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Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for Saturday’s UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar fight card.
The Bloody Elbow staff has made its predictions for UFC 240, and I hope you’ve got some spare cash on you, because we’ve unanimously picked Max Holloway over Frankie Edgar in the main event, ditto Cris Cyborg over Felicia Spencer in the co-main. The BE staff picks curse has been unusually strong this year, so a flyer on an Edgar-Spencer parlay is worth it.
Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.
Max Holloway vs. Frankie Edgar
Anton Tabuena: Even if Edgar isn’t slowing down and his insane durability would still be there, I would still pick Holloway. It just seems like a rough match up for him, and I don’t think this is going to be very competitive at all. I expect Holloway to defend takedowns and pick him apart until he gets that stoppage midway through the contest. Max Holloway by TKO.
Mookie Alexander: Holloway tends to be a slow starter but picks up steam and turns into a runaway freight train. That gives Edgar a limited window to win this fight, or else it’s just going to be increasingly desperate shots and getting smoked by Holloway’s counters and volume striking. There seems to be concern about Holloway returning rather quickly from that war with Dustin Poirier, but Edgar has been in 500 of those wars and he’s 37 years old, coming off injury right now, and he was brutally KO’d by Brian Ortega last year. If you ask me who’s the real concern here, it’s Edgar. This would’ve been intriguing a few years ago but now it feels like Holloway is just miles ahead of Edgar, and it’ll show on Saturday. Max Holloway by TKO, round 4.
Fraser Coffeen: The last time Frankie Edgar won a world title fight was when he stopped Gray Maynard in 2011. He’s 0-4 in title shots since. It’s fitting that he defeated Urijah Faber a few years back, as he has eased into that Faber/Holly Holm role – a go to fighter who can be given a title shot seemingly at random and seem like a credible challenger, but not someone who really has a shot at winning it. Max Holloway, TKO
Zane Simon: There’s an avenue for Edgar here, but it involves doing something that I don’t think he’s nearly as interested in these days as he used to be, and that’s starting fast. Like a lot of long time veterans and championship caliber fighters, Edgar and Holloway both tend to like to start out slow, feel out what their opponent is trying to do, and build their games in layers from there. For Edgar, the layered part of his game is mostly in his wrestling. He’s a good striker, but not an especially nuanced one. On Holloway’s end, he’s an incredibly deft striker, but one who tends to both get hit hard early and late by aggressive opponents. Holloway works a lot of very simple, predictable combinations, early in fights, using opponent reactions to build deeper, trickier ones later one. Before he’s got his timing 100% down, he can get clipped. And, once he has that timing down, and opponents get desperate, he can get hit by wild shots, just because he likes to walk very fine technical lines. End of the day, though, I just don’t think Edgar is a wild and aggressive enough striker these days to throw caution to the wind and try and put Holloway out early. Instead, he’ll likely let Holloway feel out the fight early, and by the time Edgar is ready to set up his trickier takedown entries, Holloway will be stifling him from range. Max Holloway by decision.
Victor Rodriguez: The problem I see here is Holloway using reach and volume to pick Edgar apart at distance. It’s a major problem that even Jose Aldo couldn’t solve over time. It’s entirely possible that Edgar uses a counter game to rush inside and punish Max to the body and immediately try to work takedowns. I mean, that would be The Answer™, wouldn’t it? No? Nobody? Fine. You guys are the worst. But no, seriously: Edgar’s got a chance, but it ain’t looking great against a sharp volume striker and a guy that defends takedowns really well. Add a wily submission game and it’s a recipe for disaster. Max Holloway by decision.
Staff picking Holloway: Ed, Nick, Phil, Mookie, Stephie, Anton, Fraser, Dayne, Zane, Shak, Victor
Staff picking Edgar:
Cris Cyborg vs. Felicia Spencer
Anton Tabuena: Cyborg is already 34 and is coming off a brutal KO loss, so there are question marks here. Spencer seems fun and all, but I’m not sure how she takes this. If Cyborg’s anywhere close to her old form though, this should stylistically be an easy fight for her. Cris Cyborg by TKO.
Mookie Alexander: Unless Spencer has improved her striking 1000x over or can clinch, wrestle, and outgrapple Cyborg, then this is a formality. Cris Cyborg by TKO, round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: Felicia Spencer rules and her win over Anderson was great, and this is a horrorshow style matchup for her. Is she going to just aggressively outwrestle Cyborg? How? This is the Tonya Evinger fight all over again unless Cyborg has fallen off a humongous physical cliff. Cris Cyborg by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: No part of Spencer’s game right now is built to beat Cyborg. She lives to clinch fight, and that has always been one of the safest, most controlling spots for Cyborg in the cage. She can’t get away with pulling guard here, like she did against Anderson. Cyborg’s only had one sub loss, in her debut. And if she just sticks to range to keep from getting mauled, Cyborg is an infinitely more technical and more powerful range puncher. Rough luck for Spencer, but then again, if she somehow wins, she’ll have entirely defied the odds to do it. Cris Cyborg via TKO, round 2.
Victor Rodriguez: Spencer’s kicking game is fun, but her striking is limited. Her takedowns are decent, but this is still Cyborg we’re talking about. She got greedy against Nunes but won’t make that mistake here and won’t get held down off her back, either. Besides, we haven’t seen Felicia’s cardio tested, either. Cris Cyborg by TKO.
Staff picking Cyborg: Ed, Nick, Phil, Mookie, Stephie, Anton, Fraser, Dayne, Zane, Shak, Victor
Staff picking Spencer:
Geoff Neal vs. Niko Price
Anton Tabuena: Wow. The quality of bouts on this pay-per-view just drops after the top two contests. Geoff Neal by Decision.
Mookie Alexander: Price is always a danger for the very fact that he can do weird shit like finish you with hammerfists from the bottom (Randy Brown) or knock you out while on the verge of being knocked out (Tim Means). But his style is so feast or famine that someone like Neal is just going to pick his spots over and over again until he gets the finish. Price’s defense is just not good enough (or really… any good) to cope with Neal’s striking. Geoff Neal by KO, round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: I guess the main question for this fight, or indeed any Niko Price fight, is “how much better than Niko Price do you actually have to be to beat him.” Of all the fighters who habitually pick up weird finishes after looking bad, he perhaps looks the… most bad? Randy Brown was handily outwrestling him and Tim Means was beating the crap out of him on the feet before he picked up odd finishes. Neal is a quality technician who doesn’t take his eyes off the road, and Price never seems to go to a decision, so Geoff Neal by TKO, round 1.
Zane Simon: This reminds me entirely too much of the Vicente Luque fight for Price. A fast, technical and confident striker who can dip into the pocket for single hard shots, and get back out of the pocket before Price can catch him in return. Neal just seems too fast for Price to catch leaping forward and swinging wild, and too steady on the counter for Price to survive over and over again with the openings he’ll give. Geoff Neal via KO, round 1.
Victor Rodriguez: Niko’s hittable, but his offensive options should fluster Geoff’s smooth and effective boxing game. I like Neal’s chances, but Price has the submission game in his back pocket and an unorthodox approach that can fluster Neal. Niko Price by submission.
Staff picking Neal: Ed, Nick, Phil, Mookie, Stephie, Anton, Fraser, Dayne, Zane, Shak
Staff picking Price: Victor
Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Arman Tsarukyan
Mookie Alexander: I think this plays out similar to the Hernandez fight, with similar results for OAM. That’s not good news for him. Arman Tsarukyan by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Just what does a close and tough decision loss to Islam Makhachev mean? Tsarukyan is young, aggressive, and a powerful wrestler and willing striker, but if his wrestling just isn’t good enough to compete with the deep waters of lightweight, he may just find himself in over his head again. On the flip side, we’ve seen OAM in the cage against another tough, strong wrestler with a willing striking game and not a lot of technical depth: Alex Hernandez. Much like the Makhachev fight for Tsarukyan, that was a back-and-forth, competitive bout for the Canadian, but also one he didn’t get the better of. The big thing for me here is that it seems like the competitive wrestling and pace were the difficulty for OAM, things that Tsarukyan can bring. I’m less sold that OAM has the kind of deep technical wrestling game that Makhachev was able to work over and over. Arman Tsarukyan by split decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Taking a flyer on this one, because I’ve run out of shits to give. OAM by decision.
Staff picking OAM: Ed, Phil, Anton, Dayne, Victor
Staff picking Tsarukyan: Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Zane, Shak
Marc-André Barriault vs. Krzysztof Jotko
Mookie Alexander: Barriault can win this on the feet but the Andrew Sanchez loss has me thinking that, while it may be Octagon jitters that caused him to perform that way, Jotko might be a tricky matchup for him. Jotko has had some issues with his chin and getting into slogs on occasion, but he’s otherwise got a consistent meat-and-potatoes game that should see him outwrestle the Canadian and control him on the mat. Krzysztof Jotko by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: If Barriault can stuff takedowns, or at least get up quickly over and over again, he has a chance to catch Jotko standing in some wild exchanges. But, Jotko is a very mobile, slick fighter, and doesn’t tend to gas (Uriah Hall fight excepted) in nearly the way Andrew Sanchez does. If Jotko is have success with his offense, it seems much more likely that he’ll find ways to control the action for all 15 minutes. Much more so than Barriault trading one-for-one punches and finding the KO. Krzysztof Jotko by decision.
Staff picking Barriault: Victor
Staff picking Jotko: Ed, Nick, Phil, Mookie, Stephie, Anton, Fraser, Dayne, Zane, Shak
Alexis Davis vs. Viviane Araujo
Zane Simon: A huge step up for Araujo, from Talita Bernardo, even down a division. However, it may also be just the right fight at just the right time. Davis is a very crafty veteran, but increasingly so, the potency of her game seems to be leaving. So that even when she’s winning fights, she’s rarely making a major impact on her opposition. If Araujo isn’t mindful of staying out of the clinch, Davis could just take her down and out-grapple her for the win. But if Davis can’t hurt or hold Araujo, it’s much more likely that Araujo delivers the kind of offense standing that leaves an impact with the judges. Vivi Araujo by decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Nothing that Davis does well is that big a threat to Araujo, and Vivi’s striking is going to be a major problem for Davis. Viviane Araujo by TKO.
Staff picking Davis: Ed
Staff picking Araujo: Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Anton, Phil, Fraser, Dayne, Zane, Shak, Victor
Hakeem Dawodu vs. Yoshinori Horie
Zane Simon: It may not be Dawodu, but someone is suffering the BE curse tonight. Horie is a fun live-by-the-sword, die-by-the-sword counterpuncher from Pancrase. He hits hard, he can be hit hard, and he likes to keep fights standing and in the pocket. However, like a lot of Japanese prospects, he seems to have trouble with pace and with phase shifting. Dawodu likely won’t offer him many looks at a wrestling game, but he puts an insane amount of strikes out there per round. He can get caught by aggressive fighters willing to go after him early, especially since he likes to use muay-thai style slips and counters in the pocket that often rely on very very good timing. But, I’m not confident Horie will press him enough to create those kinds of errors. Hakeem Dawodu by decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Dude, this fight is gonna be so dope. So, so dope. I love it, and Horie is a live one. I just think that Dawodu’s variety in striking and pivots to disengage off strike combinations will serve him well to minimize damage as he punishes Horie. Hakeem Dawodu by decision.
Staff picking Dawodu: Ed, Nick, Phil, Mookie, Stephie, Anton, Fraser, Dayne, Zane, Shak, Victor
Staff picking Horie:
Gavin Tucker vs. Seung Woo Choi
Zane Simon: Tucker is likely the craftier, more technical striker, but he really likes to work from distance and he’s just not a very tall, rangy fighter. Choi, on the other hand, is good at sitting down on long combos, and has a huge frame for the division. He’s also tough as nails, and willing to fight back for every second of 15 minutes. I’m not entirely sure that Tucker’s regional can crushing left him well suited to handle opponents who don’t just get immediately overwhelmed by his speed and power. Eventually, enough time spent at range with a much longer fighter who can take the fight deeper, and I gotta pick Seung Woo Choi by decision.
Staff picking Tucker: Ed, Nick, Phil, Mookie, Shak
Staff picking Choi: Stephie, Anton, Fraser, Dayne, Zane, Victor
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Mookie Alexander: I’m a Pantoja believer. He’s an improved striker, fast-paced fighter, dangerous grappler, and I believe he’ll be able to avoid Figueiredo’s power shots and outwork him on the ground. We could see some fun scrambles out of this one. Honestly, this is one of the best fights on the card, but it’s men’s flyweight, so naturally they shoved it way down on the prelims. Alexandre Pantoja by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: A monstrously tough fight to pick. Pantoja tends to only lose to grapplers that can take advantage of his lax wrestling willing scrambling, and lock him down to suck away his energy. That COULD be Figueiredo, but I’m not entirely convinced that Figueiredo is controlling enough. Figueiredo has a much, much lower workrate that Pantoja, but he hits with power, he’s creative, and he just seems bricked up for 125. Eventually, I think Pantoja can stay upright just enough and push a mean enough pace, that he can get the win here. But if Figueiredo starts controlling him on the ground, that could be where this fight goes entirely his way. Alexandre Pantoja by decision.
Staff picking Pantoja: Ed, Nick, Phil, Mookie, Anton, Zane, Shak
Staff picking Figueiredo: Stephie, Fraser, Dayne, Victor
Gillian Robertson vs. Sarah Frota
Zane Simon: Frota is big and powerful, likely even decently so for 125. But she’s also incredibly stiff and uncoordinated in prolonged striking exchanges, no matter how willing she is to stay in them. She did present some surprisingly competitive grappling against Livinha Souza in her debut, but giving up takedowns and getting out-grappled is also what lost her that fight. Robertson doesn’t seem as confident or powerful standing, but she’s decent wrestling with a very good attacking sub game. And she’s bigger and stronger than Souza. If Frota gives her the same chances that Livinha has, I think Robertson can stay ahead for the win. Gillian Robertson by submission, Round 2.
Staff picking Robertson: Ed, Nick, Mookie, Anton, Phil, Fraser, Zane, Shak, Victor
Staff picking Frota: Stephie, Dayne
Erik Koch vs. Kyle Stewart
Zane Simon: Koch really should be good enough technically to win this fight. He should be better than Stewart everywhere. But… maybe he won’t be? Stewart hits really hard and likes to brawl, that could be enough. I don’t think it will be, but Koch’s recent fights haven’t inspired a ton of confidence, or even been all that recent. Erik Koch via decision.
Staff picking Koch: Ed, Nick, Phil, Mookie, Stephie, Victor
Staff picking Stewart: Anton, Fraser, Dayne, Shak