UFC Welterweight bout: B.J. Penn vs. Jon Fitch
Odds: (+160 Penn /-200 Fitch )
Betting Pick: Penn
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In the main event, former Lightweight and Welterweight champion looks to make it two in a row and possibly get another Welterweight title run going. Standing in his way, though, is clear-cut #1 contender Jon Fitch. B.J. has phenomenal boxing and some of the best jiu-jitsu in the sport, but Fitch is a big guy who cuts a lot of weight to get to 170 and has seriously dominant wrestling, so if B.J. wants to show that he can rebound from back to back losses to Frankie Edgar he is going to need to perform up to his “Prodigy” nickname.
B.J. Penn has his eyes set on a second Welterweight title reign after two thorough defeats at the hand of Lightweight champion Frankie Edgar. Penn’s natural abilities are the stuff of legend, with his freakish displays of athleticism having become a youtube sensation and his natural inclination for jiu-jitsu being a matter of record. Penn’s jiu-jitsu is spectacular from every position, and he is especially effective at getting control of the back and locking in chokes. He is also an extremely proficient technical boxer with a lot of punching power, even at 170, and some of the best takedown defense the sport has ever seen. The big question mark is and always has been his motivation and conditioning, but he seems truly intent at another serious Welterweight run, so expect him to show up ready and able to fight.
His opponent, Jon Fitch, is the clear #2 Welterweight in the world. Some fans chafe at Fitch’s style, which can be seen as boring, but no one would ever call it ineffective. Fitch has solid boxing, but isn’t a knockout puncher. Instead, he relies on dirty boxing, clinch work, trip takedowns and tosses from the clinch, and dominant positional control and ground and pound. Not only is Fitch excellent at imposing his will on opponents, he is extremely good at frustrating and stifling their offense. He will enter the ring with a pretty serious size advantage, which could be a huge factor considering how effective he already is at controlling and wearing guys down in the clinch.
This is a really interesting style matchup. Penn is much quicker and has much better boxing, but Fitch is bigger, stronger, and a dominant wrestler. Penn’s takedown defense is nearly impossible to crack, but Fitch’s size and strength advantages are going to wear on him in the close fighting, and I’m sure Fitch will find a way to drag him down at least a few times. Penn is extremely difficult to finish, and Fitch is not known as a finisher, so this fight will probably go the distance. The question is whether or not Penn will be able to do enough damage in the striking in between Fitch’s clinches and takedown attempts, and whether or not Fitch has the submission defense necessary to hold Penn off on the ground if and when he makes it to top position. At around +160, I think Penn is a very attractive underdog pick. This fight seems destined to go the distance, and Fitch is not going to outbox Penn. Like I said, Penn will get taken down at least once or twice, but his superior boxing and quickness should allow him to score points on the feet and Fitch is going to have to be defensive even from top position on the ground. I think BJ should be able to threaten on the ground and score points on the feet well enough to earn a unanimous decision win.
Prediction: BJ “The Prodigy” Penn via unanimous decision.
- I really like Penn to pull off the upset. Bet on Bj @ +160 for the Win.
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