Strikeforce Lightweight Championship bout: Gilbert Melendez vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri
Odds: (-300 Melendez /+240 Kawajiri )
Betting Pick: Melendez
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In the semi-main event, Lightweight champion Gilbert Melendez will defend his title against legendary Japanese striker Tatsuya Kawajiri. While Kawajiri is not totally lost on the ground and Melendez does have some striking, in many ways this is an old-school style vs. style matchup. If Kawajiri can keep the fight standing, he is in prime position to win, but Melendez will manhandle him if he can get it to the ground, so this is an interesting fight. If Kawajiri wants to avoid a repeat of his 2006 loss to Melendez, he is going to need to show improved takedown defense and crisper striking.
Tatsuya “Crusher” Kawajiri is a very dynamic and effective striker who also has a fairly underrated ground game. He has been a mainstay of Japanese MMA for years, and has fought a lot of the best Lightweights in the world, losing only to the very best. Kawajiri’s problem is that he is not a great wrestler and his offense tends to be predictable. He likes to let his hands go and fight aggressively and he rarely uses his grappling offensively. Against Melendez there is absolutely no reason he would want to take it to the ground, so he needs to make sure his takedown defense is on point. One interesting thing to consider is that Kawajiri is not used to fighting in a cage and is reportedly not even training with a cage, which could prove a big disadvantage against a superior grappler.
Gilbert Melendez is inarguably the top Lightweight in the world outside of UFC. In 20 professional fights, he has never been finished, and he avenged his only two losses in dramatic fashion. Melendez actually has very solid boxing, but his best work is very clearly his wrestling and his ground and pound. He actually has some skills in the submission department, but he prefers to maintain top position and dole out punishment with his hands, and he is very effective at doing it. Chances are he could at least hold his own standing with Kawajiri, but there is no reason he should even chance it since the gap on the ground is so wide.
As with most striker vs. grappler style matchups, this one favors Melendez, the grappler. He controlled Kawajiri physically in their last fight, and his wrestling and top control have only continued to improve. I don’t see how Kawajiri can possibly keep this fight standing, and once it goes to the ground Melendez will dominate him with positional control and ground and pound. Kawajiri is tough and experienced, so he should be able to hang in the fight, but I expect his offense to be minimal and for Melendez to earn a lopsided decision win.
Prediction: Gilbert Melendez via unanimous decision.
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