Photo by Hector Vivas/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC
Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for Saturday’s UFC VEGAS 10 card.
The Bloody Elbow team has made its predictions for and the majority of us are picking Angela Hill to beat Michelle Waterson in the co-main event. As for the co-main, opinion is split on what should be a fun matchup between Khama Worthy and Ottman Azaitar.
Michelle Waterson vs. Angela Hill
Mookie Alexander: If Hill’s takedown defense has improved then she’ll be able to withstand Waterson’s takedowns and her grappling. From there it just becomes a lot of range kickboxing with occasional clinch exchanges and the problem for Waterson is she just doesn’t throw enough or mount enough meaningful offense at distance. Hill throws with more power and she’s putting together her combinations better than ever before. I think Hill just outworks Waterson and takes a decision. Angela Hill by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: I’m always a little concerned about Hill’s tendency to make exactly the wrong read while defending a takedown and end up flat on her back. And while she’s mostly know for her kickboxing, Waterson really isn’t a bad wrestler or grappler at all. Still, assuming that the takedown defense Hill showed in later rounds against Claudia Gadelha is still in play, and given that she’s tended to work at a much faster pace than Waterson across her career, I gotta take Angela Hill by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: In order to make her game work, Waterson typically needs a wrestling edge, or she needs to be fighting one of the very few women in the division who are on a size parity with her. Hill has improved her lead hand work, pace and ability to force a range game, but squaring up may still be an issue against Waterson’s takedowns. However, Waterson is still going to be working uphill against size and pace – reference her fight against Casey where she ran out of gas and got clobbered late, over three rounds no less. Should be tight but Angela Hill by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Waterson: Dayne
Staff picking Hill: Mookie, Bissell, Zane, Phil
Khama Worthy vs. Ottman Azaitar
Mookie Alexander: Azaitar is stupidly powerful and Worthy has been knocked out a few times on the regional scene, so the combination of those two things makes Khama a prime candidate for an early KO loss. But as Zane says below, if it goes beyond round one I think Worthy’s win against Luis Pena convinced me that he’s better than I gave him credit for, and he’ll be the more composed, measured fighter in the latter stages and Azaitar will get too predictable. Khama Worthy by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: If this fight goes more than a round, Worthy probably wins it. He’s a solid counter puncher with a decent, enough pace, and a better than it has to be wrestling and grappling game to back it up. But, he’s also been caught a few times early by wild power punchers who won’t give him time and space to set up his counter shots. Azaitar is among the wildest, but also probably among the most powerful. Ottman Azaitar via KO, round 1.
Phil Mackenzie: I picked Worthy on Heavy Hands and am sort of regretting it? Azaitar wades forward like a man who has a lot of confidence in his chin and responds to strikes by hitting back as hard as he possibly can. Worthy has some chin issues and gets himself out of position when he throws, relying on the threat of his own power to bail him out. That being said, he does have the better round-winning style and Azaitar’s aggression should feed Worthy the counters he’s looking for. Hmm. Khama Worthy by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Worthy: Mookie, Bissell, Phil
Staff picking Azaitar: Dayne, Zane
Roxanne Modafferi vs. Andrea Lee
Mookie Alexander: First fight between these two was close, the rematch should be the same. I think Lee shades it but WAR ROXY and hopefully I’m proven wrong! Andrea Lee by split decision.
Zane Simon: It feels a bit like both fighters have improved the things they were already good at since their first fight while still struggling with longstanding problems. Modafferi’s boxing has gotten a lot better, but she still has big issues judging distance out in open space. Lee is a much better wrestler than she used to be, but still can get caught up pushing an aggressive game on the mat, only to be swept or taken down and wind up in bad spots. The core of this fight will be about how often Modafferi can get to the clinch, and whether or not she can then turn those clinch exchanges into takedowns. Because Lee tends to stand flat footed and actively wrestle herself, I’m gonna bank on it being just often enough to give Modafferi an incredibly close win. Roxanne Modafferi by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Lee has improved her jab and her wrestling, which feels like it should combine with her athletic edge to make her a pretty decent threat in this division. However, the thing which holds her back is that she is genuinely atrocious defensively, and Roxy has shown that she can make her range game and footwork work on opponents like the lesser Shevchenko who willingly plod into strikes. Roxanne Modafferi by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Modafferi: Bissell, Zane, Phil
Staff picking Lee: Mookie, Dayne
Ed Herman vs. Mike Rodríguez
Mookie Alexander: At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if entering this pick was just a waste of time and Herman has the misfortune of another cancellation. But if we’re lucky, this fight will happen and I favor Rodriguez to pretty much repeat the Prachnio gameplan and try and wipe Herman out early. If he can’t then uh… it could get extremely ugly. Rodriguez is not that quick, Herman is notoriously slow, but Herman is also the more well-rounded fighter and can win a grinding slog the longer the bout progresses. I’ll take my chances on a Rodriguez blowout. Mike Rodriguez by KO, round 1.
Zane Simon: Herman is still a very tough, hard to put away fighter, and he’s got a shockingly good clinch arsenal. Given Rodriguez’s own love of clinching up and delivering strikes, this could make for a really sloppy, weird fight. Still, I think Rodriguez is just too big, too fast, and too smooth from range for Herman to match him there. Not sure Rodriguez gets the KO, but I think he does just enough damage from outside to take the win. Mike Rodriguez by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Ed Herman has acclimatized to light heavyweight a bit, but it’s hard not to remember his fight against Krylov where he got straight up obliterated by a power kicking game from range. I have to pick him to wade through a fairly accurate power hand / head kick changeup and I’m just not going to do that. Also I am still very sad that we did not get Herman vs Meerschaert 🙁 Mike Rodriguez by KO round 1.
Staff picking Herman: Dayne
Staff picking Rodriguez: Mookie, Bissell, Zane, Phil
Alan Patrick vs. Bobby Green
Mookie Alexander: This is gonna be one weird-ass fight. If nothing else, Green has been much more disciplined in his recent performances than ever before. His wrestling is on point and his boxing is surely going to be too slick for Patrick, who hasn’t fought in ages and is heavily reliant on his athleticism to carry him in bouts. Bobby Green by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Patrick rarely ever wins a fight where he can’t dominate wrestling exchanges. And I think Green is just too good a wrestler to let that happen. Outside of that, he’s a much cleaner striker and he’s lately shown more willingness to lead behind his jab and create his own counterpunching exchanges. If he puts the pace on Patrick and stays off his back, I don’t see ‘Nuguette’ having the skill to match him. Bobby Green by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: If and when Green fights off the wrestling exchanges this fight could get strange and ugly fast. Green has a tendency to just follow opponents around the cage trying to goad them into exchanges, and Patrick does like to fight from the outside. However, Patrick is so achingly low pace that I don’t see him winning that fight even if he goes the Trinaldo / Barboza route. Bobby Green by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Patrick: Bissell
Staff picking Green: Mookie, Dayne, Zane, Phil
Billy Quarantillo vs. Kyle Nelson
Mookie Alexander: Quarantillo’s fight with Spike Carlyle made a fan out of me. He’ll outscramble and outgrapple Nelson until he submits him. Billy Quarantillo by submission, round 2.
Zane Simon: This seems like an exceptionally good fight for Quarantillo, who doesn’t have much of an athletic edge in the featherweight division, but makes up for it with a ton of cardio and a hard battling scrambling ground game. On the flip side, Nelson tends to come out guns blazing, and if he can’t finish the fight fast, flags badly. Expect this to look a lot like the Spike Carlyle fight, except with a bit less of a dramatic athletic disparity. Billy Quarantillo via submission, round 3.
Staff picking Quarantillo: Mookie, Dayne, Zane, Phil
Staff picking Nelson: Bissell
Rest of the card
Sijara Eubanks vs. Julia Avila
Staff picking Eubanks: Mookie
Staff picking Avila: Dayne, Bissell, Zane, Phil
Roosevelt Roberts vs. Kevin Croom
Staff picking Roberts: Mookie, Dayne, Bissell, Zane, Phil
Staff picking Croom:
Jalin Turner vs. Brok Weaver
Staff picking Turner: Mookie, Dayne, Bissell, Zane, Phil
Staff picking Weaver:
Alexander Romanov vs. Roque Martinez
Staff picking Romanov: Mookie, Dayne, Zane, Phil
Staff picking Martinez: Bissell
Bryan Barberena vs. Anthony Ivy
Staff picking Barberena: Mookie, Dayne, Zane, Phil
Staff picking Ivy: Bissell
Sabina Mazo vs. Justine Kish
Staff picking Mazo: Mookie, Bissell, Zane, Phil
Staff picking Kish: Dayne