UFC 111 – St. Pierre VS. Hardy takes place this Saturday, March 27 in the Garden State. For those of you who have suffered through the UFC’s recent title fight drought (except for you BJ, thanks!), UFC 111 gives us not one but TWO belt-worthy contests.
The main event features seemingly unstoppable UFC Welterweight champion George “Rush” St. Pierre squaring off against sledgehammer handed Dan “Outlaw” Hardy. The co-main event is an interim Heavyweight title bout between Frank Mir and Shane Carwin. Due to Thiago Alves’ last minute health issues, Jon Fitch will now be facing Ben Saunders.
As always, these picks are the opinion of one man. Follow my betting advice with discretion and only wager as much as you feel comfortable losing. I will only be writing predictions and betting analysis for those bouts in which I believe have betting value. If you want more information on the card in its entirety, check out MMAMoneyLine’s “Pros’ Picks” for UFC 111. Without further adieu, here are MMAMoneyLine’s official picks and betting analysis for UFC 111 – St. Pierre VS. Hardy
Frank Mir VS. Shane Carwin
In what has become a pattern in the UFC’s Heavyweight division, a wily, talented veteran is facing the young, hungry, up and coming contender (see Mir/Lesnar, Nogueira/Velasquez, Gonzaga/Carwin, Gonzaga/dos Santos, Filipovic/dos Santos etc.). We all know what Frank Mir is capable of: world class BJJ coupled with improved striking and added strength. Shane Carwin is a bit more of a wildcard. Carwin has scary wrestling and ground and pound coupled with the kind of KO power rarely seen in any fighter. However, because all of his fights have ended via KO in the first round, we don’t have any solid evidence of his stamina or submission defense. At least the Gonzaga fight showed us he can take a hard shot.
It is going to be difficult to convince me that this fight is going to be any different than Lesnar/Mir II. No matter how much mass Mir gains, how much strength he adds or how often he drills wrestling, he is still going to be out-muscled and out wrestled by Carwin.
I can’t imagine Frank Mir’s gameplan being anything but utilizing his newly found/possibly overrated striking and reverting to his submission game if the situation presents itself. Mir will be the more technical striker of the two but as we’ve seen in the Gonzaga fight in particular, Carwin can knock out a big, tough Heavyweight with very short punches.
If you’re betting Mir in this fight, you’re assuming two things: Mir has the technical striking and defense to outwork Carwin to a five round decision and Mir has the ability to submit Carwin if Shane gets sloppy. I wholeheartedly agree with the second point, but the first one is very unlikely. If this fight was three rounds, Mir might have a better shot. However, Carwin’s extensive wrestling background and training leads me to believe he will have a bigger gas tank than the former champ.
This fight begins and ends on the feet, where Mir uses his striking effectively for a bit but eventually gets caught with a right hand. Carwin drops Mir and capitalizes with fierce ground and pound, not giving Mir a chance for a submission and eventually rendering him bloody and unconscious.
My pick: Shane Carwin via TKO in the second
Betting play: I was pretty surprised at this line when it came out, and still am pretty shocked that it hasn’t moved much. There is a lot of faith in Mir in this contest, and I just don’t see it. MMAMoneyLine recommends a healthy bet on Carwin at +130 at SportBet.
Kurt Pellegrino VS. Fabricio Camoes
In a newly appointed main card bout, former Lightweight contender Kurt Pellegrino looks to use his wrestling to grind out talented Brazilian Fabricio Camoes. However, that may be easier said than done. Camoes is being grossly underrated here judging by his line. His first and only UFC fight was a draw against veteran Caol Uno, a fight he would have won if it weren’t for a foul resulting in a point deduction.
Both of these fighters are very well rounded and dangerous in any position. Pellegrino is the more technical striker, but Camoes has more explosive, powerful striking. Pellegrino has the wrestling edge, but not by much as Camoes is a more than competent grappler. If this fight hits the mat (which it most certainly will), both of these guys are about dead even. Camoes is arguably the more accomplished BJJ player, but Pellegrino is also a black belt and has handled BJJ black belts before.
Sound like a coin flip to you? Sounds like one to me. The -215/+205 Pellegrino/Camoes line says different, and looks like an edge for us bettors. I still think Pellegrino wins this fight about 55% of the time, but the smart money is on Camoes. As a side note, Performify over at MMAJunkie has an interesting story about Fabricio Camoes that may change your opinion of the O-O-1 UFC fighter.
My pick: Pellegrino via split decision
Betting play: Camoes at +205 is a very good line. MMAMoneyLine recommends a small play on Morango at Sportsbook.
Ricardo Almeida VS. Matt Brown
In one of the most competitive and polarizing fights on the UFC 111 card, BJJ wizard Ricardo Almeida will tangle with consummate bad ass Matt Brown. This fight will be Almeida’s maiden voyage in the UFC’s Welterweight division against a fellow converted Middleweight in Brown.
There’s two popular schools of thought here: Almeida is going to turn Brown into a pretzel with his world class BJJ or Brown is going to switch Almeida’s lights off. Almeida’s BJJ is some of the best in mixed martial arts, and he has the ability to submit anyone on any given day. However, his wrestling and striking leave a lot to be desired. Also, one has to wonder how Almeida will handle the weight cut.
While Almeida is a bit of a question mark, we know what to expect from Matt Brown. Heavy handed, tough as nails and surprisingly well rounded. Brown has good takedown and submission defense, but how much will that matter against a BJJ player on the level of Almeida?
Cachorrao has one clear cut road to finishing this fight. However, he is going to have to get through the Immortal’s formidable striking, takedown defense and strength advantage. I do not fall into either of the previous popular schools of thought, I believe this fight will be competitive for the first round or two with Brown catching Almeida late with a chin blast. You need more than one tool to make it to the next level, and trying to utilize that one tool when weak and tired is even more difficult.
My pick: Matt Brown via 3rd round KO
Betting play: Brown’s best odds are +140 at 5Dimes. MMAMoneyLine likes a bet on Brown at 42% considering he should be at worst even.
Rodney Wallace VS. Jared Hamman
Most people think this is a 50/50 fight. Allow me to make the case on why it isn’t. In your standard wrestler versus striker fight, Rodney Wallace will be looking to take Jared Hamman down before Hamman gets a chance to put rights and lefts to his face. While Hamman does have good power and far superior striking, it is extremely difficult to knock a guy out who is constantly shooting in. Adding the fact that Wallace is very athletic and has an extremely good chin, Hamman’s best bet looks like a knee catching Wallace on the way in.
Wallace’s last fight with Brian Stann was very competitive, but “Sho Nuff the Master”’s gas tank betrayed him late. Wallace was able to take down Stann with relative ease. While Stann isn’t the most talented takedown defender, he is a formidable grappler who trains at one of the best wrestling gyms in the country. Wallace should have little problems getting Hamman to the mat.
Unless Rodney Wallace comes into this fight with the worst gameplan ever or his stamina hasn’t improved, I believe he is a strong favorite here. Hamman absolutely has the ability to put Wallace in trouble, but it’s hard betting against an explosive, iron chinned wrestler here.
My pick: Rodney Wallace via TKO (ground and pound) in the 2nd
Betting play: MMAMoneyLine likes a bet on Rodney Wallace at -130 at Bodog.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
St. Pierre/SUB/2
Carwin/TKO/2
Fitch/UD
Miller/UD
Pellegrino/SD
Diaz/SUB/1
Brown/TKO/3
Wallace/TKO/2
Palhares/UD
Riddle/UD
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
Carwin – 2 u. at +130 on SportBet
Camoes – .5 u at +205 on SportsBook
Brown – .75 u at +140 on 5Dimes
Wallace – .5 u at -130 on Bodog