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Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren card in Singapore.
The Bloody Elbow team has made its predictions for UFC Singapore, and most of us are going with Ben Askren over Demian Maia in the main event. As for the co-main event, it’s a clean sweep for Michael Johnson over Stevie Ray.
Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.
Demian Maia vs. Ben Askren
Anton Tabuena: The only thing that gives me pause in this prediction is 41-year-old Maia’s conditioning for five rounds. If this was three rounds, I wouldn’t even bat an eye, as Maia will have a significant advantage on the striking department and could easily win a couple of rounds early on. On a five round fight, it’s much closer as Askren could conceivably survive getting busted up in the feet, and eventually just grind out a decision as Maia slows and gives up takedowns and positions easier. Tough pick, but I’m going with who I think is clearly the more well rounded and skilled MMA fighter. Demian Maia by split decision.
Mookie Alexander: I’d probably pick Maia if this was 3-4 years ago, but I just can’t help but think he’s going to fade badly as the fight progresses. There’s really no reason to worry about Askren’s cardio, and if Maia is made to work for positions by Askren then he may just tire out even more quickly. Yeah, he’s the better striker than Askren but I can’t trust that he’ll be able to keep it on the feet that long, and unless he stops Askren quickly, there’s a good chance the second-half of the contest will involve Maia shooting bad takedowns and Askren winding up on top. I hope this fight is reasonably entertaining but there’s a good chance it sucks out loud. Ben Askren by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: I’d love to see Maia win this, and considering the general lack of top quality grapplers Askren has faced (yes I know he fought Aoki, but still), he definitely has a shot. But, honestly, it’d be a pretty big feat for the 41-year-old BJJ legend. He has always suffered against wrestlers, in part because so much of his BJJ game depends on his own technical wrestling and positional dominance over aggressive sub hunting. Fighters who can control position just don’t let him get much offense started. He also has a deeply ingrained willingness to pull guard and hit single leg sweeps. He’s great at them, but that could mean a basic willingness to give up lots of top control to Askren early in rounds. It just seems like a recipe too well made for Askren to get ride time and land strikes and score points. Even if Maia reverses, can he get the sub or create enough of his own offense to sway judges? I can’t bank on it. Ben Askren by decision.
Staff picking Maia: Ed, Nick, Anton
Staff picking Askren: Phil, Zane, Dayne, Mookie, Stephie
Michael Johnson vs. Stevie Ray
Mookie Alexander: Michael Johnson isn’t quite Melvin Guillard, but he has Melvin Guillard-esque tendencies that turn Ws into Ls in an instant. I don’t think Ray is athletic, powerful, or fast enough to pose any of the problems we’ve seen befuddle Michael before. Michael Johnson by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Ray doesn’t look much like the fighters that have caused Johnson so much trouble over the years. Notably they’ve tended to be high output strikers and wrestlers who are willing to stay on him and keep him from getting a chance to get comfortable and really let his speed dictate the action. Johnson leads well with kicks, counters well off the back foot, but pressed hard enough, he makes continuous defensive mistakes that get him caught and finished. Ray has found his most comfort standing as a back foot kicker, himself, and often gets a bit lost defensively when pushing forward with multiple punches. If he can’t keep pressure on Johnson, I don’t see him matching Johnson’s speed at range. Michael Johnson by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Michael Johnson gained something in his drop to featherweight, and it was mainly “the ability to have boring fights,” where he steadily picked away at Myles Jury. This was in some ways a welcome ability to stick to a gameplan, but it also indicated that perhaps a bit of his physicality and speed is waning. That being said, as Zane pointed out Ray is a fairly welcoming style matchup, who isn’t going to pressure or put a pace on Johnson. He’s neither physical enough to hulk Johnson around, or fast enough to keep up. Michael Johnson by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Johnson: Phil, Ed, Zane, Nick, Anton, Dayne, Mookie, Stephie
Staff picking Ray:
Frank Camacho vs. Beneil Dariush
Anton Tabuena: Camacho has power to turn things around, but Dariush will probably win the clinch and grappling exchanges here. Beneil Dariush by Decision.
Mookie Alexander: I’ll be that guy. Dariush quietly packs a good punch and of course he’s a really talented grappler, but he’s got a big ol’ button on his chin and Camacho is perfectly capable of hitting it. If Camacho is more committed to patient footwork and choosing his shots better like he did vs. Nick Hein, I think he’ll outstrike Dariush, hurt him, and finish him. Should he opt to brawl and leave himself open for takedowns or back takes off of scrambles, then this could be a nightmare. I’m going for the minor upset, I just think we’ve seen Dariush’s ceiling over the years. Frank Camacho by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: I really want to see Camacho win this, he’s one of my favorite low-profile fighters, just for his pressure and pocket combination punching. And he absolutely has the power and variety to land the kind of shots that can finish Dariush at any time. However, I’m just not convinced he will keep the fight away from Dariush’s strengths. Camacho likes to clinch, he likes to wrestle, and he likes to stay close to opponents. That gives Dariush a lot of opportunities to get to dominant clinch positions and get his wrestle and grapple on. Maybe Camacho still wins that fight, but I’ve got to lean on Dariush as the better fighter there. Beneil Dariush by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: On the one hand, Dariush is looking like he is not able to enforce a physical game. Like Rory Mac over in Bellator, his striking looks to have eroded somewhat along with some essential confidence, and so he’s basically just a wrestler. However, he still has decent footwork and a much more focused approach than, say, Nick Hein. I think there’s a fairly big chance that Camacho just out-brutals him, but Frank tends to take the fight he’s given. Beneil Dariush by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Camacho: Ed :(, Nick, Mookie
Staff picking Dariush: Phil, Zane, Anton, Dayne, Stephie
Cyril Gane vs. Don’Tale Mayes
Mookie Alexander: I mean, it’s unranked heavyweights, but one has higher upside. Cyril Gane by TKO, round 1.
Zane Simon: Gane is just smoother and more technical everywhere than Mayes. He’s more composed defensively (although I worry that his defense isn’t as good as he thinks it is), he’s more crisp and less wild with his strikes. And he’s more willing to wrestle and grapple as needed to keep control of the fight. It’s heavyweight, so Mayes may be able to just one-shot him anyway, but I’ve gotta go Cyril Gane via TKO, round 1.
Staff picking Gane: Ed, Zane, Nick, Anton, Phil, Dayne, Mookie, Stephie
Staff picking Mayes:
Muslim Salikhov vs. Laureano Staropoli
Mookie Alexander: Staropoli is a wild man, which means he’ll probably be in a war with the King of Kung Fu. That seems like a bad idea. Muslim Salikhov by spinning kick KO, round 2.
Zane Simon: Staropoli is going to throw a lot of strikes. He may not land that many of them, but he’ll put out all the offense in the world. It’s up to Salikhov to either match pace, or find those perfect kill-shot counters he’s made a career out of. Just because Staropoli is so inaccurate and active, I think Salikhov can get it done. His pressure against Taleb looked more nuanced and hard to shake than ever. But if he doesn’t get the KO, Staropoli may just drown him in volume. Muslim Salikhov via KO, round 2.
Staff picking Salikhov: Ed, Zane, Nick, Anton, Phil, Dayne, Mookie, Stephie
Staff picking Staropoli:
Randa Markos vs. Ashley Yoder
Mookie Alexander: Yoder looks improved from her early days in the UFC, but Markos is a much better wrestler and grappler than the likes of Amanda Cooper and Syuri Kondo. Markos is often at the center of headscratching in-fight decision making, but on paper she has the advantages on the ground to win this one. Randa Markos by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: For all her inconsistencies, Markos doesn’t tend to get out-grappled (Cortney Casey notwithstanding). She can get overly tracked in on singularly unsuccessful parts of her game, but most of those are when she’s forced to stay standing. Yoder has improved a lot. Her form and her aggression seem much more well targeted than ever. But, at heart, she still wants her fights on the mat, where she can win the scramble. I don’t think she’ll win this one. Randa Markos by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Unless she’s in a cripplingly obvious style matchup, Markos’ ability to enforce a gameplan is woeful. However, it shouldn’t really matter that much because this is the kind of fight that she is built to win- grapplers where she can get drawn into a dogged war of scrambling and ugly striking. She’s bigger, the harder hitter and probably the better wrestler. Randa Markos by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Markos: Phil, Ed, Zane, Nick, Anton, Dayne, Mookie, Stephie
Staff picking Yoder:
Alex White vs. Rafael Fiziev
Zane Simon: I have some real concerns about Fiziev’s tendency to start fights with pressure and very small-movement focused defense. It’s a combination that can & may lead him into more big shots from his opponent early, just like the one Mustafaev hit him with. But, Mustafaev is unusually fast and powerful for a lightweight. And White, while a capable pocket brawler with a lot of toughness, just isn’t those things. White has been beatable through a variety of methods by a variety of opponents. He still hits hard and swings wild, so he may catch Fiziev slipping, but I doubt he can put him away with the same instantaneous ferocity that Mustafaev brought. And without that, Fiziev is just a much more nuanced, versatile striker with more ranges and options to work with. Rafael Fiziev by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Maybe you’re like me, and you were tricked by the blandishments of Ed “The Trickster” Gallo into picking Fiziev to win his debut against Magomed Mustafaev, and were subsequently appalled to see Fiziev get randomly athleted. Maybe you’re like me, and you’re going to pick him again to beat Alex White because he seems better than him everywhere, and White is just not the force that Mustafaev is. Also Mustafaev got lucky! Rafael Fiziev by unanimous decision.
Staff picking White: Anton
Staff picking Fiziev: Ed, Zane, Nick, Phil, Dayne, Mookie, Stephie
Enrique Barzola vs. Movsar Evloev
Zane Simon: Barzola seems like he’s moving his game more toward being a volume striker and less toward being a volume wrestler. And I won’t lie, that worries me a bit. As a wrestler, Barzola’s doggedness and scrambling ability made him a real handful at featherweight. As a striker, he just doesn’t seem like he has the technical knowhow to dominate opponents. And if he’s going to spend a round or so dedicated to throwing hands, I think it’ll be exactly what Evloev needs to get his own wrestling game going first. Maybe Barzola’s takedown defense is fantastic, it’s basically never been tested, but if it isn’t and Evloev gets in on his hips first, I think Barzola’s headed for a taste of the exact same grind he’s put on so many opponents. Movsar Evloev by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Barzola’s astonishing doggedness can only take him so far. He isn’t a technical wrestler or striker, and relies on volume and never going away to make either facet work. Aguilar was too big and composed and powerful on the feet, and it’s hard not to feel that Evloev will just have too much of an edge in picking up top position. Movsar Evloev by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Barzola:
Staff picking Evloev: Phil, Ed, Zane, Nick, Anton, Dayne, Mookie, Stephie
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Maurice Greene
Zane Simon: I liked the flashes of combination boxing Pavlovich showed last time out, and I still have big concerns about Greene’s inability to keep his back off the cage, or stay out of the clinch. I don’t think he’ll even have a reach advantage here to speak of. So if he’s letting Pavlovich push forward and tie him up, I think he’s going to find himself in a slog of a fight. Sergei Pavlovich by decision.
Staff picking Pavlovich: Ed, Zane, Anton, Phil, Dayne, Mookie, Stephie
Staff picking Greene: Nick
Loma Lookboonmee vs. Alexandra Albu
Anton Tabuena: Not a lot of Thai prospects make it to the UFC, but seems like Loma, despite being a bit undersized, can probably do really well and have a decent stint with the promotion. Loma Lookboonmee by Decision.
Zane Simon: Lookboonmee has some real skills as a kicker from outside, a clinch fighter in tight, and a top control GnP artist off the takedown. Albu has some great beach muscles, but has shown zero ability to control any bout she’s in, even with a huge physical advantage. Hard to see how she beats Lookboonmee, unless she’s made some big advances in her time off. Loma Lookboonmee by decision.
Staff picking Lookboonmee: Ed, Zane, Nick, Anton, Phil, Mookie, Stephie
Staff picking Albu: Dayne
Raphael Pessoa vs. Jeff Hughes
Zane Simon: Pessoa is bigger and more instantly dangerous, but it also seems like he’s doing an incredibly messy Conor McGregor impression that’s more likely to leave him gassed quickly than result in a highlight KO. Hughes doesn’t have any flash to his game, but he’s tough and persistent and knows how to keep a fight going for all 15 minutes. Expect Pessoa to start hot and fade fast. Jeff Hughes via decision.
Staff picking Pessoa: Ed
Staff picking Hughes: Zane, Nick, Anton, Phil, Dayne, Mookie, Stephie