This Saturday (April 20, 2019), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) travels to Yubileyny Sports Palace in Saint Petersburg, Russia, for UFC Fight Night 149. Despite it being just the promotion’s second trip to Russia, UFC is once again giving Russian fans a raw deal with a mediocre card. At the very least, it may still prove to be an exciting night of combat even if the name value is missing. Either way, let’s analyze some main card fights!
Remember: Later in the week, MMAmania.com’s Jesse Holland will preview and predict the main- and co-main events. For now, let’s take a look at these other main card bouts.
Heavyweight: Sergei Pavolvich vs. Marcelo Golm
Best Win for Pavolvich? Mikhail Mokhnatkin For Golm? Christian Colombo
Current Streak: A loss for Pavolvich and two for Golm
X-Factor: Heavyweight power
How these two match up: First fight I have to cover and neither man has a Wikipedia page — UFC clearly wants me to work for this one.
Pavolvich built an undefeated career by manhandling fellow tough Russians in the Fight Nights Global promotion. There was some real hype behind Pavolvich ahead of his debut. UFC clearly believed in the Greco-Roman wrestler as well, matching him up with Alistair Overeem in his very first trip to the Octagon.
The veteran proved too much for Pavolvich, but this is a more fair match up.
Golm is a strong, tough Heavyweight with no particularly deep skill set. Physicality and talent were enough to earn Golm a successful debut, but he struggled with his opponents’ wrestling in his next two fights.
This is a weak card, so I’m especially motivated to avoid wasting anyone’s time with superfluous analysis. Golm has struggled with two straight wrestlers, and he’s facing another hard-nosed grinder here. Smart money says history repeats itself, even if there is always the chance that Heavyweight power levels the play field (and Pavolvich).
Prediction: Pavolvich via decision
Light Heavyweight: Ivan Shtyrkov vs. Devin Clark
Best Win for Shtyrkov? Thiago Silva For Clark? Jake Collier
Current Streak: 16 (!) regional wins for Shtyrkov ahead of his debut, a loss for Clark
X-Factor: the highly questionable gas tanks of each man
How these two match up: Low-level Light Heavyweight clash, here we come!
Ivan Shtyrkov is known as the “Ural Hulk” and has extra traps atop his trapezius muscles and a six pack belly that juts forward at a weird angle. All the same, I shouldn’t raise my nose at an undefeated Light Heavyweight prospect, especially one who’s actually beaten a solid, if random, assortment of veterans. Shtyrkov is a bit quicker than one would expect, but otherwise his game is all about power, either in the form of punching combinations or muscly takedowns.
Clark is an athletic prospect himself, but his technical game doesn’t appear to be developing all that well. Clark can wrestle well enough and has a solid top game, but the rest of his game still appears to be a mess held together by his physical tools.
This one ends quickly or gets ugly fast.
It’s certainly feasible that Clark grinds his way past Shtyrkov. He’s better conditioned, has the superior wrestling credentials, and has fought better opponents. However, there’s going to be a solid few minutes where Shtyrkov is too strong to plant on the mat, and I don’t know that Clark has the skills necessary to survive the storm.
Prediction: Shtyrkov via knockout
Women’s Flyweight: Roxanne Modafferi vs. Antonina Shevchenko
Best Win for Modafferi? Barb Honchak For Shevchenko? Ji Yeon Kim
Current Streak: a loss for Modafferi, two UFC wins for Shevchenko
X-Factor: Shevchenko’s takedown defense
How these two match up: Hilariously, it’s probably the most divisionally relevant fight on the entire card!
Modafferi’s improvements deserve a lot of admiration. The longtime pioneer relied on her submission game for the better part of 10 years to establish herself as a top fighter, but the women’s mixed martial arts (MMA) game changed as the sport grew in popularity. Unlike so many others, Modafferi grew with it, developing her physical strength, offensive wrestling, and kickboxing to stay relevant.
Sister to the current Flyweight queen, Shevchenko would otherwise probably be a title challenger by now. Though her appearance and body type is quite different from her sister, “Panther’s” strategy of meticulously controlling range with long distance strikes, counter punches, and clinch work does mirror “Bullet” Shevchenko.
Modafferi needs at least one takedown to win this fight, but it’s really hard to see that happening. Shevchenko is much bigger, much more physical, and has the style to keep Modafferi way out of range. Worse still, Modafferi tends to prefer takedowns from the clinch, which would only lead her directly into Shevchenko’s strongest area.
It’s just a real bad style match up for “The Happy Warrior,” who is likely to give her all in a losing performance.
Prediction: Shevchenko via decision
Middleweight: Krzysztof Jotko vs. Alen Amedovski
Best Win for Jotko? Thales Leites For Amedovski? Ibrahim Mane
Current Streak: three tough losses for Jotko, eight regional wins for the debuting fighter
X-Factor: the massive gap in experience
How these two match up: This is a bounce back fight for Jotko, though Amedovski will be looking to foil it.
Jotko is much better than his recent record implies — a split-decision loss and crazy come-from-behind knockout can really ruin a win streak. The Polish athlete is not spectacularly explosive, but he’s quite consistent and has proven technical in all areas. Amedovski, meanwhile, has proven the power of his hands twice in Bellator with first-round knockout victories. A Greek athlete training out of Italy, Amedovski has a big opportunity on his hands.
It is worrying that Jotko was finished by strikes in his last two fights. The Uriah Hall finish was typical Uriah Hall madness, as a single punch from Hall ended a fight that Jotko was dominating. Brad Tavares, however, is not known as much of a knockout puncher, but he still picked apart and finished Jotko within two rounds.
Amedovski can crack, so maybe avoid putting any cash on this one.
I still have to side with the experience and craft of Jotko. Jotko can win this fight anywhere, but given his recent losses, it would not surprise me in the least to see Jotko seek a boring — but safe — wrestling match and come out of those exchanges the victor.
Prediction: Jotko via decision
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC Fight Night 149 results on fight night, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you’ve got riding on the sportsbook.
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