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Featherweight striker “El Pantera” meets “Lil’ Heathen” in Mexico City this Sat. (Sept. 21) for the latest installment of Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) on ESPN+. The main event sees local mixed martial arts (MMA) superstar Yair Rodriguez take on the ever-dangerous Jeremy Stephens in the former’s second consecutive main event.
Strawweight prospect Alexa Grasso joins her countryman in the co-feature, taking on former champ Carla Esparza, and “The Assassin Baby,” Brandon Moreno, returns to the Octagon after a year away to face Russian champion Askar Askarov.
Our usual main card guy is trapped in the Land of the Dead after stealing a guitar, so I’m up to bat once again. Check out our Prelims analysis here and here, plus an odds breakdown here if you’re so inclined.
155 lbs.: Yair “Pantera” Rodriguez (11-2) vs. Jeremy Stephens (28-16)
If you’re someone who gets frustrated by people not fighting smart, avert ye eyes. Rather than use his myriad physical gifts and bottomless striking toolbox to form a cohesive offensive onslaught, Rodriguez is content to haphazardly throw things at the wall until something sticks. Rather than set up his teeth-rattling power punches with his jab or properly utilize his crushing low kicks, Stephens remains brawl-happy after over a decade in the Octagon.
God, I pity their coaching staff.
The knee-jerk reaction here is to look at Stephens’ struggles with Zabit Magomedsharipov and use the latter’s superficial stylistic resemblance to Rodriguez to extrapolate. Thing is, Magomedsharipov’s wrestling essentially gave him a get-out-of-jail-free card any time Stephens started picking up momentum, and though Rodriguez is no slouch in that area, he’s not “Zabeast.” This stays on the feet, where both men “just need one.”
Stephens’ “one” seems a bit more likely to me. As said before, Rodriguez doesn’t set up spinning and jumping shenanigans, instead using his athleticism to catch people by surprise. Chan Sung Jung avoided them for 20 minutes by staying patient, which Stephens can do if so inclined. The less-dramatic pieces of “El Pantera’s” arsenal don’t seem like they pack enough oomph to slow Stephens down considering “Lil’ Heathen’s” ability to withstand power shots from Doo Ho Choi and Josh Emmett.
It’ll be a wash while Rodriguez is fresh; hell, he’ll probably make Stephens look stupid for a few minutes, dancing at range and slamming all manner of kick-based chicanery into his guard. Once the leg kicks start piling up and Rodriguez slows down, though, he won’t be able to escape those sledgehammers for long. Stephens again weathers an early storm to pound his man out.
Prediction: Stephens via third-round technical knockout
115 lbs.: Alexa Grasso (11-2) vs. Carla “Cookie Monster” Esparza (14-6)
This is a pivotal test for Grasso. In her last fight against Karolina Kowalkiewicz, she finally looked like the potential star I thought she’d be when I watched her box up Mizuki Inoue in 2015. She was sharp, aggressive, fast, and powerful, outclassing one of the division’s most seasoned strikers and making it look easy.
Esparza’s a whole different animal, though. Almost five years after her Octagon debut, she remains one of the division’s best wrestlers, and while Tatiana Suarez can take down just about anyone, the fact that Grasso gave up takedowns to Felice Herrig and Randa Markos should give “The Cookie Monster” hope.
I do apologize for constantly busting this phrase out, but this is a two-true-outcome fight. If Grasso keeps it standing, her height, reach, and overall boxing acumen outclass Esparza’s striking despite the latter’s obvious improvements in that area. On the ground, Grasso has few answers for Esparza’s elite top control.
Had this taken place before Grasso’s most recent fight, I’d take Esparza in a heartbeat. Grasso just looked too good against Kowalkiewicz for me to ignore. Like against Markos, she lands enough on the feet and scrambles out of enough bad spots to eke out a decision.
Prediction: Grasso via split decision
125 lbs.: Askar “Bullet” Askarov (10-0) vs. Brandon “Assassin Baby” Moreno (15-5)
Askarov’s name may be easier to remember, spell, and pronounce than other Russian standouts, but he’s absolutely worth your attention. He’s faced a bevy of strong talent in his young career, picking up a title in a highly well-regarded Eastern European promotion and never failing to finish an opponent.
Moreno, meanwhile, made the most of his time away from the UFC by reaching the finals of a Combat Jiu Jitsu tournament and also knocking out LFA Flyweight champ Maikel Perez, claiming the latter’s belt in the process.
In short, this fight is worth your attention.
What makes this so interesting is that their wheelhouses overlap. Though a strong wrestler, Askarov does his best work in transition, where Moreno is happy to oblige him. Any prolonged grappling exchanges between these two are going to be absolutely wild. and Moreno has enough power in his wild standup to keep things interesting despite Askarov’s technical edge on that front.
While Moreno is the likelier of the two to score a finish, Askarov’s wrestling edge and crisper boxing have me leaning his way. Moreno takes him the distance, but spends enough time on the bottom or on the wrong end of Askarov’s punches to make his Octagon return an unsuccessful one.
Prediction: Askarov via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Irene Aldana (10-5) vs. Vanessa “Miss Simpatia” Melo (10-5)
You know what’s always convenient as a fight analyst? When a fighter shoes the blueprint for beating them. Less than two months ago, Melo take on veteran Jan Finney, whom you may remember from the time Kim Winslow let Cyborg smash her face in. Finney, the taller and rangier woman, used a stiff jab and patient in-and-out movement to defuse Melo’s countering game. Though the Brazilian had some moments of success, Finney appeared to deserve the victory, but the judges thought otherwise.
You can read more on that event’s shenanigans here. It’s wild stuff.
Aldana also boasts a considerable edge in height and presumably reach, plus the boxing craft to use it the way Finney did. Though I’ll admit to some trepidation after her bizarrely close battle with Bethe Correia, it’s hard to envision her losing when Finney showed her exactly what to do. So long as Aldana doesn’t get caught up in a close-range brawl, this is her fight to lose. Strong jabs, crosses, and distance management carry her to her fourth win in five fights.
Prediction: Aldana via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Steven “Ocho” Peterson (17-9) vs. Martin “Toro” Bravo (11-2)
You wouldn’t think you could make a compelling fight out of two guys who just lost to Alex Caceres, but here we are. Peterson and Bravo share a mutual disdain for taking a single step back, meaning these two are going to collide in the center until somebody flinches.
This is as close to a mirror match as you’re likely to get; Peterson’s the more determined wrestler and Bravo is the better striker, but the distinctions will go out the window as soon as they start trading. Expect the announcers to spout something like “who wants it more?” at every given opportunity.
All that said, Bravo does seem to have the slightest of edges; Peterson consistently fails to make his wrestling work against strong competition and is worryingly hittable. While he’s durable enough to take Bravo’s best shots and potentially relentless enough to sway a judge through pure aggression, it’ll be “Toro” landing the more telling blows. Superior strike quality carries Bravo to a narrow victory.
Prediction: Bravo via split decision
To see more on UFC Fight Night 159: “Rodriguez vs. Stephens” and everything else ESPN+ has to offer, check out our comprehensive event archive right here.