UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa alternative stats

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A detailed breakdown of the position-by-position statistics to watch out for in Saturday’s UFC 253 fight card from Fight Island.

The UFC heads back to Fight Island this Saturday for a five-week stint with some seriously fun fights on the menu (see Marlon Moraes vs. Cory Sandhagen), culminating in the return of Khabib Nurmagomedov on Oct. 24 at UFC 254.

But first, the promotion’s last pre-pandemic champion, Israel Adesanya, returns to action this weekend at UFC 253 to see if he can pick apart an undefeated challenger in Paulo Costa who’s dished out a heavy serving of damage to all five fighters he’s faced inside the Octagon.

Saturday also sees the return of Dominick Reyes – the man who had an 86.3%, 90.5%, and 94.3% chance of winning each of the first three rounds against Jon Jones back in February and a 94.7% chance of winning the fight, according to RoboJudge – yet walked away beltless.

For a little fun, we’ll throw in some Diego Sanchez vs. Jake Matthews stats towards the end of this piece. So let’s jump into the numbers.

Remember, what you’re about to read are not official UFC statistics. They’re alternative stats generated from official statistics designed to (1) give more weight to the recent present than the distant past and (2) not let one huge or horrible performance dominate the data. See the notes at the bottom for definitions of certain statistics.

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Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa

The most obvious statistic in this fight is that both fighters are owners of completely unblemished records, not only in the UFC, but throughout their entire MMA careers.

But one I like better is that Costa has either knocked down or knocked out every opponent he’s faced inside the Octagon while Adesanya has twice as many knockdowns, knockouts, and what FightMetric calls “Damage” rounds (16 total) as he does bouts in the UFC (8).

This should be a mostly standup affair and predominantly contested at distance where Adesanya and Costa respectively spend 4:03 and 4:33 of every five minutes. Neither has ever even attempted a takedown shot at distance, and in the clinch they’ve only combined to attempt a total of four takedowns, not completing any of them.

So these guys don’t tend to off-balance their opponents to the canvas. They prefer to use eight limbs to rock their world.

Statistically, at distance, Costa’s game is one of crazy volume while Adesanya’s leans towards picking his shots and avoiding getting hit. Costa more than doubles Adesanya’s power strike output per five minutes in the position (P5M) where he lands an incredible 59% (49% to the head and 90% to the body; he rarely attacks the legs). The tradeoff is he also takes a fair amount of damage in return, absorbing 32% of power strikes to his head and 72% more total power strikes P5M anywhere on his body than an average middleweight.

Adesanya’s pace of output is about average, but man is he precise. Landing 41% of his head jabs and 50% of his overall power strikes (28% and 38% averages), Adesanya is able to pepper in damage while taking very little in return. Unlike Costa’s numbers, opponents only land 18% of their power strikes to Adesanya’s head, or just over three such strikes P5M. While Costa absorbs 72% more power strikes than average, Adesanya uses his incredible footwork, angles, slips, and feints to eat 46% less than average.

Even with their divergent approaches to distance striking, both fighters can do serious damage (see the first stat above). Their knockdown rates are both incredible and Adesanya’s precision can be seen in the fact that while Costa has a higher knockdown rate and round percentage, Adesanya’s one knockdown for every 6.3% of his standing power head strikes landed is almost 50% better than Costa’s 4.3% and 140% better than the middleweight average of 2.6%. Then for good measure add in that The Last Stylebender is also yet to be knocked down.

If things clinch up, Adesanya’s generally the one with his back to the cage (78%), but he also does a decent amount of clinch work in open space (21%) and throws roughly average power volume. Costa tends to clinch entirely off the cage more often than not (54%) and, just like at distance, he still keeps a crazy pace. While he only averages 16 seconds in the clinch per full five minute round, he throws almost 4x as many power strikes as an average middleweight P5M and lands over 4.5x in that time.

Should we even talk about the ground in this fight?

Here’s the only thing you likely need to know for the ground in case someone slips or gets dropped but not rocked: They both have incredible standup rates. Adesanya stands up 16.2 times P5M being controlled while Costa is a little worse but still outstanding at 10.8. A typical middleweight gets back to his feet at a rate of only 2.2 times.

We might not be able to say this will be a fun one in terms of slobber knocker status, but it will surely be enjoyable for everyone who loves the finer details of the art of violence (and violence avoidance).

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Dominick Reyes vs. Jan Blachowicz

We’ve got the man who should’ve been light heavyweight champion in Reyes defending his non-existent title against the #3 ranked challenger in Blachowicz.

Reyes would’ve added to the list of undefeated fighters in this piece if not for his statistically-unlikely Jon Jones scoring blemish, and Blachowicz, while he got off to a rocky start to his UFC career losing four of his first six bouts, he’s since gone 7-1 and is the perfect fighter for something like alternative stats (i.e., what have to done for me more recently?) rather than lifetime stats.

With alternative stats, Blachowicz’s power strike efficiency has improved on both offense and avoidance on defense. All three of his knockdown metrics are significantly better. His takedown attempts have dropped off, but at 93%, his clinch takedown defense looks to have developed (83% lifetime).

Reyes statistical game is to put a power strike beating on his opponents at distance. While he throws only 4.3 head jabs P5M, that increases to a whopping 72.6 for power strikes, nicely mixed up to the head, body, and legs. When he’s not at distance, he’s generally being pressed against the cage in the clinch (74% of the time), defending takedowns at solid 91% (distance) and 81% (clinch) clips, or standing up 14.9 times P5M being controlled on the ground.

During the 3 ½ minutes of every round he’s able to be in open space on his feet, he’s putting a huge power strike differential on his opponents. His knockdown metrics are all better than Blachowicz, and in addition to his sheer volume of output, he drops his opponents in over ¼ of his rounds. Reyes has also never been knocked down while Thiago Santos made Blachowicz eat the canvas a year-and-a-half ago

Blachowicz is certainly live here and has been statistically improving. He’s also 2-of-3 on his subs if Reyes gives him an opening. This may not necessarily have excitement written all over it, but I’m really looking forward to seeing how this one plays out.

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Diego Sanchez vs. Jake Matthews

What? I couldn’t resist.

At distance, Sanchez’s head jab differential is an underwhelming -6.2 P5M. Matthews’ is about even (+0.5). Sanchez’s power strike differential continues to disappoint at -6.7 (and -7.5 to the head). Matthews’ is +6.5 (and +7.0 to the head).

Matthews’ three knockdown metrics are all better than the welterweight average. Sanchez’s metrics are all close to zero. He hasn’t dropped anyone down since his flash knockdown of Gilbert Melendez that Big John McCarthy uses in referee training, and before that it was Clay Guida in the TUF 9 Finale back in 2009!

Sanchez gets his face busted up at twice the welterweight rate. Matthews bleeds at half the rate.

Sanchez completes only 4% of his distance takedowns while Matthews finishes 32%. But make no mistake, Sanchez is still legit in the clinch where he completes an outstanding 67% of his takedown attempts with higher than average volume. On the other hand, Matthews’ takedown defense is solid and he’s generally the one with top control when things end up on the ground (77% to Sanchez’s 60%).

Are the statistics saying there’s a chance? Hey, this is MMA. Every skilled fighter always has a chance. Sanchez just proved as much in his latest “win” over Michel Pereira.

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Bring on the glorious fights!

Statistical Notes: A bout closeness measure towards zero means a fighter tends to be in blowouts (win or lose) and towards 100 means they tend to be in very close fights. Strike attempts are per an entire five minute round in each position (P5M) and are categorized as jab or power. A jab is just a non-power strike. Strikes are documented based on where they land or are targeted (head, body, legs), not the type that is thrown (punch, elbow, kick, knee). Visible damage rate is per five minutes the fighter is not on his back. It’s hard to bust up someone’s face while lying on your back. Damage percentage is per power head strike and distance head jab landed. Knockdown rate is per five minutes at distance or in the clinch off the cage. Knockdown percentage is per power head strike landed while standing. It’s really hard to knock someone down if they’re already on the ground. Knockdown/Damage round percentage is the percentage of rounds with at least one knockdown or busted up face, respectively. Clinch control is having the opponent pressed against the cage. Ground control is having top position or the opponent’s back. Submission attempts are per five minutes of ground control minus time spent in the opponent’s guard plus time spent with the opponent in guard.

Paul writes about MMA analytics and officiating at Bloody Elbow and MMA business at Forbes. He’s also an ABC-certified referee and judge. Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.