone like Waterson, who usually wins by stoppage. This is a case where I think if Waterson does win, it’ll be with a submission off of her back if/when VanZant makes a mistake from top position. Of course, there’s also the factor of Waterson being out a pretty damn long time due to injuries. It’s a fascinating fight, and ultimately I’m going with Paige VanZant by unanimous decision.

Victor Rodriguez: This fight should be really, really good. Waterson’s got dynamic striking and fights with a ton of aggression and heart when she’s really on. The only problem with that is that it sometimes takes her a while to really heat things up and get to that point. Her guard game is dynamic and active, whether she’s using it to set up a submission off her back or create opportunities to get right up. That’s going to serve her very well, because Paige’s wrestling will be the biggest factor here, and she won’t make anything easy. VanZant keeps things busy with her top control, striking until her opponent gives her something else to work with. That gives Waterson less opportunity to work off her back. Paige should be the favorite here, and I don’t see Waterson controlling the grappling portion like Rose Namajunas did. Heart’s with Waterson, but smart money’s on Paige continuing in her winning ways. Paige VanZant by decision.

Ram Gilboa: DWTS runner-up versus the Karate Hottie? Am I watching UFC or Cinemax right now, right? Right? And of course, VanZant and Waterson are both super-legit fighters, looking to solidify themselves as a top-10 in the division – everyone saw how tough VanZant is, in her recent fifth round loss to Namajunas. So, I think the winner here gets to dethrone Luke Rockhold as the best looking UFC contender.

VanZant and Waterson are both strikers first and foremost, while VanZant probably gets the wrestling edge, and Waterson with the better general ground game. As Strikers, both show top level movement for MMA. But I see VanZant moving mostly aggressively forward and at times she’s very susceptible to hard counters and then retreats and gets lost while conducting a withdrawal; Waterson’s movement is more fluid laterally and in and out, she’ll leave opponent fighting air and constantly having to recalibrate. I see Waterson using counters and overcoming an apparent size and reach disadvantage to win the the stand-up part, the question is what happens then. My answer is Michelle Waterson by submission, round 2.

Zane Simon: I’d like to make this a lot more intricate, but I honestly think that Waterson is just too small for 115. She had trouble with Angela Magana’s size and Paige is a stronger, tougher opponent. I don’t think Waterson will keep it at range and when she doesn’t I think she gives up too much physicality. Paige VanZant by decision.

Staff picking PVZ: Bissell, Nick, Victor, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Zane, Phil
Staff picking Waterson: Ram, Tim

Mickey Gall vs. Sage Northcutt

Mookie Alexander: There’s no way you should be confident in picking either guy. Northcutt’s shortcomings are glaring, but he has won 3 times in the UFC. Mickey Gall has 3 wins in his entire MMA career and one of them is against an aged pro wrestler who has no business fighting literally anyone on the entire UFC roster. Northcutt has more in-cage experience and has great athletic gifts, but Gall figures to have the advantage on the ground and has been training at established, quality camps for years, whereas Sage does it off-and-on. I … guess I’m going with Mickey here? Mickey Gall by submission, round 2, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Sage didn’t blitz him out of the arena.

Victor Rodriguez: Northcutt moving back up to welterweight is a good move here, and his striking style and athleticism will serve him well with less weight to cut. But Gall’s the really interesting part of this equation to me. He’s a hungry grappler with a hard-nosed style, and now he’s the one training at Tristar, not Northcutt. All fights start standing, which is clearly where Sage will outshine Gall, but I have to wonder how his cardio will hold up. Gall’s not a stranger to 3-rounders (from back in his amateur career), and if he can replicate Bryan Barberena’s approach to this fight, it’s his. Mickey Gall by submission, round 3.

Ram Gilboa: Mickey Gall is a very confident guy, and his confidence is convincing. It doesn’t come off as fake, rehearsed in front of a mirror, flashy loud hyperbole. Just heavy as a train coming your way kind of talk. Peel that off though, and what do you have left? A guy who just beat CM Punk. So I don’t know. He’s supposed to be this devil grappler with solid boxing based striking. Maybe he is. He’s supposed to expose Northcutt – I have a feeling we’ll hear that line again too the next time the kid fights. Gall gets good moments but has a hard time taking and keeping Northcutt down, eventually succumbing to Northcutt by TKO, round 2.

Zane Simon: No reason to be sure about any of this. Northcutt is 10x more experienced than Mickey Gall, while still being relatively inexperienced. Still, Northcutt’s problems with aggressive grapplers haven’t gone away, and Gall may be the best athlete that Northcutt has faced in the UFC so far. Am I sure of that, no. But I think Gall is super confident in pressing his game and I think Northcutt is getting less confident in his. Mickey Gall via Submission, Round 1.

Phil Mackenzie: I quite want to pick Northcutt, simply because he’s so much more experienced. However, like the others (and I guess this is a theme for my picks on this card) I think Gall is just a bit more hard-nosed in his attitude. Gall also definitely has the advantage of a better camp, having even trained at Tristar a bit. Too many x-factors to really make an educated guess. Mickey Gall by submission, round 2.

Staff picking Gall: Bissell, Nick, Victor, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Tim, Zane, Phil
Staff picking Northcutt: Ram

Urijah Faber vs. Brad Pickett

Mookie Alexander: Brad Pickett is always going to be a favorite of mine, but he looks increasingly shopworn. Faber is obviously past his best, but he’s not put himself through the wars that Pickett has. I don’t think Pickett has the power to really get to Urijah, and Faber will be able to outscramble him on the mat. Thanks for the memories, Urijah; I think he gets one final submission win. Urijah Faber by guillotine choke, round 2.

Victor Rodriguez: Pickett’s underrated overall, especially his boxing but mostly his submission game. That means that this fight can be a lot closer in real life than on paper, and also more exciting. Both fighters are savvy veterans that are willing to put on a show, but Faber’s more well-rounded and one of the better wrestlers in that entire division. That and a fighter with some of the best submission defense overall. Urijah Faber by decision.

Ram Gilboa: Brad Pickett is a true grit kind of fighter, a striker – an all-arounder, by now – with sneaky basic dynamic striking that’ll mess you up. The 37 year old is never going to be too much of a wrestler, but if you manage to get past his strikes and take him down, the 12 years pro has more years on the mat behind him than a lot of MMA grapplers. That said, 38 years old Faber is not one of them. I think that along with fellow wrestler-grappler Jon Fitch, Faber is leaving the UFC as the best long-running contender never to become a champion. He wins his penultimate fight. Faber by decision.

Zane Simon: Faber is still tough as hell and while the game has passed him by a bit, he still knows how to scramble, grapple, and wrestle with the best of them. Add in an ever functional enough striking game and he should have what he needs to beat Pickett. Pickett relied heavily on his durability for years and that seems to be going. Urijah Faber via club-n-sub, round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: Two oddly similar fighters, both very reliant on sucking their opponents into multi-phase scrambling fights, out-willing and out-working them. Both men have lost a bit of a step, but Faber’s lost the step of a former WEC champion, and Pickett was a gatekeeper. I think this fight will be really fun, but unless Pickett hits the dipping countershot of his life, I can’t see how he wins a decision. Urijah Faber by submission, round 3.

Staff picking Faber: Bissell, Nick, Victor, Mookie, Ram, Stephie, Fraser, Tim, Zane, Phil
Staff picking Pickett:

Alan Jouban vs. Mike Perry

Mookie Alexander: This is ending in a knockout. It’s a great main card opener, but man oh man it’s hilarious that Mike Perry and his … personality, is on the same card as the Paige and Sage show. Jouban is the better striker, but is he more powerful than Perry? I’m not sure. Neither guy is exactly known for defense, sooooo give me Platinum Mike. Mike Perry by KO, round 1.

Victor Rodriguez: I’ve picked against Mike Perry since he arrived in the UFC and have been wrong every time. I want to pick against him again, because he’s largely a brawler and Jouban is a much more complete fighter. Still, I can’t bring myself to doing so this time. Jouban’s probably going to fall into Perry’s game and get drawn into another dogfight, and Perry’s ability to absorb strikes and hit with pure dad-strength (yes, it’s still a real thing) can be enough to end this. No, Jouban isn’t a dumb fighter. He’s still not on an advanced enough level to be immune to the sort of setups that Perry can use. Mike Perry by TKO.

Ram Gilboa: The young Muay Thai knockout machine or the experienced one? Controlled viciousness or somewhat more controlled viciousness? Jouban will probably be smart to take Perry down here. But even if he’ll choose the red pill – Perry kind of fights with his chin up, I think especially when he feels his opponent is on the verge of becoming a victim. Jouban survives, then Jouban by KO/TKO, round 1.

Zane Simon: I don’t want to pick Perry by KO, but Jouban has a ton of defensive openings and has been put out before. Perry has defense problems too, but his chin’s been solid so far, and his knack for timing and distance is excellent. Mike Perry via KO, Round 1.

Phil Mackenzie: Am I picking Mike Perry again? I’m picking Mike Perry again. But not without a lot of reservations. Jouban can absolutely get backed up and is not a defensive marvel by any means, but he’s been covering that more in recent fights with some really brutal counterpunching. So essentially I feel like it comes down to one type of exchange: can Perry feint inside and counter Jouban’s counter and get to where he’s vulnerable? I think he can. Just about. But he may just get melted. Mike Perry by TKO, round 2.

Staff picking Jouban: Ram, Fraser, Tim
Staff picking Perry: Bissell, Nick, Victor, Mookie, Stephie, Zane, Phil

Paul Craig vs. Luis Henrique da Silva

Zane Simon: Frank Waisten Jr. is basically Nikita Krylov, but Brazilian. So Brazilian Thrillz via TKO, Round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: The Bearjew is one of the few legitimately talented heavier fighters to come out of Europe. That said, he’s also largely reliant on sub grappling and I just think that Henrique da Silva is a level of physical force that he’s never fought against before, and unfortunately for Craig he’s going to get Frank Waisted. Luis Henrique da Silva by TKO, round 1

Staff picking Craig:
Staff picking da Silva: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Tim, Zane

Mizuto Hirota vs. Cole Miller

Victor Rodriguez: As much as I love Hirota’s fights, Miller’s got more advanced striking and underrated, extra-slick submission work. Even while being the lesser athlete, he’s got better cardio despite having the body I imagine Pete Hornberger from 30 Rock having. Cole Miller by submission.

Ram Gilboa: This card seems very evenly matched almost top to bottom. This fight – Miller dropped a lot of decisions and is becoming somewhat of a UFC journeyman in the featherweight division. Hirota has been around too and won’t get too far at feather at 35. I think this fight will come down to who’s hungrier at this point of his career – Hirota is still fresh in the UFC – and who can keep himself vigil through the late minutes. I think late mistakes will prove costly. I think Miller will get baffled at first but will figure Hirota out, get his shots in and take him down and take a decision W. Miller by TKO, round 2.

Zane Simon: Hirota could easily coast past Miller, if Miller’s head game is as far gone as it seems. Whatever Hirota’s limitations, you know he’ll show up in every round and work a high output game. Still, I think Hirota’s inability to dynamically shift a fight will let Miller actually stay in his comfort zone for once and get his own offense working. Cole Miller via decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Miller’s recent and well-publicized misgivings about the UFC as well as his dire performance for two rounds against Alex Caceres are absolutely troubling. However, aside from perhaps wrestling it’s difficult to name something that he’s not better at than Hirota, and he’s a bigger, more offensively capable fighter. If that same version of Cole Miller we saw then shows up, he’s going to lose a listless decision, but Cole Miller by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Hirota:
Staff picking Miller: Bissell, Nick, Victor, Ram, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Tim, Zane, Phil

Bryan Barberena vs. Colby Covington

Mookie Alexander: This is a bit of a hindsight thing on my part, but we now realize that Warlley Alves is teetering towards busted prospect due to not having any cardio past 6-7 minutes, and that Sage Northcutt is way too green to be picked to beat guys who aren’t at the bottom-rung of the UFC ladder. Now we come to Covington, whose only loss was to Alves in a fight he claimed he only took because he was broke, and otherwise had fractured ribs. The signs point to Covington winning this on the basis that he’s a great wrestler and Barberena doesn’t really excel at any one particular skill (perhaps apart from durability), but I’ll be damned if I don’t find his underdog role fun. Gimme another upset! Bryan Barberena by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: Bryan Barberena continues to be a deserved underdog. This is a brutal style matchup for him, but damn if he couldn’t pull off a sub or catch Covington standing and getting sloppy. Covington via decision is the pick, but I’ll be holding my breath for the upset.

Phil Mackenzie: Let’s go Barberena! That said, Covington isn’t going to wreck himself by outpacing his own ability to put out offense like Alves and Sage did. He’s going to throw terrible unorthodox strikes from the outside and then shoot millions of double legs for three straight rounds. Colby Covington by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Barberena: Nick, Ram, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser
Staff picking Covington: Bissell, Tim, Zane, Phil

Alex Morono vs. James Moontasri

Zane Simon: Morono fights a lot like Moontasri but with less athleticism and fitness. Morono’s workrate is better, so he may be able to just bully Moontasri, but I’m guessing he’ll get caught by something. James Moontasri via TKO, Round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: I don’t really like Moontasri’s style much at all. He blows tons of energy on inefficient kicks, can’t figure out how to disengage from the clinch. Morono has a really good chance of being able to beat him in the same way that he did Noke- simply by not going away. I’ll pick Moontasri to land something silly, but I’m not happy about it. James Moontasri by KO, round 1

Staff picking Morono: Tim
Staff picking Moontasri: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Phil, Zane

Josh Emmett vs. Scott Holtzman

Zane Simon: Emmett and Holtzman are a lot alike these days. Both stick and move pocket boxers with great power. But, I think Emmett’s diversity is just a little better than Holtzman’s. Holtzman tends to move well, slipping and ripping with power hooks, but Emmett digs to the body and throws kicks and changes things up enough to win exchanges. Josh Emmett via KO round 3.

Phil Mackenzie: A bit like Velickovic at the bottom of the card, Holtzman seems to have issues with taking fights over. He’s big, athletic, fairly well-rounded, but he tends to drift and let his opponent dictate the pace of the fight. He took three rounds to get Christodolou out of there, and getting dominated in the wrestling by Dober was just puzzling. Emmett may be less technically skilled, but he absolutely knows what he wants to do and is very tough to dissuade. I think that’s the difference. Josh Emmett by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Emmett: Bissell, Nick, Tim, Zane, Phil
Staff picking Holtzman: Mookie, Stephie, Fraser

Irene Aldana vs. Leslie Smith

Victor Rodriguez: Very tough test for Aldana here. Smith is a tested veteran with good boxing skills and great positional control when it comes to grappling. Aldana’s got far slicker boxing with great timing, use of range and killer instinct. Smith’s submission game is probably more advanced, and her submission defense is very good, but it doesn’t mean Aldana can’t catch her in a transition – but I find that highly unlikely. Smith will come out with forward pressure immediately to prevent Aldana from establishing tempo and getting in comfortable range, but Aldana will work counters, get settled and work combinations to the body and head for the finish. Irene Aldana by TKO, round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: Smith is simultaneously a tough test and someone who will give Aldana the fight she wants, namely a boxing match where her better power and accuracy should be able to shine. Smith can conceivably win the fight by uglying it up with volume and clinch striking, but Aldana is super tough. Irene Aldana by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: Aldana is an easy pick, but I have some trepidation just for how easy she can be to hit, and how disconnected some of the parts of her game are. She has yet to beat much notable competition. Smith will stand in and put a high volume fight on her, will pressure her. If Aldana can’t fight better moving backwards, or assert herself well to push Smith back, Smith could outpoint her. Still I think Aldana can hurt her and use that momentum to take over. Irene Aldana via decision.

Staff picking Aldana: Bissell, Nick, Victor, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Tim, Phil, Zane
Staff picking Smith:

Takeya Mizugaki vs. Eddie Wineland

Mookie Alexander: Wineland’s power is going to crack Mizugaki one too many times and the Japanese veteran will be KO’d once more. Eddie Wineland by KO, round 2.

Ram Gilboa: This should turn out to be a fun fight with scrambles start to finish. Both guys have good and varied attack, and both can get careless defending and caught standing up or on the ground. Wineland needs his reach advantage and a slow target to get things done easy, and I don’t think he has enough of either of those here. Mizugaki by decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Wineland looked like he was done before that Saenz fight, but looked reinvigorated when he knocked Saenz out. Some of it was doubtless fighting someone who only really works well in the clinch, but he also undeniably looked infinitely improved from his woeful, uninterested performance against Caraway. While I think Mizugaki would probably win if they fought in their primes simply by out-toughing and out-pacing Wineland, he’s looking the more shopworn of the two at this point. Eddie Wineland by TKO, round 2.

Zane Simon: It feels like it’s been too long since I’ve been properly impressed by Mizugaki and I’m starting to worry that he’s losing a half step with athleticism and durability. Not being the most athletic guy to begin with put him in a position to really rely on being durable. A little slower and a little easier to break may be putting him in a real bad situation going forward. Wineland is definitely not as quick as he was, but the biggest question for him is how willing is he to pull the trigger. As long as he’s willing, I think he wins. Eddie Wineland via decision.

Staff picking Mizugaki: Bissell, Ram, Fraser
Staff picking Wineland: Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Tim, Phil, Zane

Hector Sandoval vs. Fredy Serrano

Victor Rodriguez: While Serrano may be a world-class wrestler, the rest of his game isn’t as polished. That’s going to cause a ton of problems for him here, because Sandoval is more complete as a fighter. Sandoval’s an Alpha Male fighter, but still mostly reliant on his athleticism than technique. Serrano could be able to crack him standing, but there’s really more of a chance this being an ugly fight that Serrano ends up taking by decision because of his wrestling and top control. Fredy Serrano via meh.

Phil Mackenzie: Serrano has been a quiet surprise, in that he’s been able to leverage pure wrestling and athleticism into a much more effective style than I would have expected. Sandoval got flung in at the deep end with Reis, and while he’s an undersized flyweight who I think will get tossed a few times, he’s also more aggressive and skilled as a grappler. Hector Sandoval by unanimous decision

Zane Simon: I don’t trust Serrano to beat any good athlete with a UFC ready game. He’s got takedowns, but very little grappling control. He’s got big wild strikes, but very little actual boxing or kickboxing. Sandoval is a seasoned vet that’s technically better than Serrano everywhere other than lifting people up and putting them on the mat. And at flyweight I just don’t think wrestling alone is enough to make a name. Hector Sandoval via decision.

Staff picking Sandoval: Nick, Phil, Zane
Staff picking Serrano: Bissell, Victor, Ram, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Tim

Sultan Aliev vs. Bojan Velickovic

Victor Rodriguez: Aliev is a good fighter, but he can be bullied. This was most evident in his fights with Doug Marshall in Bellator and Kenny Robertson in the UFC. Velickovic is a great athlete and an explosive striker with good takedown defense. Bojan Velickovic by TKO.

Phil Mackenzie: Two fighters that… seem like they should be better than they are? Aliev has a ton of obvious grappling skill and credentials, but struggles to put it into play. Velickovic is good at everything, big and athletic, but seems to drift through fights focused more on defense than offense. I think he has the better basic style but wouldn’t be surprised to see him lose just on aggression Bojan Velickovic by unanimous decision

Zane Simon: Velickovic strikes me as a jack of all trades fighter. Not bad anywhere, but not good enough anywhere to really dominate most fighters. There’s an argument that he should be 0-2 in the UFC to date. Aliev may have taken a bad KO loss last time out, but he’s got some pop in his hands and he’s a very good wrestler. I don’t think Velcikovic can keep that fight at range and if it’s a scrambling back and forth bout, I think Aliev wins that. Sultan Aliev via decision.

Staff picking Aliev: Tim, Zane, Stephie
Staff picking Velickovic: Bissell, Nick, Victor, Mookie, Fraser, Phil

Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for tomorrow night’s UFC on FOX 22: VanZant vs. Waterson fight card in Sacramento, California.

The BE staff has made its picks for UFC on FOX 22, and while Paige VanZant vs. Michelle Waterson figures to be an even matchup (at least by betting odds), only Ram Gilboa and Tim Burke are picking Waterson for the win. Ram is also the only one picking Sage Northcutt over Mickey Gall, which is the night’s co-main. We are in full agreement, however, that Urijah Faber wins his retirement fight and beats Brad Pickett.

Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.

Paige VanZant vs. Michelle Waterson

Mookie Alexander: I lean towards Zane’s reasoning for picking VanZant, but I’m increasingly concerned that the VanZant who fought Rawlings (admittedly a wholly different stylistic matchup) would lose quite handily to Waterson. The key factor here is how much VanZant develops her in-fight decision making, because she’s aggressive as hell but that can be costly against someone like Waterson, who usually wins by stoppage. This is a case where I think if Waterson does win, it’ll be with a submission off of her back if/when VanZant makes a mistake from top position. Of course, there’s also the factor of Waterson being out a pretty damn long time due to injuries. It’s a fascinating fight, and ultimately I’m going with Paige VanZant by unanimous decision.

Victor Rodriguez: This fight should be really, really good. Waterson’s got dynamic striking and fights with a ton of aggression and heart when she’s really on. The only problem with that is that it sometimes takes her a while to really heat things up and get to that point. Her guard game is dynamic and active, whether she’s using it to set up a submission off her back or create opportunities to get right up. That’s going to serve her very well, because Paige’s wrestling will be the biggest factor here, and she won’t make anything easy. VanZant keeps things busy with her top control, striking until her opponent gives her something else to work with. That gives Waterson less opportunity to work off her back. Paige should be the favorite here, and I don’t see Waterson controlling the grappling portion like Rose Namajunas did. Heart’s with Waterson, but smart money’s on Paige continuing in her winning ways. Paige VanZant by decision.

Ram Gilboa: DWTS runner-up versus the Karate Hottie? Am I watching UFC or Cinemax right now, right? Right? And of course, VanZant and Waterson are both super-legit fighters, looking to solidify themselves as a top-10 in the division – everyone saw how tough VanZant is, in her recent fifth round loss to Namajunas. So, I think the winner here gets to dethrone Luke Rockhold as the best looking UFC contender.

VanZant and Waterson are both strikers first and foremost, while VanZant probably gets the wrestling edge, and Waterson with the better general ground game. As Strikers, both show top level movement for MMA. But I see VanZant moving mostly aggressively forward and at times she’s very susceptible to hard counters and then retreats and gets lost while conducting a withdrawal; Waterson’s movement is more fluid laterally and in and out, she’ll leave opponent fighting air and constantly having to recalibrate. I see Waterson using counters and overcoming an apparent size and reach disadvantage to win the the stand-up part, the question is what happens then. My answer is Michelle Waterson by submission, round 2.

Zane Simon: I’d like to make this a lot more intricate, but I honestly think that Waterson is just too small for 115. She had trouble with Angela Magana’s size and Paige is a stronger, tougher opponent. I don’t think Waterson will keep it at range and when she doesn’t I think she gives up too much physicality. Paige VanZant by decision.

Staff picking PVZ: Bissell, Nick, Victor, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Zane, Phil
Staff picking Waterson: Ram, Tim

Mickey Gall vs. Sage Northcutt

Mookie Alexander: There’s no way you should be confident in picking either guy. Northcutt’s shortcomings are glaring, but he has won 3 times in the UFC. Mickey Gall has 3 wins in his entire MMA career and one of them is against an aged pro wrestler who has no business fighting literally anyone on the entire UFC roster. Northcutt has more in-cage experience and has great athletic gifts, but Gall figures to have the advantage on the ground and has been training at established, quality camps for years, whereas Sage does it off-and-on. I … guess I’m going with Mickey here? Mickey Gall by submission, round 2, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Sage didn’t blitz him out of the arena.

Victor Rodriguez: Northcutt moving back up to welterweight is a good move here, and his striking style and athleticism will serve him well with less weight to cut. But Gall’s the really interesting part of this equation to me. He’s a hungry grappler with a hard-nosed style, and now he’s the one training at Tristar, not Northcutt. All fights start standing, which is clearly where Sage will outshine Gall, but I have to wonder how his cardio will hold up. Gall’s not a stranger to 3-rounders (from back in his amateur career), and if he can replicate Bryan Barberena’s approach to this fight, it’s his. Mickey Gall by submission, round 3.

Ram Gilboa: Mickey Gall is a very confident guy, and his confidence is convincing. It doesn’t come off as fake, rehearsed in front of a mirror, flashy loud hyperbole. Just heavy as a train coming your way kind of talk. Peel that off though, and what do you have left? A guy who just beat CM Punk. So I don’t know. He’s supposed to be this devil grappler with solid boxing based striking. Maybe he is. He’s supposed to expose Northcutt – I have a feeling we’ll hear that line again too the next time the kid fights. Gall gets good moments but has a hard time taking and keeping Northcutt down, eventually succumbing to Northcutt by TKO, round 2.

Zane Simon: No reason to be sure about any of this. Northcutt is 10x more experienced than Mickey Gall, while still being relatively inexperienced. Still, Northcutt’s problems with aggressive grapplers haven’t gone away, and Gall may be the best athlete that Northcutt has faced in the UFC so far. Am I sure of that, no. But I think Gall is super confident in pressing his game and I think Northcutt is getting less confident in his. Mickey Gall via Submission, Round 1.

Phil Mackenzie: I quite want to pick Northcutt, simply because he’s so much more experienced. However, like the others (and I guess this is a theme for my picks on this card) I think Gall is just a bit more hard-nosed in his attitude. Gall also definitely has the advantage of a better camp, having even trained at Tristar a bit. Too many x-factors to really make an educated guess. Mickey Gall by submission, round 2.

Staff picking Gall: Bissell, Nick, Victor, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Tim, Zane, Phil
Staff picking Northcutt: Ram

Urijah Faber vs. Brad Pickett

Mookie Alexander: Brad Pickett is always going to be a favorite of mine, but he looks increasingly shopworn. Faber is obviously past his best, but he’s not put himself through the wars that Pickett has. I don’t think Pickett has the power to really get to Urijah, and Faber will be able to outscramble him on the mat. Thanks for the memories, Urijah; I think he gets one final submission win. Urijah Faber by guillotine choke, round 2.

Victor Rodriguez: Pickett’s underrated overall, especially his boxing but mostly his submission game. That means that this fight can be a lot closer in real life than on paper, and also more exciting. Both fighters are savvy veterans that are willing to put on a show, but Faber’s more well-rounded and one of the better wrestlers in that entire division. That and a fighter with some of the best submission defense overall. Urijah Faber by decision.

Ram Gilboa: Brad Pickett is a true grit kind of fighter, a striker – an all-arounder, by now – with sneaky basic dynamic striking that’ll mess you up. The 37 year old is never going to be too much of a wrestler, but if you manage to get past his strikes and take him down, the 12 years pro has more years on the mat behind him than a lot of MMA grapplers. That said, 38 years old Faber is not one of them. I think that along with fellow wrestler-grappler Jon Fitch, Faber is leaving the UFC as the best long-running contender never to become a champion. He wins his penultimate fight. Faber by decision.

Zane Simon: Faber is still tough as hell and while the game has passed him by a bit, he still knows how to scramble, grapple, and wrestle with the best of them. Add in an ever functional enough striking game and he should have what he needs to beat Pickett. Pickett relied heavily on his durability for years and that seems to be going. Urijah Faber via club-n-sub, round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: Two oddly similar fighters, both very reliant on sucking their opponents into multi-phase scrambling fights, out-willing and out-working them. Both men have lost a bit of a step, but Faber’s lost the step of a former WEC champion, and Pickett was a gatekeeper. I think this fight will be really fun, but unless Pickett hits the dipping countershot of his life, I can’t see how he wins a decision. Urijah Faber by submission, round 3.

Staff picking Faber: Bissell, Nick, Victor, Mookie, Ram, Stephie, Fraser, Tim, Zane, Phil
Staff picking Pickett:

Alan Jouban vs. Mike Perry

Mookie Alexander: This is ending in a knockout. It’s a great main card opener, but man oh man it’s hilarious that Mike Perry and his … personality, is on the same card as the Paige and Sage show. Jouban is the better striker, but is he more powerful than Perry? I’m not sure. Neither guy is exactly known for defense, sooooo give me Platinum Mike. Mike Perry by KO, round 1.

Victor Rodriguez: I’ve picked against Mike Perry since he arrived in the UFC and have been wrong every time. I want to pick against him again, because he’s largely a brawler and Jouban is a much more complete fighter. Still, I can’t bring myself to doing so this time. Jouban’s probably going to fall into Perry’s game and get drawn into another dogfight, and Perry’s ability to absorb strikes and hit with pure dad-strength (yes, it’s still a real thing) can be enough to end this. No, Jouban isn’t a dumb fighter. He’s still not on an advanced enough level to be immune to the sort of setups that Perry can use. Mike Perry by TKO.

Ram Gilboa: The young Muay Thai knockout machine or the experienced one? Controlled viciousness or somewhat more controlled viciousness? Jouban will probably be smart to take Perry down here. But even if he’ll choose the red pill – Perry kind of fights with his chin up, I think especially when he feels his opponent is on the verge of becoming a victim. Jouban survives, then Jouban by KO/TKO, round 1.

Zane Simon: I don’t want to pick Perry by KO, but Jouban has a ton of defensive openings and has been put out before. Perry has defense problems too, but his chin’s been solid so far, and his knack for timing and distance is excellent. Mike Perry via KO, Round 1.

Phil Mackenzie: Am I picking Mike Perry again? I’m picking Mike Perry again. But not without a lot of reservations. Jouban can absolutely get backed up and is not a defensive marvel by any means, but he’s been covering that more in recent fights with some really brutal counterpunching. So essentially I feel like it comes down to one type of exchange: can Perry feint inside and counter Jouban’s counter and get to where he’s vulnerable? I think he can. Just about. But he may just get melted. Mike Perry by TKO, round 2.

Staff picking Jouban: Ram, Fraser, Tim
Staff picking Perry: Bissell, Nick, Victor, Mookie, Stephie, Zane, Phil

Paul Craig vs. Luis Henrique da Silva

Zane Simon: Frank Waisten Jr. is basically Nikita Krylov, but Brazilian. So Brazilian Thrillz via TKO, Round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: The Bearjew is one of the few legitimately talented heavier fighters to come out of Europe. That said, he’s also largely reliant on sub grappling and I just think that Henrique da Silva is a level of physical force that he’s never fought against before, and unfortunately for Craig he’s going to get Frank Waisted. Luis Henrique da Silva by TKO, round 1

Staff picking Craig:
Staff picking da Silva: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Tim, Zane

Mizuto Hirota vs. Cole Miller

Victor Rodriguez: As much as I love Hirota’s fights, Miller’s got more advanced striking and underrated, extra-slick submission work. Even while being the lesser athlete, he’s got better cardio despite having the body I imagine Pete Hornberger from 30 Rock having. Cole Miller by submission.

Ram Gilboa: This card seems very evenly matched almost top to bottom. This fight – Miller dropped a lot of decisions and is becoming somewhat of a UFC journeyman in the featherweight division. Hirota has been around too and won’t get too far at feather at 35. I think this fight will come down to who’s hungrier at this point of his career – Hirota is still fresh in the UFC – and who can keep himself vigil through the late minutes. I think late mistakes will prove costly. I think Miller will get baffled at first but will figure Hirota out, get his shots in and take him down and take a decision W. Miller by TKO, round 2.

Zane Simon: Hirota could easily coast past Miller, if Miller’s head game is as far gone as it seems. Whatever Hirota’s limitations, you know he’ll show up in every round and work a high output game. Still, I think Hirota’s inability to dynamically shift a fight will let Miller actually stay in his comfort zone for once and get his own offense working. Cole Miller via decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Miller’s recent and well-publicized misgivings about the UFC as well as his dire performance for two rounds against Alex Caceres are absolutely troubling. However, aside from perhaps wrestling it’s difficult to name something that he’s not better at than Hirota, and he’s a bigger, more offensively capable fighter. If that same version of Cole Miller we saw then shows up, he’s going to lose a listless decision, but Cole Miller by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Hirota:
Staff picking Miller: Bissell, Nick, Victor, Ram, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Tim, Zane, Phil

Bryan Barberena vs. Colby Covington

Mookie Alexander: This is a bit of a hindsight thing on my part, but we now realize that Warlley Alves is teetering towards busted prospect due to not having any cardio past 6-7 minutes, and that Sage Northcutt is way too green to be picked to beat guys who aren’t at the bottom-rung of the UFC ladder. Now we come to Covington, whose only loss was to Alves in a fight he claimed he only took because he was broke, and otherwise had fractured ribs. The signs point to Covington winning this on the basis that he’s a great wrestler and Barberena doesn’t really excel at any one particular skill (perhaps apart from durability), but I’ll be damned if I don’t find his underdog role fun. Gimme another upset! Bryan Barberena by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: Bryan Barberena continues to be a deserved underdog. This is a brutal style matchup for him, but damn if he couldn’t pull off a sub or catch Covington standing and getting sloppy. Covington via decision is the pick, but I’ll be holding my breath for the upset.

Phil Mackenzie: Let’s go Barberena! That said, Covington isn’t going to wreck himself by outpacing his own ability to put out offense like Alves and Sage did. He’s going to throw terrible unorthodox strikes from the outside and then shoot millions of double legs for three straight rounds. Colby Covington by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Barberena: Nick, Ram, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser
Staff picking Covington: Bissell, Tim, Zane, Phil

Alex Morono vs. James Moontasri

Zane Simon: Morono fights a lot like Moontasri but with less athleticism and fitness. Morono’s workrate is better, so he may be able to just bully Moontasri, but I’m guessing he’ll get caught by something. James Moontasri via TKO, Round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: I don’t really like Moontasri’s style much at all. He blows tons of energy on inefficient kicks, can’t figure out how to disengage from the clinch. Morono has a really good chance of being able to beat him in the same way that he did Noke- simply by not going away. I’ll pick Moontasri to land something silly, but I’m not happy about it. James Moontasri by KO, round 1

Staff picking Morono: Tim
Staff picking Moontasri: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Phil, Zane

Josh Emmett vs. Scott Holtzman

Zane Simon: Emmett and Holtzman are a lot alike these days. Both stick and move pocket boxers with great power. But, I think Emmett’s diversity is just a little better than Holtzman’s. Holtzman tends to move well, slipping and ripping with power hooks, but Emmett digs to the body and throws kicks and changes things up enough to win exchanges. Josh Emmett via KO round 3.

Phil Mackenzie: A bit like Velickovic at the bottom of the card, Holtzman seems to have issues with taking fights over. He’s big, athletic, fairly well-rounded, but he tends to drift and let his opponent dictate the pace of the fight. He took three rounds to get Christodolou out of there, and getting dominated in the wrestling by Dober was just puzzling. Emmett may be less technically skilled, but he absolutely knows what he wants to do and is very tough to dissuade. I think that’s the difference. Josh Emmett by unanimous decision.

Staff picking Emmett: Bissell, Nick, Tim, Zane, Phil
Staff picking Holtzman: Mookie, Stephie, Fraser

Irene Aldana vs. Leslie Smith

Victor Rodriguez: Very tough test for Aldana here. Smith is a tested veteran with good boxing skills and great positional control when it comes to grappling. Aldana’s got far slicker boxing with great timing, use of range and killer instinct. Smith’s submission game is probably more advanced, and her submission defense is very good, but it doesn’t mean Aldana can’t catch her in a transition – but I find that highly unlikely. Smith will come out with forward pressure immediately to prevent Aldana from establishing tempo and getting in comfortable range, but Aldana will work counters, get settled and work combinations to the body and head for the finish. Irene Aldana by TKO, round 2.

Phil Mackenzie: Smith is simultaneously a tough test and someone who will give Aldana the fight she wants, namely a boxing match where her better power and accuracy should be able to shine. Smith can conceivably win the fight by uglying it up with volume and clinch striking, but Aldana is super tough. Irene Aldana by unanimous decision.

Zane Simon: Aldana is an easy pick, but I have some trepidation just for how easy she can be to hit, and how disconnected some of the parts of her game are. She has yet to beat much notable competition. Smith will stand in and put a high volume fight on her, will pressure her. If Aldana can’t fight better moving backwards, or assert herself well to push Smith back, Smith could outpoint her. Still I think Aldana can hurt her and use that momentum to take over. Irene Aldana via decision.

Staff picking Aldana: Bissell, Nick, Victor, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Tim, Phil, Zane
Staff picking Smith:

Takeya Mizugaki vs. Eddie Wineland

Mookie Alexander: Wineland’s power is going to crack Mizugaki one too many times and the Japanese veteran will be KO’d once more. Eddie Wineland by KO, round 2.

Ram Gilboa: This should turn out to be a fun fight with scrambles start to finish. Both guys have good and varied attack, and both can get careless defending and caught standing up or on the ground. Wineland needs his reach advantage and a slow target to get things done easy, and I don’t think he has enough of either of those here. Mizugaki by decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Wineland looked like he was done before that Saenz fight, but looked reinvigorated when he knocked Saenz out. Some of it was doubtless fighting someone who only really works well in the clinch, but he also undeniably looked infinitely improved from his woeful, uninterested performance against Caraway. While I think Mizugaki would probably win if they fought in their primes simply by out-toughing and out-pacing Wineland, he’s looking the more shopworn of the two at this point. Eddie Wineland by TKO, round 2.

Zane Simon: It feels like it’s been too long since I’ve been properly impressed by Mizugaki and I’m starting to worry that he’s losing a half step with athleticism and durability. Not being the most athletic guy to begin with put him in a position to really rely on being durable. A little slower and a little easier to break may be putting him in a real bad situation going forward. Wineland is definitely not as quick as he was, but the biggest question for him is how willing is he to pull the trigger. As long as he’s willing, I think he wins. Eddie Wineland via decision.

Staff picking Mizugaki: Bissell, Ram, Fraser
Staff picking Wineland: Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Tim, Phil, Zane

Hector Sandoval vs. Fredy Serrano

Victor Rodriguez: While Serrano may be a world-class wrestler, the rest of his game isn’t as polished. That’s going to cause a ton of problems for him here, because Sandoval is more complete as a fighter. Sandoval’s an Alpha Male fighter, but still mostly reliant on his athleticism than technique. Serrano could be able to crack him standing, but there’s really more of a chance this being an ugly fight that Serrano ends up taking by decision because of his wrestling and top control. Fredy Serrano via meh.

Phil Mackenzie: Serrano has been a quiet surprise, in that he’s been able to leverage pure wrestling and athleticism into a much more effective style than I would have expected. Sandoval got flung in at the deep end with Reis, and while he’s an undersized flyweight who I think will get tossed a few times, he’s also more aggressive and skilled as a grappler. Hector Sandoval by unanimous decision

Zane Simon: I don’t trust Serrano to beat any good athlete with a UFC ready game. He’s got takedowns, but very little grappling control. He’s got big wild strikes, but very little actual boxing or kickboxing. Sandoval is a seasoned vet that’s technically better than Serrano everywhere other than lifting people up and putting them on the mat. And at flyweight I just don’t think wrestling alone is enough to make a name. Hector Sandoval via decision.

Staff picking Sandoval: Nick, Phil, Zane
Staff picking Serrano: Bissell, Victor, Ram, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Tim

Sultan Aliev vs. Bojan Velickovic

Victor Rodriguez: Aliev is a good fighter, but he can be bullied. This was most evident in his fights with Doug Marshall in Bellator and Kenny Robertson in the UFC. Velickovic is a great athlete and an explosive striker with good takedown defense. Bojan Velickovic by TKO.

Phil Mackenzie: Two fighters that… seem like they should be better than they are? Aliev has a ton of obvious grappling skill and credentials, but struggles to put it into play. Velickovic is good at everything, big and athletic, but seems to drift through fights focused more on defense than offense. I think he has the better basic style but wouldn’t be surprised to see him lose just on aggression Bojan Velickovic by unanimous decision

Zane Simon: Velickovic strikes me as a jack of all trades fighter. Not bad anywhere, but not good enough anywhere to really dominate most fighters. There’s an argument that he should be 0-2 in the UFC to date. Aliev may have taken a bad KO loss last time out, but he’s got some pop in his hands and he’s a very good wrestler. I don’t think Velcikovic can keep that fight at range and if it’s a scrambling back and forth bout, I think Aliev wins that. Sultan Aliev via decision.

Staff picking Aliev: Tim, Zane, Stephie
Staff picking Velickovic: Bissell, Nick, Victor, Mookie, Fraser, Phil