Main Card:
UFC Welterweight Championship
Georges St. Pierre (19-2-0) vs. Dan Hardy ( 23-6-0 )
The odds show Georges St Pierre as a huge favorite. Imo, this is a closer fight than most think. Hardy has excellent boxing, great takedown defense, and from what I’ve seen pretty good wrestling.
However, GSP’s wrestling is top notch, probably is faster and overall more technical. He might be the stronger fighter here.
They both carry KO power, but the difference could be the speed and wrestling of GSP.
I think GSP will win, but not worth a bet with GSP favored at -800. In fact its almost worth the bet for Hardy at +500. If you must bet on UFC 111 and want to bet with GSP over Dan Hardy, do it at Bodog.
Interim UFC Heavyweight Championship
Frank Mir (13-40) vs. Shane Carwin (11-0-0)
Mir will probably own on the ground, and the standup probably is a tilt towards Carwin.
Frank Mir is a slight favorite, definitely warranted. If you remember in the Gonzaga, Carwin fight, Gonzaga, before being KOd really put Carwin in some serious danger. Mir with his improved boxing could equally do the same. However, Mir is not a takedown artist in the cage, couple that with Carwin’s excellent wrestling ability and this fight tells me that its going to be a standup war. Mir must have a serious beard to have not been knocked out by Lesnar, so I will put the odds of him being knocked out by Carwin, slightly lower than I would normallly, but Carwin is a big powerful fighter – no doubt.
I favor the favorite (see what I did there?) in this close match. Frank Mir. +130 for Carwin, -160 for Mir at Sportsbook.com for UFC 111.
Jon Fitch (21-3-0) vs. Thiago Alves (16-6-0)
Oh this is going to be good. With the much improved overall game of Thiago Alves, I think Fitch’s grinding style could go down. Thiago has power, strength, speed. Fitch has cardio, wrestling, ridiculous top control.
Ricardo Almeida (11-3-0) vs. Matt Brown (11-7-0)
Will Almeida be able to deal with Matt Brown’s striking? I think so. I like Almeida to continue his win streak and win via submission.
Almeida is a favorite at Sportsbook.com I like him to win this fight at UFC 111.
Jake Ellenberger (22-5-0) vs. Ben Saunders (8-1-2)
I like betting with Ellenberger because he never quits. Saunders on the other hand is so hit or miss. However, Saunders reach and height here could be a massive advantage. Its also a problem, because Ellenberger is great at takedowns.
I’m going with Ben Saunders to win at UFC 111.
Jim Miller (16-2-0) vs. Mark Bocek (8-2-0)
Better striking, better overall MMA game, Papa Jim’s.
I think Jim Miller wins this one on striking. Both are jiu jitsu aces, but Jim Miller’s speed and striking are better than Bocek. Not sure if Bocek is slightly better at the ground game or not. Miller rarely goes there and concentrates on his boxing.
I don’t know what the odds are, but I like Jim Miller to win at UFC 111.
Nate Diaz (11-5-0) vs. Rory Markham (16-5-0)
I’m always taking a Diaz brother. Go Nate!
Rousimar Palhares (10-2-0) vs. Tomasz Drwal (17-2-1)
Palhares is favored, but I like Tomasz Drwal. Palhares should have a TREMENDOUS ground advantage. However, his standup is weak, where Drwal’s is not.
Drwal is an underdog at Sportsbook.com and I like him to win at UFC 111.
Kurt Pellegrino (14-4-0) vs. Fabricio Camoes (10-4-1)
I don’t know of Camoes, but Pellegrino has really upped his game. I like Pellegrino in the dark here.
Matt Riddle (3-1-0) vs. Greg Soto (7-0-0)
No opinion.