Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight finishers Anthony Pettis and Michael Chiesa will duel this Saturday (July 7, 2018) at UFC 226 inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
I wrote and published an article on this exact match up three months ago ahead of UFC 223. However, just days before the event, the infamous Conor McGregor bus attack opened a cut on Chiesa’s face (watch raw video), pushing the fight back to this weekend. You can bet a good deal of this article was salvaged from the wasted 223 version: It’s the same exact match up with few if any changes from the first! At any rate, it’s still an excellent Lightweight contest. Chiesa is still in the title mix, but he needs to bounce back from an ugly loss to Kevin Lee. On the other hand, Pettis has been on a skid for a couple years now and desperately needs a strong performance to inspire confidence in a second title run.
Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each man:
Michael Chiesa
Record: 14-3
Key Wins: Beneil Dariush (UFC on FOX 19), Al Iaquinta (TUF 15 Finale), Franciso Trinaldo (UFC 173), Jim Miller (UFC Fight Night 80)
Key Losses: Kevin Lee (UFC Fight Night 112), Jorge Masvidal (UFC on FOX 8), Joe Lauzon (UFC Fight Night 50)
Keys to Victory: Chiesa is an excellent example that the simple combination of size and grappling remains one of the most dangerous in the sport. Chiesa takes back and snatches necks, overpowering foes on the mat with a dangerous mix of strength and technique.
Even in fights where things are not looking good for “Maverick,” he’s one takedown away from a finish.
Recently, Pettis’ biggest struggle has come opposite foes who pressure him, both on the feet and with takedowns. Chiesa can put power into his punches, but he’s far from a refined kickboxer. Luckily, he doesn’t have to be, as Chiesa can use those power punches to push into close range and level change into takedowns. Historically, Pettis is not all that difficult to trap along the fence. If Chiesa can get him in that position, his size and clinch takedowns should result in top position or a grinding wrestling match at the very least.
In such a fight, Chiesa should have a big advantage. So long as Chiesa forces the issue and does not accept a kickboxing match, it’s up to Pettis to really force something to happen.
Anthony Pettis
Record: 20-7
Key Wins: Charles Oliveira (UFC on FOX 21), Benson Henderson (UFC 164, WEC 53), Gilbert Melendez (UFC 181), Donald Cerrone (UFC on FOX 6)
Key Losses: Rafael dos Anjos (UFC 185), Eddie Alvarez (UFC Fight Night 81), Edson Barboza (UFC 197), Max Holloway (UFC 206), Dustin Poirier (UFC Fight Night 120)
Keys to Victory: Make no mistake, Pettis may be on something of a skid, but he’s far from a shot fighter. “Showtime” is still a violent kickboxer with tricky Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and he certainly had his moments opposite Dustin Poirier.
As with most of Pettis’ recent fights, his main key to victory here is to circle laterally and avoid getting put on the fence. Planting his feet and looking for the counter too often or backing himself straight into the fence is not an option, as it will place him directly in the type of fight that he’s struggled.
In the open, Pettis is a far better and more dangerous kickboxer.
If there is a silver lining for Pettis, it’s that he’s one of the best in the world at spinning out of back control. It’s some combination of his body type and skill, but Pettis is genuinely amazing at escaping Chiesa’s most dangerous position. That’s not a long-term answer to winning the fight, but it could get Pettis out of a sticky situation or two.
Bottom Line: One man will leave the cage as a Top 10-ranked Lightweight.
Chiesa is in an odd position. He has some strong wins on his record, but he’s also been finished in each of his losses and didn’t look all that great opposite Lee. If he goes out and dominates Pettis, it definitely confirms that Chiesa is worthy of his ranking.
If not, he’ll dip quite a bit.
The stakes are remarkably higher for Pettis, who is in desperate need of a relevant win. Jim Miller is a good fighter, but it’s not 2011 anymore. And while Charles Oliveira is a better victory, the Brazilian is wildly inconsistent himself. Those are Pettis’ sole victories since 2014, meaning there isn’t much aside from name value keeping him in the rankings.
It’s a very clear case where victory shows that Pettis still has something left to offer top-tier 155-pound competition, but defeat signals the end of Pettis’ time as a contender.
At UFC 226, Michael Chiesa meets Anthony Pettis in a must-win fight for each man. Which fighter will earn the victory?