Joe Silva…give me a call! Right now, the UFC’s Heavyweight division is as stacked as any other weight class in history including UFC’s Light Heavyweight and Welterweight juggernauts of yore. Zuffa’s Heavyweight class has it all: new age Heavyweight bohemoths like Lesnar, Carwin, Velasquez and Duffee; BJJ aces like Nogueira, Mir, Gonzaga, Struve and Nelson and feel good strikers like dos Santos, Kimbo, Mitrione, Buentello, Kongo, Barry, Cro Cop and Yvel.
With all the chaos and promise that is happening in the UFC’s heaviest weight class, I couldn’t help myself to analyze what the near and distant future holds. Here is a quick rundown of the scheduled and rumored upcoming Heavyweight contests, as well as my opinion on what late 2010 and 2011 holds.
UFC Heavyweight matchups that are scheduled or rumored:
Roy Nelson VS. Stefan Struve (UFC Fight Night 21)
This Heavyweight BJJ-fest is going down tomorrow (Wednesday) on the main card of UFC Fight Night 21. Nelson is the odds on favorite to win (-325/-350 range), which I believe he will. His jits and striking are both better than Struve’s, plus he has a serious experience edge. If Big Country can get past the gargantuan height and reach disparity, he should have little problem finishing the tallest Heavyweight in the UFC.
Kimbo Slice VS. Matt Mitrione (UFC 113)
Yes, this qualifies as a fight. First off, I was flabbergasted at the odds that came out for this fight. I got a bet in on Mitrione at +150 (!!!) a few months ago. Tell me if I’m wrong about this fight: Matt Mitrione, a guy who has an absolute iron chin, hits like a truck and got up from under Marcus Jones is taking on Kimbo Slice, a guy with a very questionable chin, decent boxing and an underdeveloped ground game. How does this fight end in any other way than a Mitrione KO?
Todd Duffee VS. Mike Russow (UFC 114)
Mike Russow was a pretty big Heavyweight prospect before he got signed by the UFC. In his 1 UFC fight, he decisioned Justin McCully. Unfortunately, he’s gotten a real rough draw here in Todd Duffee. Honestly, it wouldn’t matter if he decisioned Fedor…he’s going to get destroyed by Duffee. I only question how long it will take.
Mirko Filipovic VS. Pat Barry (UFC 115)
I like this better than Cro Cop/Rothwell. I would hope and expect this fight to stay upright with the better man winning, but God only knows. I still think Barry should drop to Light Heavyweight, but he’s been doing alright in the Heavyweight division going 2-1. That being said, I’m still not sold on Mirko being a guy who can beat a top 15 Heavyweight; Anthony Perosh was a last minute, gift matchup for him. Pat Barry should win this, but the line will probably come out with Cro Cop as a favorite (heads up for the shrewd bettors out there).
Ben Rothwell VS. Gilbert Yvel (UFC 115)
Both guys are simply looking to forget their last fight. I can’t really give ‘em too much grief about their recent UFC fights; a loss against Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos respectively is pretty understandable in retrospect. Both of these guys are competent strikers with Rothwell having the overpowering, brawler style and Yvel having the more refined striking. I honestly have no idea who takes this fight…not gonna lie. Both guys have a strong possibility to be the one cheering or the one sleeping.
Brock Lesnar VS. Shane Carwin (UFC 116)
Lesnar/Carwin at UFC 116 is going to happen barring any physical or bureaucratic interference. In a fight that will need Octagon reinforcement, Lesnar is in essence facing off against his mirror image. Both guys have relied on the same strengths to get to where they are now: gargantuan size, inhuman strength, unstoppable wrestling and one punch KO power. Lesnar is slightly bigger, slightly stronger and has better wrestling. Carwin has better striking technique, a better camp and more experience (as far as fights go, anyway). Who wins the undisputed belt? Probably Lesnar. I’ve seen Carwin go down, I haven’t seen Lesnar drop yet.
The future of the UFC Heavyweight division:
Brock Lesnar/Shane Carwin winner VS. Cain Velasquez
Instead of getting dos Santos/Velasquez (like most of us wanted), the UFC is going to shield their young guns from a non-title fight loss. Dana White recently came out and said dos Santos is next in line, and will wait for the winner of Lesnar/Carwin in July. Depending on how bloody and violent the Heavyweight clash ia at 116, this fight could very well take place on the marquee UFC card around Superbowl weekend. I’m not even going to speculate on who wins this fight because of all the variables, however I will assume both fighters are going to be in for an eventful night.
Junior dos Santos VS. Todd Duffee (if victorious)
Frank Mir VS. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira II
Brock Lesnar/Shane Carwin loser VS Frank Mir/Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira winner
Roy Nelson/Stefan Struve winner VS. Frank Mir/Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira loser
Kimbo Slice/Matt Mitrione winner VS. Mirko Filipovic/Pat Barry winner
Kimbo Slice/Matt Mitrione loser VS. James Toney
Mirko Filipovic/Pat Barry loser VS. Cheick Kongo
Ben Rothwell/Gilbert Yvel winner VS. Gabriel Gonzaga
Ben Rothwell/Gilbert Yvel loser VS. Paul Buentello