Photo credit should read FADEL SENNA/AFP via Getty Images
Get a detailed breakdown of the betting lines for UFC on ESPN 14, which is set to hit “Fight Island” in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, this weekend (Weds., July 25, 2020), including best bets, underdogs, favorites and much more!
Two of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight division’s premier striking technicians battle it out this Saturday (July 25, 2020) when Robert Whittaker and Darren Till cap off the promotion’s four-card stint on “Fight Island” in Abu Dhabi United Arab Emirates. UFC on ESPN also features a “Shogun” Mauricio Rua vs. “Minotouro” Antonio Rogerio Nogueira trilogy match and Alexander Gustafsson’s Heavyweight debut opposite Fabricio Werdum.
Dana White and Co. haven’t skimped on the gambling opportunities for this “Fight Island” finale. And it would be remiss of us not to take full advantage. Shall we?
What Went Wrong at UFC Fight Island 2?
Welp, there go the last of the profits from UFC 251. I’ll own the Montel Jackson miss — I knew he’d been controlled before, but figured he’d hurt Brett Johns more than he ended up doing in the process. As far as Joe Duffy, I still can’t wrap my head around it. That’s because Joel Alvarez is a historically poor wrestler who relies on opponents willingly taking him to the ground. Duffy had one guaranteed way to lose that fight and he dove headfirst into it.
Still in the black, though. Nowhere to go but forward …
UFC On ESPN 14 Odds For The Undercard:
Francisco Trinaldo (-170) vs. Jai Herbert (+150)
Nicolas Dalby (-265) vs. Jesse Ronson (+225)
Tom Aspinall (-230) vs. Jake Collier (+190)
Movsar Evloev (-195) vs. Mike Grundy (+168)
Tanner Boser (-270) vs. Raphael Pessoa (+230)
Pannie Kianzad (-150) vs. Bethe Correia (+130)
Ramazan Emeev (-400) vs. Niklas Stolze (+325)
Nathaniel Wood (-475) vs. John Castañeda (+380)
Thoughts: Casting a wide net seems like the best solution here. Francisco Trinaldo, Tom Aspinall, Movsar Evloev, Tanner Boser, and Pannie Kianzad all stand out as solid investments.
Jai Herbert’s significant height and reach advantages over “Massaranduba” are undercut by his tendencies to both linger in the pocket and get bullied into the fence. At his best, Trinaldo can completely defuse striking technicians with his pressure and physicality, as we saw against Paul Felder. While the Brazilian probably isn’t at his best at the age of 41, he’s still got the tools to thoroughly ruin “The Black Country Brawler’s” debut.
Tom Aspinall is a 6’5”, 240-pound natural Heavyweight with quality grappling and a lights-out right hand. Jake Collier spent the first four fights of his UFC career at Middleweight and hasn’t fought in nearly three years. This isn’t exactly a head-scratcher.
I’ve long been high on Evloev’s potential, and as concerning as his apparently cardio issues against Enrique Barzola were, his history of successful title bouts and Barzola’s inhuman pace suggest that was an outlier. He’s the superior submission artist and technical striker in this match up; indeed, his jab looks like a quality counter to Grundy’s high-speed potshots and he should own the scrambles. Bet accordingly.
Tanner Boser looked nothing like his old self against Philipe Lins. And for seemingly the first time in his career, he managed to inject genuine power and excitement into his out-fighting style. Raphael Pessoa had all kinds of trouble with another long-range stylist in Ciryl Gane, and though Boser lacks the Frenchman’s height and reach, he should be able to run circles around Pessoa.
It’s easy to write Correia off, but “Pitbull” does have some genuine skills. I actually thought she was starting to pull away against one of the division’s top contenders in Irene Aldana before getting caught in that armbar, and she boxed up Sijara Eubanks something fierce. That said, Kianzad’s got height and reach on her, not to mention an apparent newfound willingness to throw much-needed volume. “Banzai” can be inconsistent, so don’t put much on her, but a bit makes sense, especially if you nudge her into the positives with Nathaniel Wood.
UFC On ESPN 14 Odds For The Main Card:
Robert Whittaker (-120) vs. Darren Till (EVEN)
Mauricio Rua (-185) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+160)
Alexander Gustafsson (-350) vs. Fabricio Werdum (+290)
Marina Rodriguez (-180) vs. Carla Esparza (+158)
Paul Craig (-125) vs. Gadzhimurad Antigulov (+105)
Alex Oliveira (-170) vs. Peter Sobotta (+150)
Khamzat Chimaev (-1200) vs. Rhys McKee (+755)
Thoughts: I’m not 100 percent sold on him, but Gadzhimurad Antigulov is a damn tempting underdog. Though the Russian’s submission-at-all-costs style failed him against Ion Cutelaba and Michal Oleksiejczuk, Paul Craig looks like he’d be pretty vulnerable to it — Antigulov figures to be the stronger wrestler of the two and Craig’s submission offense hasn’t correlated with strong submission defense during his time in the Octagon. I wouldn’t touch him at negative odds, but +105 is enough to make Antigulov worth a look.
UFC On ESPN 14 Best Bets:
- Parlay — Tom Aspinall and Tanner Boser: Bet $65 to make $57.69
- Parlay — Movsar Evloev and Francisco Trinaldo: Bet $40 to make $56
- Parlay — Pannie Kianzad and Nathaniel Wood: Bet $30 to make $30.60
- Single bet— Gadzhimurad Antigulov: Bet $50 to make $52.50
UFC on ESPN 14 features plenty of interesting newbies and a banger of a main event — Sign me up! See you Saturday, Maniacs.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC on ESPN 14 fight card this weekend, starting with the ESPN+/ESPN “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 5 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance on ESPN+/ESPN at 8 p.m. ET.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC on ESPN 14: “Whittaker vs. Till” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.