Get the scoop on the main card action from the TUF 28 Finale, featuring a bantamweight scrap between the always exciting Pedro Munhoz and Bryan Caraway.
The TUF 28 finals are a mixed bag. The women’s featherweight final offers some promise for the future, but the heavyweights look to be more on par with winners like Colton Smith or Eddie Gordon. If you’re asking who they are, I’m proving my point perfectly. Regardless, the rest of the fights on the main card are also a mixed bag. The best fight on the main card – outside of the main event, of course – is the bantamweight scrap between Pedro Munhoz and Bryan Caraway. Munhoz is always fun and Caraway tends to fight above his abilities.
Like I said on the prelims preview article for this card, I’d have the other preliminary contests the UFC had yet to announce on this preview. You can find them on the bottom of this article.
The main card begins on FS1 at 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT on Friday.
Pannie Kianzad (10-3) vs. Macy Chiasson (2-0), Women’s Featherweight
Kianzad was one of the brighter prospects in women’s MMA at one point. A three-fight skid – while missing weight at bantamweight several times – put the brakes on her hype. Primarily a striker with good hand speed, Kianzad isn’t a power striker. However, she’s very difficult to stop once she gets into a rhythm and is a good scrambler. Where she gets in over her head is with physical wrestlers.
Chiasson isn’t a wrestler, but she is a true featherweight and has displayed a knack for knowing how to use her size to her advantage. She top heavy when she gets her opponent to the ground with solid GnP and brutalized Leah Letson in the clinch with a barrage of knees against the cage. Chiasson’s experience shows itself as she still tends to telegraph her strikes, but she’s improving in leaps and bounds.
Kianzad is the easy pick at first glance given her experience, but Chiasson’s growth in a short period of time paired with the size advantage she’ll have over Kianzad makes it hard to count her out. Regardless, Kianzad looks like she has learned some hard lessons from her recent losing streak and looks like the best version that we’ve ever seen of her. She wins some scrambles and outpoints her bigger and stronger opponent, but just barely. Kianzad via decision
Justin Frazier (10-2) vs. Juan Espino (8-1), Heavyweight
At first glance, Frazier brings memories of Tank Abbott to mind based on his frame. He doesn’t have the punching power of the early UFC star by any means, though his cardio is certainly reminiscent. For those of you unaware, that’s not a good thing. Just because Frazier’s prodigious belly doesn’t exactly inspire much confidence, it doesn’t mean he doesn’t know how to use his girth. The big man presses his opponents against the fence while wearing them down with short punches and knees or maintaining top position on the ground with a lay-and-prey offense. Yep… super exciting.
Espino looks far more what you’d expect a modern heavyweight to look like. He’s a cut 6’4” with good footwork and an 82” reach. So… what’s the issue? He’s 38, leaving his upside severely limited. Nonetheless, Espino has been continually improving, showing better distance management and power. His bread and butter is still his submission game, though most heavyweights who find success with that on the regional scene tend to see their submission victories dry up when they make it to the big leagues.
At first glance, almost everyone will be picking Espino. He’s bigger – not in the belly – longer, and is cleaner technically. However, Frazier has experience on his side, having faced better competition. Plus, Frazier can surprise with his burst. I’ve also seen some point out Espino’s loss in nine seconds to Vitaly Minakov, but that was over seven years ago. Much has changed in that time. I’m going with the Spaniard as he’s a terrible stylistic matchup for the stout Frazier. Espino via decision
Pedro Munhoz (16-3) vs. Bryan Caraway (21-8), Bantamweight
This is a make-or-break contest for Caraway. Long a lightning rod in the MMA community for a myriad of reasons, Caraway has fought very infrequently, this being the first time he has had multiple fights in a calendar year since 2014. He didn’t look quite right against Cody Stamann earlier this year, though it has been well documented that he’s been dealing with personal issues, from his dad’s mental health to the suicide of his head coach, Robert Follis. He claims to have those issues under control and is ready to resume his career.
If Caraway is right, he is one of the better grapplers in the division. He isn’t a physically overwhelming wrestler, nor is he thought to be a technical guru along the likes of Demian Maia, though no one will knock Caraway as a technician. Despite all that, he is savvy as they come, using small tricks of the trade and timing to manipulate his opponent into a bad position. Nobody fears Caraway’s striking, but he’s capable of scoring points with short combinations and low kicks.
Munhoz is a far more dangerous striker, but he’s also lacking on the defensive front, in large part due to his miniscule 64” reach. Nonetheless, Munhoz almost always throws in combination and has enough pop in his punches that opponents respect his power. Despite his lack of defense, Munhoz has never been finished, displaying an incredible amount of durability. Though his striking is usually on display more, his BJJ remains his best weapon, provided he can get his opponent to the ground. His guillotine in particular is quite lethal. Now if he can just get his wrestling to work consistently….
Even if Caraway has righted his mental ship, he’s also 34-years old at this point. Does he still have the physical skills to hang? Even if he does, Munhoz is a difficult stylistic matchup for him as it’s unlikely he’ll be able to outwit Munhoz on the ground. Caraway has proven doubters wrong before, so he shouldn’t be completely counted out. Regardless, I feel confident in picking Munhoz to get the job done. Munhoz via decision
Darren Stewart (9-3, 1 NC) vs. Edman Shahbazyan (7-0), Middleweight
At 21, Shahbazyan has a long way to go before he’s fully developed. Earning his spot on the roster after a 40 second dismantling of Antonio Jones on the Contender Series, no one is denying the kid’s physical talents. What is questionable has been his level of competition, only two of his opponents having more than five fights under their belt when Shahbazyan faced them. Nonetheless, the youngster hits like a truck and has a diverse background in a number of martial arts competitions, from karate to grappling tournaments.
Stewart entered the UFC as reckless as Shahbazyan, looking to bowl over his competition by physically overwhelming them. When that wasn’t working for him, Stewart began to start focusing on his defense, namely his takedown defense. Despite his boxing improvement in the pocket, he’s still most comfortable in the clinch. The most important thing Stewart has learned to do since making his debut: pace himself as he can now make it out of the first round without depleting his energy resources.
It’s hard to look at Shahbazyan and not see so many of the characteristics that defined Stewart in his early UFC contests. Stewart learned and made the proper adjustments and has now won his last two contests after coming up empty in his first four appearances. Some might say I’m picking against Shahbazyan for his relationship with controversial trainer Edmond Tarverdyan, but it has less to do with that and more to do with the kid being too green at this point. Stewart endures an early storm before capitalizing on a tired Shahbazyan. Stewart via TKO of RD3
Ji Yeon Kim (8-1-2) vs. Antonina Shevchenko (6-0), Women’s Flyweight
Don’t let the low number of fights fool you; Valentina’s older sister is the more experienced combatant here. Shevchenko has spent the last 15 years competing in MMA, kickboxing, and Muay Thai with a high level of success, including multiple championships. One thing her record isn’t littered with is KO’s, though that shouldn’t be a surprise as women’s fighting tends to be short on finishes in general. Where Shevchenko shines is in her accuracy from a distance and her knees in the clinch. There are questions about her ground game, but the few glimpses that have been revealed indicate she should be able to hold her own.
Given Kim is unlikely to test Shevchenko’s ground game, we probably don’t need to worry about that, somewhat ironic given the success Kim had as a grappler on the regional scene. Nonetheless, Kim’s aggression on the feet should create a memorable contest as Korean has no hesitation to let her fists fly. Kim also enjoys working from the clinch, though it’s unlikely she’s going to get the better of Shevchenko from there.
Kim is a lot of fun to watch, but her fight IQ has been highly questionable in her UFC run. Had the judges seen things just a bit differently, she could just as easily be 0-3 as opposed to 2-1. The one area she unquestionably holds the advantage is the ground, an area she has shown no inkling to take the fight to, even against a striker like Justine Kish. There’s no reason for me to expect her to do so here. While it should be fun, expect Shevchenko’s technique and accuracy to result in a finish as Kim is too hittable to go the distance this time. Shevchenko via TKO of RD3
The following contests are on the prelims, however, they were not announced at the time the preliminary preview was released.
Maurice Greene (5-2) vs. Michel Batista (4-0), Heavyweight
Greene had many believing he was the most talented big man on the show. However, he also showed that he’s a hell of a head case, struggling to get his alcohol consumption under control. A former kickboxer, Greene knows how to use his 6’7” frame and 82” reach on the offensive end, but struggles to prevent opponents from getting inside his reach and securing takedowns.
That’s good news for Batista, an Olympic wrestler representing Cuba at the 2008 games. Though not quite as big as Greene, Batista is an imposing figure himself at 6’3” with an 81” reach. His striking game is still a long way away from being a finished product, but he’s been able to make up for that deficiency with his elite wrestling.
If Greene’s head is in a good place, his youth and striking make him the favorite as Batista can be too passive for his own good. However, Greene has provided zero reasons for me to trust him. A highlight reel KO from the American won’t surprise me a bit, but Batista grinding out an ugly decision as he breaks Greene down over the course of the contest seems more likely. Batista via decision
Leah Letson (4-1) vs. Julija Stoliarenko (4-2-1), Women’s Featherweight
It’s hard to believe Dana White didn’t take a liking towards Letson as she plods forward eating all sorts of punishment in order to get in her offense. It did end up costing her as she couldn’t take Chiasson’s offense in the clinch, but she did take a lot of damage from Bea Malecki in her quarterfinal victory. Her determination will pick her up some wins she wouldn’t otherwise take as she continues to throw even when she has nothing left.
Stoliarenko possessed the best grappling credentials of the women on the show, securing a sweet armbar from the mount in her lone win on the show. Her wrestling has a way to go to catch up to her grappling, though she can score takedowns with her sheer determination. There isn’t much to her striking as she often uses it to set up her takedown attempts.
Stoliarenko will have a hard time getting her takedowns against the larger Letson. While Stoliarenko does have a number of fights at featherweight under her belt, she has also fought several times at bantamweight. Letson won’t have to fear her striking either. Letson keeps the pressure on Stoliarenko the whole time a secures a late stoppage, barring she doesn’t get caught in Stoliarenko’s guard. Letson via TKO of RD3