Phil and David break down everything you need to know about Cyborg vs. Holm at UFC 219, and everything you don’t about Wil E Coyote symbolism.
Cris Cyborg vs. Holly Holm headlines UFC 219 this December 30, 2017 at the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada.
One sentence summary:
David: It’s muscle versus metal in this weekend’s subgenre of Fox TV mismatched competition
Phil: You beat Ronda Rousey, you must be very brave, but nobody withstands… The Machine (spooky music)
Stats:
Record: Cris Cyborg 18-1-1 NC | Holly Holm 11-3
Odds: Cris Cyborg -355 | Holly Holm +320
History / Introduction to Both Fighters
Phil: Remember when Cyborg had destroyed WMMA forever by testing positive after massacring Hiroko Yamanaka? Good times. There was a not inconsiderable amount of bleating about how the chain of memorable fighters from Carano to Cyborg had been broken, and how there was no-one else that could take up the mantle. I mean, there was that one blond Judoka, but she was almost certainly too raw to be able to be the kind of medium-grade star that was needed…
Now we basically have Cyborg here to reclaim the throne that was once hers, although almost by default. Rousey took WMMA to new heights, before plummeting off them with the kind of rapidity which is normally reserved for Wile E. Coyote chasing the Road Runner. Jedrzejczyk just got bopped by Namajunas. Cris Cyborg, you’re our only hope! Again!
David: Are you calling a once-dubbed-sport killer, Phil? Oh, sorry. That was Dana. About an MMA coach. Cyborg is that rare phenom who began as a phenom, and hasn’t lost any of that phenom juju. It’s easy to get lost in the narrative that “well, bro, female MMA just isn’t as good as regular homosexual skinhead wrestling”. Granted, female MMA has a long ways to go, but that’s par for the course in any nascent division. To that end, it’s easy to lose sight of what Cyborg is doing. She’s not just some raw beast of a woman grabbing humans out of their buildings arcade Rampage style. She’s a legitimate talent through and through. And it’s not just seeing her look competent in a Muay Thai fight against Jorina Baars. It’s the way even her grappling has accelerated. These aren’t the days of ‘let’s see if Gina falls for the old pulling her into mount on me’ trick. She’s worked hard to be multi-dimensional. As a result, she has NO equal. That’s an accomplishment in and of itself.
Phil: Welcome to Urijah Faber-ville, Holly Holm. Since beating Rousey, Holm has quietly become one of those near-mythical creatures in the modern UFC: a mid-level blonde draw. She’s quietly being slotted into exactly the same positions as Faber would be- beefing up high-end TV cards, or being used as title shot fodder when there’s no-one else available. She apparently drove a hard bargain in terms of pay for this fight, and frankly I’m glad to hear it. Her career was somewhat mismanaged up to this point, what with her taking fights against incredibly tough and relatively unknown fighters like GDR and Shevchenko. If her team has figured out that they can leverage the UFC’s desperation for stars into a payday, then all the better.
David: Holm is in a tough spot. She’s an elite-ish fighter. She’ll never command the level of status (beyond simply being champ) she received for kicking Ronda’s head off. Even her highlight packages attest to this. Joe Rogan does his level best to act like Holm is a vicious knockout artist by showing fifty different angles of Holm levitating Ronda’s brain cells – with a nice footnote assist by Bethe. Technically, it’s warranted. Holm has a lot of TKO’s. But a dynamic, sudden finisher she is not. And she’s only 1-3 in her last four. But I appreciate this matchup. It’s not the kind of fight that will challenge Cyborg’s status, but it should do a good job of challenging Cyborg’s skillset.
What’s at stake?
David: For Cyborg, everything. In MMA, status and symbolism go hand in hand. The sport doesn’t have a long history, so fans and observers puff it up as best they can (hence crap like Pride vs. UFC). If she loses, she loses both.
Phil: Yeah, it’s a chance for Holm to shock the world again. Alternatively, it’s Cyborg’s chance to cement that destroyer reputation… as long as she destroys. If she picks Holm apart in a tepid fight, people will be unhappy, and there’s a solid chance that, like the GdR fight, they might even think that Holm won for some baffling reason.
Where do they want it?
David: Cyborg was always a good technical striker. She was simply rarely in the fights to illustrate her toolset. Still, she entered the sport somewhat unrefined. Where before she would box and brawl – something that plays out as a pattern in her record (in her first 8 fights, four of her wins went beyond round 1) – she ultimately evolved to simply box urgently. That’s a huge difference from “OMG she’s just ragdolling these women!”. Yes, we’re still brutal beatdown after brutal beatdown, but it’s the how that continues to change. She has the kind of movement, speed, and tactical awareness to support her raw power that would be unfair in any division, man OR woman. People complain about the Tonya Evinger fight (mostly casuals, to be fair), but I thought she was displaying some pretty grown ass movement, and economy. Patrick Wyman identified this difference in his preview – that brawlers, either consciously or subconsciously, eventually learn to hone their pressure into something as much physical as it is mental. Eventually the economy of motion becomes organic – for opponents, it’s just as taxing to punched in the face as it is to be threatened with being punched in the face. It’s like the old schoolyard ‘made ya flinch’ game, but in a more professional, thoughtful (?) setting (but with a much more violent ending). The bittersweet part of this is that Cyborg doesn’t appear to have a real foil. So whether or not she’s forced to be dynamic away from her comfort zone is something Holm won’t test. Which doesn’t mean Holm is not a test at all (I mean, almost, but let’s pretend there’s at least some semblance of danger here).
Phil: I find that I have to be extremely cautious when discussing Cyborg. She looks very good, but level of competition always, always has to be taken into account when discussing technical acumen. Someone can look amazing when beating up on relative neophytes, and have subtle flaws open up into gaping chasms against better competition. That being said, Cyborg has improved greatly since her days of pulling mount against Gina Carano. Her fight against Tonya Evinger was an excellent display of removing all risk from a matchup, as she carefully tracked Evinger around the octagon with small pressure footwork and used a hard jab to push Evinger’s head into where she could land her right overhand. She has a hard leg kick, which I suspect she will be having to employ liberally in this fight, as Holm is likely to try and fight from absolute maximum range.
It’s also worth remembering that Cyborg’s bread and butter was historically in the clinch, and while Holm has been excellent at disengaging from clinch exchanges (as per the Rousey fight), she doesn’t throw much offense there. Cyborg has a solid array of trip takedowns and a brutal Thai plum.
David: Holm hasn’t changed much even before her fight with Rousey, which is part of what explains her recent losses. But in context, only the loss to Valentina Shevchenko really stands out as – ‘damn, Holm got styled on’. Holly relies on a strong base, with an attack that kind of stutters forward with more movement than strikes, but that is backed up suitably with dangerous options. She has her patented left high kick, but she’s swift with her leg attacks. Her combinations are largely attacks of function rather than form. She doesn’t go in swinging with the intent of damaging. She goes in swinging when proximity gives her the green light. In some ways, this bodes well (to the extent that anything does) for Holm. She won’t get caught pressing forward, or overstaying her welcome. Cyborg won’t have a lot of obvious counter options, which is what I like tactically about this fight. Shevchenko offers an attack too unique to the division to draw insight from – for the most part, we’ve seen how far raw competence can take a fighter, and Holm is one of the most competent fighters in women’s MMA.
Phil: A lot of Holm’s style feels like it’s based around determining the exact range that an opponent fights at via throwing volume into space. Some fighters use padding jabs for this, but Holm just tends to toss the kitchen sink at the air directly in front of the opponent. Like teammate Carlos Condit, she does close distance, behind karate-esque punch rushes, but tends to like to measure distance more from range by prodding with the oblique kick. If she gains her range for kicks, she’s actually a much more effective fighter, and can slip a hard left body kick under the ribs or ding people upside the head. Her primary problem is obviously her punching mechanics: she just cannot step forward onto her strikes, and while she has a smooth left cross if the opponent rushes in, if she throws virtually any other strike she tends to fall forward into it. Thus, fighters like Shevchenko and GdR were able to soundly outbox her by circling away from her kicks and forcing her to lead.
Insight from past fights?
David: It’s hard to really parse much of anything from their previous fights. Cyborg has changed too much, otherwise I’d argue some similarities to the striking portion of Cyborg’s bouts with Marloes Coenen – a much different fighter, but who shared Holm’s way of finding success with singular offense. The biggest factor will be the gap control between the two women; can Holm find enough success at range to grow comfortable not feeling compelled to constantly pressure or counter. It’s the kind of fight where, if we squint our eyes and use our imagination, envisioning a Holm win would see very low output defeating a lack of urgency. What the hell that even means, I don’t know. But Holm has to be risk averse to win, which means relying on Cyborg believing she has more time than she has. That I’m struggling to describe what this looks like is why I’m (spoiler alert) picking Cyborg, but I think Holm is fit for specific strategic and tactical challenges here that can’t be dismissed out of hand.
Phil: As mentioned, GdR and Shevchenko had success pulling Holm into counter right hands. The question is if Cyborg can do something like that if she chooses to fight a more defensive game plan. She came forward pretty relentlessly in her kickboxing bout against Jorina Baars, which says both good and bad things for Holm’s chances: on the one hand, it indicates that Cyborg can come forward consistently, and opens up opportunities for counters. On the other hand, it also showed that Justino is extremely durable and very difficult to dissuade, even against a massive skill discrepancy and over a five round fight.
X-Factors
David: There are probably more x-factors outside of the cage than inside. Both are as durable a fighter as you’ll find inside the octagon.
Phil: I’m curious to see how well Cyborg’s team (especially Jason Parillo) has prepared her for Holm’s kicking game. Shevchenko had the kickboxing experience to be able to parry Holm’s oblique kick and counter, but I expect Holm to attack Cyborg’s heavy lead leg with that strike.
Prognostication
David: Like I keep saying, Holm is a tactical challenge for Cyborg. But in order for Holm to turn tactics into thrashing, she needs to find better setups for her nuclear option (left high kick) – that means a commitment to stronger punch selection, better defense, the works, basically. Cyborg needs to be inert for Holm to take significant rounds off Cyborg, and that’s just not something she can do without taking the right risks. Against, Cyborg, I don’t believe the “right risk” actively exists. Especially for a fighter like Holm, who only has one difference maker (especially when combined with the fact that Cyborg has a good chin). Cris Cyborg by Decision.
Phil: Given the history of Jackson-Wink fighters against strength or boxing disparities, I expect Holm to be heavily on her bike in this fight. I don’t know whether Cyborg gets annoyed with that, or is content with fighting a tactical decision. How much does she feel like she needs to make a statement, and how much does she just want to win? In general, Holm has been freakishly tough in the Octagon, but has also been consistently vulnerable to right hands. I am also unconvinced that her ground game can survive long stretches on the mat, should Cyborg try to ground her. Cris Cyborg by TKO, round 4