Phil and David breakdown everything you need to know about Moicano vs. Jung for UFC in Greenville, South Carolina.
Renato Moicano vs. Chan Sung Jung headlines UFC Greenville this June 22, 2019 at the Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina.
One sentence summary
Phil: A Noite dos Mortos-Vivos
David: Train to Extrusion
Stats
Record: Renato Moicano 13-2-1 Draw | Chan Sung Jung 14-5
Odds: Renato Moicano -185 | Chan Sung Jung +170
History / Introduction to the fighters
Phil: Renato Moicano came into the UFC as an unusually thoughtful and multidimensional prospect. I remember being very impressed with his submission win over the perennially underrated Tom Niinimaki, and Moicano has never really stopped impressing me since. He’s never struck me as the most physically overwhelming fighter, but he was able to carefully neutralize powerhouses like Stephens and Tukhugov, and even his losses to elite talents have been competitive. He’s a pleasure to watch.
David: Moicano seemed like a prospect on the rise. He came in with impressive victories. He fought impressively in a tough-fought decision. Then he lost impressively in a tough-fought defeat. I think what has me confused is the Aldo fight. With Aldo on the decline, and Moicano on the ostensible rise, I figured one of two things would happen: a) he’d win or b) he’d lose without having anything to be ashamed of. Instead he just kind of got picked apart, blitzed, and finished off. Granted, Aldo’s Aldo. But still, it was a little disappointing for a fighter with a lot of potential. This fight will reveal a lot more. Because Jung is no Aldo.
Phil: It’s a marker of how exciting the Korean Zombie is that he’s managed to build such a cult following with relatively few fights. It’s not just the injury layoffs and the military service: he didn’t even have that many UFC fights before the hiatus. His total UFC career is just 8 fights, which is about a year and a half of a Cowboy Cerrone schedule, give or take. The combination of a badass nickname, some iconic brawls (including one where the fun of the fight obscured the fact that it was a bit of a robbery, against Leonard Garcia) and some picturesque finishes has left Zombie embedded in fight fans’ hearts in a way which is pretty rare nowadays.
David: Jung is like what would happen to a one-hit wonder if that never really faded away. He’s no Chocolate Rain. And his big comeback was bittersweet. Good fight. Good performance. And knocked out just seconds before the judges could make their inept decisions. It’s hard to know what to expect. Jung is still relatively young. Despite the wars he’s been in, he hasn’t been in many of them. It helps that he realized very quickly what the consequences were of his style when he got knocked out by Roop. His biology has never left him, but he’s figured out how to channel his wild-swinging DNA rather than try to reprogram it.
What’s at stake?
Phil: Both are coming off stoppage losses, which would normally put you fairly far back in a division as stacked as featherweight. However, there aren’t all that many fighters on a major streak in the division at the moment. A win likely sets someone up with an opponent like Yair, Ortega, or Zabit.
David: Not too much. A loss would just lower the level of competition for them, and both are a step above the average featherweight tier.
Where do they want it?
Phil: Moicano has become one of the craftier range strikers around. His usage of the jab is some of the best around: he’s debatably even better than Aldo at using it to poke and punish, particularly as he can pivot and fire as he throws, while cracking opponents who try to pivot or jab with him with a long leg kick. Ever since he’s come to the UFC he’s been a quality grappler, with a good body lock takedown game and a knack for back takes and RNCs. He’s a technical and cerebral fighter, but like many of his countrymen, Moicano can be lured into a brawl if pressed. This has its advantages and disadvantages: on the one hand, Jung won’t be able to just force pressure on him quite as freely as he could on Rodriguez, but on the other hand Moicano may be swinging back into a hard counter.
David: What’s surprised me in Moicano’s career thus far is his durability. He really went all out against Jeremy Stephens and Brian Ortega. Part of Moicano’s style is shifting between extremes. On the one hand, you have the the savvy angular brawler. On the other, the distance-managing piercer. So I’m not really sure. He doesn’t quite know when to shift styles, but the fact that he has access to different fight gears is still a net positive. Moicano has good body movement. His strikes are rarely telegraphed, but he’s never inert either. He’s not simply a pressure fighter with dynamic skills. He’s simply dynamic all around. With the ability to switch stances, and attack the legs, there are occasions where he becomes a counter-striker, selecting an array of check left hooks, and inside femur-smoothers to optimize his arsenal.
Phil: The evolution of Korean Zombie from a face-forward, chin-first brawler into a defined aggressive counterpuncher has been both fun and rewarding to watch. The first hints of what we’d see were in that fight with Mark Hominick, where he slipped a Hominick shot and knocked the Canadian title challenger out with one punch. Since then he’s doubled down on the style, coming in on a trigger with barrages of hooks. If Moicano retains some characteristically Brazilian traits, then Jung has some significantly Korean parts of his style: the shot selection (uppercuts and flying knees complementing hooks and right hands), the aggression, and the somewhat lacking defense. Jung’s footwork has improved, and he’s more likely to pick his shots from the outside, but his hands-down, chin-up approach is still one which leaves him vulnerable to power coming back his way. One thing Jung does have which a lot of Korean fighters lack is sterling takedown defense: with a snapdown and front headlock series which he was even able to best D’Arce specialist Dustin Poirier with, he’s as challenging to grapple with as Moicano is.
David: As mentioned above, Jung took a hard look in the mirror after his loss to Roop. I think he thought he’d continue capturing the magic of his epic war with Garcia. Instead he got deaded so bad, he was out before he hit the ground, and his unconscious head slammed hard against his knee as he crumpled to the canvas. That affected him. I mean, besides nearly taking a dirt nap. Now you see a bit more patience in the way he approaches each entry. His lack of defense is still there. He’s still hittable. But he’s no longer predictable. With brute force casting punches, he’s good at punching holes through opponent’s defenses. His broken rhythm goes a long way in allowing him to land from unlikely angles, and whenever a scramble erupts, he’s honestly one of the best opportunity-grapplers in the sport. He wastes zero time when setting up his submissions. He just snatches them out of thin air.
Insight from past fights
Phil: While it’s hard to credence the no-look reverse elbow KO of Jung as being anything other than “really weird”, it is notable that Jung spent long times in the Rodriguez fight being stranded at distance. His struggles with Rodriguez’ jab don’t indicate great things, seeing as Moicano is a far more adept and defensively sound jabber. However, Moicano’s losses to Ortega and Aldo showed some problems: if someone can get past that jab and initiate exchanges, Moicano’s less than stellar endurance and durability can be exposed. Cautionary tales for both fighters, basically.
David: I honestly have no clue. Both fighters have moments were their true natures either diverge, or coalesce. So the real question is: which fighter is most likely to diverge from their keys to victory? What I like about this fight is that there’s a mathematical progression here. Jung likely won’t be able to jailbreak himself out of Moicano’s outside strikes. Which means he’ll switch to slugging, which could then lure Moicano into a brawl. This is gonna be good…
X-Factors
Phil: Both men are coming off stoppage losses. Zombie in particular has had a career which has been short in fights, but long on injuries and wars. If he comes in looking faded I wouldn’t be surprised.
David: Not much. Jung has gone through the seventh hell, but he’s relatively young, and doesn’t have a lot of fight mileage.
Prognostication
Phil: The 5 rounds makes this fight particularly interesting: can Jung wear down the less physically gifted fighter? On the other hand, how does KZ’s headhunting play with Moicano’s ability to mix in attritional damage and kick away at his legs. In general I think I like Moicano, just about. Jung can still get stuck out at distance, and Moicano has an enormous technical edge there. Renato Moicano by unanimous decision.
David: For me it’s just about Moicano’s raw length and skill. If Moicano were just a rangy fighter, I’d say Jung all day. But Moicano is a rangy, slick striker who has already endured hellfire against some of the division’s absolute best. Not only is he the younger fighter (not by much, granted) with more raw potential, but he’s the younger fighter with equal experience. Renato Moicano by Decision.