Photo by James Chance/Getty Images
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) enjoys its first main card on ESPN2 later tonight (Fri., Oct. 18, 2019), bringing some notable names along as its hits TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts.
Former Middleweight kingpin Chris Weidman takes center stage, attempting to resuscitate his mixed martial arts (MMA) career against undefeated knockout artist Dominick Reyes. The co-main once featured a clash of prospects between Zabit Magomedsharipov and Calvin Kattar, but got an excellent replacement in the Yair Rodriguez-Jeremy Stephens grudge match.
The main card also features Greg Hardy, Joe Lauzon, and talented up-and-comers like Maycee Barber and Deron Winn.
Our usual main card guy accidentally wore a Yankees hat and was mauled by pissed-off Red Sox fans, so y’all’ll have to deal with me once again. Prelims here and here, degenerate gambling advice here.
Showtime.
205 lbs.: Dominick “The Devastator” Reyes (11-0) vs. Chris “The All-American” Weidman (14-4)
For as long as he’s spent in the Octagon, Reyes still has some lingering questions around his ceiling that have kept him from ditching the “prospect” label in favor of “contender.” The UFC has carefully avoided putting him up against wrestlers better than Ovince Saint Preux and made this his first time scheduled for five rounds, both potential gray areas that Weidman thrives in. At his best, “The All-American” has the exact toolbox needed to drag Reyes into unfamiliar waters and find out if he’ll sink or swim.
At the same time, Weidman doesn’t have a shred of momentum. He’s been dropped and/or stopped in each of his last five fights, and his pressure style demands a level of confidence and durability that I’m not sure he possesses anymore. He’s also in unfamiliar waters of his own at 205 pounds, a daunting prospect considering how integral his physicality is to his success.
That’s not to say there’s nothing going in his favor, however. He’s actually got the reach advantage and it remains to be seen how comfortable Reyes will be unleashing his kicking arsenal when a caught kick can spell the end. Plus, Weidman’s top control is far stronger than anything Reyes has dealt with before, even taking into account the weight difference; Reyes got out from underneath Saint Preux and Volkan Oezdemir, but this is a different level of ground prowess.
Of course, none of that matters if Weidman isn’t conscious long enough to actually use any of it. I can’t exactly have faith in a chin that’s failed over and over again; even in his one victory since 2015, Kelvin Gastelum dropped him hard and might have gotten the finish had the fence not been there to intercept the back of Weidman’s head on its way to the mat. Reyes absolutely hits hard enough to recreate those efforts, and Weidman steering clear of incoming fire long enough to get his gameplan going seems a remote possibility. Reyes clips him for the finish after a competitive first round.
Prediction: Reyes via second-round technical knockout
155 lbs.: Yair “Pantera” Rodriguez (11-2) vs. Jeremy Stephens (28-16)
Here’s what I had to say the last time these two were set to go at it:
If you’re someone who gets frustrated by people not fighting smart, avert ye eyes. Rather than use his myriad physical gifts and bottomless striking toolbox to form a cohesive offensive onslaught, Rodriguez is content to haphazardly throw things at the wall until something sticks. Rather than set up his teeth-rattling power punches with his jab or properly utilize his crushing low kicks, Stephens remains brawl-happy after over a decade in the Octagon.
God, I pity their coaching staff.
The knee-jerk reaction here is to look at Stephens’ struggles with Zabit Magomedsharipov and use the latter’s superficial stylistic resemblance to Rodriguez to extrapolate. Thing is, Magomedsharipov’s wrestling essentially gave him a get-out-of-jail-free card any time Stephens started picking up momentum, and though Rodriguez is no slouch in that area, he’s not “Zabeast.” This stays on the feet, where both men “just need one.”
Stephens’ “one” seems a bit more likely to me. As said before, Rodriguez doesn’t set up spinning and jumping shenanigans, instead using his athleticism to catch people by surprise. Chan Sung Jung avoided them for 20 minutes by staying patient, which Stephens can do if so inclined. The less-dramatic pieces of “El Pantera’s” arsenal don’t seem like they pack enough oomph to slow Stephens down considering “Lil’ Heathen’s” ability to withstand power shots from Doo Ho Choi and Josh Emmett.
It’ll be a wash while Rodriguez is fresh; hell, he’ll probably make Stephens look stupid for a few minutes, dancing at range and slamming all manner of kick-based chicanery into his guard. Once the leg kicks start piling up and Rodriguez slows down, though, he won’t be able to escape those sledgehammers for long. Stephens again weathers an early storm to pound his man out.
Prediction: Stephens via third-round technical knockout
They’re only booked for three rounds this time, which definitely favors Rodriguez, and the fact that they’re so pissed at each other will almost assuredly result in a far different style of fight than they would have had without the eye poke. An emotional slugfest still favors Stephens, though, and even without the extra 10 minutes to enervate Rodriguez with low kicks, I still see him as the likelier of the two to land his game-changer. The prediction stands.
Prediction: Stephens via third-round technical knockout
265 lbs.: Greg Hardy (5-1) vs. Ben “Seki” Sosoli (7-2, 1 NC)
I can’t really complain about this matchup, considering that it was originally Hardy vs. Jarjis Danho, but what do we stand to learn from watching Hardy fight another willing slugger? We already know the dude hits like a freight train, and it’s not like Sosoli is an outstanding technician or anything.
Really, the the only point of intrigue is Sosoli’s durability. He’s got a concrete dome and Hardy’s ability to stay dangerous past the first round remains in question. Sosoli certainly hits hard enough to capitalize dramatically if Hardy slows down; he’ll have to wade through a hell of a lot of fire to do it, though, and it’s not exactly difficult to find the Aussie’s chin.
It’s hard to justify picking against Hardy when he’s got an easy target, even if that target doesn’t figure to go down easy. Sosoli slugs it out with him until a big right hand flips the switch, and hopefully the UFC is sufficiently impressed to stop coddling Hardy.
Prediction: Hardy via first-round knockout
155 lbs.: Joe “J-Lau” Lauzon (27-15) vs. Jonathan “JSP” Pearce (9-3)
I like Joe Lauzon; it’s hard not to, honestly. He’s funny, charismatic, and constantly looks for the finish.
But when your only wins in the last five years were a controversial decision over Marcin Held and finishes of the completely shot Diego Sanchez and Takanori Gomi, it might be time to re-evaluate things. Especially if you just got pummeled into submission by the painfully mediocre Chris Gruetzemacher.
While Pearce’s nickname oversells his abilities by a frankly ludicrous margin, he’s got the tools to spoil Lauzon’s comeback. He’s insanely durable, tough to take down, and has the cardio to capitalize when Lauzon’s own gas tank inevitably fails him. The only real point of concern is Pearce’s shaky submission defense, but Lauzon has to either drop Pearce or take him down to make that a factor, neither which seems likely.
Lauzon has about three minutes to get Pearce out of there before the usual script plays out once again. I don’t see it happening. Pearce tanks a beating in the early going before pummeling a gassed Lauzon into submission.
Prediction: Pearce via third-round technical knockout
115 lbs.: Maycee “The Future” Barber (7-0) vs. Gillian Robertson (7-3)
The matchmaking on display here is phenomenal; this is exactly the sort of fight these two need. Barber needs to prove she can handle capable wrestlers and Robertson’s standup remains a question mark. I expect this to be an extremely positive experience for both women, win or lose.
Emphasis on the “lose” for Barber.
There’s a ton to like about the 21-year-old’s style, namely her stopping power and killer instinct. There’s almost as much to dislike; she’s easy to hit and overly linear in her approach. The aforementioned power had to bail her out against JJ Aldrich, and Robertson’s single-minded pursuit of the takedowns will give Barber far fewer opportunities to land that tide-turning strike.
Barber’s naked kicks and tendency to just march forward into the clinch both present golden opportunities for Robertson to drag her to the mat and unleash that nasty top control of hers. Unless Barber can crack Robertson coming in with a knee or elbow, this looks like what could charitably be described as a “learning experience” for the former. Robertson ties up, pulls her down, and pounds away until she finds the choke.
Prediction: Robertson via first-round submission
185 lbs.: Deron Winn (6-0) vs. Darren “The Dentist” Stewart (10-4)
Meaning absolutely no disrespect to Eric Spicely, Winn really should have looked better against him. Struggling with Spicely’s jiu-jitsu is one thing, but going life-and-death with him on the feet is cause for concern. I’m really hoping it was just Octagon jitters, because Winn has the wrestling pedigree to make a real impact, especially under the tutelage of Daniel Cormier.
If it wasn’t jitters, then he might be in trouble.
Stewart’s come a long way since going winless in his first four UFC fights, developing into a highly effective power striker who can change the momentum of a fight seemingly at a whim. Winn ate over a hundred strikes from Spicely; there’s no way in Hell he’d survive the same against Stewart. To make matters even more difficult, Stewart does his best work at close range, which is where the far shorter Winn has to be in order to get any real offense going.
That said, Stewart did get taken down eight times by Edmen Shahbazyan just two fights back; he stayed on his feet against Bevon Lewis, but Lewis was weirdly gunshy that entire fight. Plus, Stewart’s reach advantage is minimal despite the height difference. With a successful Octagon debut under his belt, I expect a far more composed performance from Winn, who uses his strong wrestling and high-output punching to take a decision.
Unless that botched weight cut leaves him out of sorts.
Prediction: Winn via unanimous decision
For more on “Weidman vs. Reyes” and the rest of the UFC’s ESPN collection, check out our comprehensive event archive here.