UFC Welterweight bout: Dan Hardy vs. Anthony Johnson
Odds: (+150 Hardy /-180 Johnson )
Betting Pick: HARDY
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In the semi-main event, British striker Dan Hardy will look to recover from two straight disappointing losses against the returning Anthony “Rumble” Johnson, who has been out of action for over a year with a meniscus tear. Both of these guys are coming off losses, so this is an important fight for both of their careers. Despite his recent losses, Hardy is an extremely formidable striker, but Johnson is a very dangerous and athletic fighter as long as the injury hasn’t hampered him too much.
Anthony Johnson looked like he was on his way to the top early in his UFC career, but he hit the brick wall in his last fight against Josh Koscheck, where he was handled thoroughly and choked out in the second round. Even though he didn’t handle the step up in competition that well, he still has serious knockout power in his hands and legs, a ton of speed and accuracy, and a lot of physical strength and size. Still, he enters this fight surrounded by question marks. For one thing, he has had a ton of problems making weight, and it is clear that he is trying to cut an unhealthy amount. Even if he does make weight, how much will that huge cut wear on him come fight time? Also, any time a fighter is out for over a year with a knee injury, there have to be questions about how well he is recovered and how much effect the ring rust is going to have.
Dan Hardy is an extremely formidable striker, although his last two fights have not gone well at all. First he was manhandled for five rounds by Georges St. Pierre, unable to mount any offense whatsoever, and then he was shocked by an upset knockout courtesy of Carlos Condit. Hardy doesn’t have much of an offensive grappling game, but he did show against GSP that his submission defense and escapes are pretty solid. Clearly Hardy’s best work is on the feet, where he is very good technically and also has a lot of power. There is no question he will want to stand and trade with Johnson.
This is an interesting matchup. Johnson is the bigger and stronger guy, but his ground game is still raw and he is coming off a long layoff. On the feet, Johnson has the power to test Hardy’s chin and then some, but Hardy is the far more technical and complete striker. This is a close fight on paper, but I have to give the edge to Hardy. Johnson’s huge weight cut and the long layoff are probably going to have an effect on his cardio, and I think Hardy will beat him to the punch more often than not on the feet. Hardy is good enough to survive a few takedowns, and as Johnson tires out I think Hardy will assert himself more and more in the striking exchanges and eventually catch Johnson with a big shot. Hardy by T/KO.
Prediction: Dan “The Outlaw” Hardy via second round T/KO.
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