Bellator Birmingham: “Primus vs. Wilde” airs tomorrow (Sat., May 4, 2019) from Resorts World Arena in Birmingham, England on Channel 5 locally and the Bellator app at 5 PM ET in the U.S. The former Lightweight champion returns to action in the main event against a local prospect for Bellator’s European series inaugurated by “Pitbull vs. Scope” in February.
Let’s break it down:
155 lbs.: Brent Primus (8-1) vs. Tim Wilde (12-3)
Ahead of his rematch with Michael Chandler, Brent Primus was the cock of the walk, vowing to prove he was “no fluke” by beating Chandler a second time. Regrettably for him (but not for Chandler) it didn’t work out that way. Having lost both his title and his undefeated record at the same time, Primus has a brand new challenge ahead of him. He no longer has to prove that beating Chandler the first time was a “fluke,” he has to prove that being a top ranked Lightweight in the division as a WHOLE is no fluke. Another loss wouldn’t just snap his streak or cost him his crown, it would cost him the respect of every other competitor.
“The Experiment” Tim Wilde will have absolutely none of this on his mind. As a co-host of mine likes to say when breaking down fights “he’s playing with house money.” Wilde will have the crowd in Birmingham fully behind him as the local boy from Wolverhampton, and he brings a three fight win streak with him including a spinning hook kick knockout so wild (pun intended) that you really need to see it to believe it — take a look.
At 5’11” he’s a great match-up size wise with Primus at 5’10”, so he’s not going to be intimidated if they fight their way into a phone booth. Primus was a finisher earlier in his career, but of late three of his last four (win or loss) have gone to decision. Wilde on the other hand finishes half of his wins (six of 12) by strikes, but when you live by the sword you sometimes die by it as well. Two of the three times Wilde has been finished was by knockout, and the other was by triangle choke.
Therein lies the advantage that tips the scales ever so slightly to Brent Primus. He’s a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, 50% of his wins come by way of submission, and “The Experiment” will need to not be experimental if the fight goes to the ground. If he’s not spent the last few months since the fight was announced raising his BJJ game to a better than adequate level, he could be caught quicker on the canvas than by any single knockout punch — and Primus isn’t known for his striking. If you play the numbers and the percentages the only sensible strategy for Primus is to take Wilde down over and over until there’s an opening. Wilde’s only hope is to be a wild man.
Final prediction: Brent Primus wins by rear naked choke in round two
155 lbs.: Pedro Carvalho (9-3) vs. Derek Campos (19-8)
Bellator made the decision to put Lightweights front and center in Birmingham. Derek Campos is coming in on a two fight skid although he lost a split decision in his last fight. He’s one of the 155 lbs. divisional staples of the promotion, always seeming to be a fight or two away from contention only to take a loss at the most inopportune times. With six knockouts, five submissions and eight decisions in his 19 wins he’s got enough versatility to frustrate an opponent anywhere the fight goes.
The most likely place for Pedro Carvalho to take the fight if he has the chance would be the canvas. Five of his nine wins come by submission and only one comes via TKO, and that hasn’t happened since 2014. The 5’9” fighter used to compete at Featherweight but seems healthier and stronger at 155, which coincides with the fact he’s on a four fight winning streak dating back to 2017. Given Campos is your classic “Jekyll and Hyde” fighter he has to believe now is his time to seize the moment.
The two men are well matched in height as Campos also stands 5’9”, and even if he gave up length at 68” (Carvalho’s reach is undisclosed) it wouldn’t be an impossibility for Campos to overcome, particularly when he cuts angles to close the distance and lands heavy blows that do major damage. The sensible thing for Carvalho to do would be fight a tactical and elusive fight at range, always staying just out of Campos’ reach until he shoots for a takedown. I don’t expect him to “play it smart” and have a boring fight to secure a win. He’ll take risks with Campos but in my estimation they will pay dividends.
Final prediction: Pedro Carvalho wins via rear naked choke in round two
185 lbs.: Fabian Edwards (6-0) vs. Falco Neto Lopes (11-9)
Edwards is coming off a solid performance at Bellator Newcastle against long time fighter Lee Chadwick. Edwards has since ruffled some feathers by calling out other local prospects who feel he hasn’t paid enough dues, but squeaky wheels tend to get the grease and so we have Edwards in the spotlight again on a Bellator main card. Given his opponent Lopes hasn’t put two wins in a row together since 2014, it is both entirely predictable and expected that he will find a way to finish Lopes and continue to call out divisional rivals.
Final prediction: Fabian Edwards wins by rear naked choke in round one
170 lbs.: Raymond Daniels (0-1) vs. Wilker Barros (0-0)
It would be easy to misunderstand why this fight is on the main card until you realize that Raymond Daniels is Bellator Kickboxing’s Welterweight champion. Although that has yet to successfully translate over to mixed martial arts, they have given him a fighter with no professional experience to basically set up his best chance of winning. While Barros is also an experienced kickboxer, I don’t expect Daniels is making the trip all the way from California to be fed to the competition. His last MMA bout was in Strikeforce over a decade ago and I don’t think you can say he’s the same fighter he was back then in ANY discipline.
Final prediction: Raymond Daniels wins a unanimous decision
That’s a wrap!
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