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Check out the Bloody Elbow staff’s picks and predictions for UFC 253.
The Bloody Elbow team has made its picks for UFC 253 in Abu Dhabi, and most of us believe that Israel Adesanya will remain the UFC middleweight champion by handing Paulo Costa his first career loss. As for the co-main event, many believe Dominick Reyes should’ve won the belt vs. Jon Jones, and everyone but Phil Mackenzie agrees that Reyes actually will get the title over Jan Blachowicz.
Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa
Anton Tabuena: Costa has power, so he has a chance, and I think his best shot is trying to pressure Adesanya and land a bomb as he circles away from the fence. Apart from that, I think Adesanya is just far better everywhere and should dominate in open space as he controls distance and picks him apart in the latter rounds. The decorated kickboxer has beaten much better and more technical strikers, with same or even more power, so Costa won’t really bring anything he hasn’t seen before. His aggressive game should play into Adesanya’s game very well, so unless Costa catches him big early, I think the champ will slowly pick him apart and finish him as he starts to slow in the latter rounds. Israel Adesanya by late TKO.
Mookie Alexander: This is really a case of power vs. methodical, technical striking. Costa can rip the body fiercely and he’s the faster, more powerful puncher. But he’s also got a massive reach disadvantage and his five-round cardio remains totally unproven. Adesanya may be in danger because he tends to be a bit too relaxed thinking other fighters can’t close the distance on him that easily, but what I foresee is Costa’s power dissipating as the fight progresses and Adesanya just countering the bejesus out of him until Costa is thoroughly beaten in a lopsided decision or TKO’d. Israel Adesanya by TKO, round 5.
Zane Simon: I’m not going to pretend I don’t see several paths to victory for Adesanya here. He could just be too elusive for Costa’s pressure, counter too well, have too much cardio. But, I really don’t think he’s going to handle the consistent multi-level attacking and power that Costa brings. It seemed pretty clear that fighting Romero shook Adesanya pretty thoroughly out of creating definitive offense. And while he beat Gastelum, he went through hell to do it, largely just because Gastelum was willing to stay on the front foot and throw consistent shots. If Costa does that (and I have to assume he will), I just don’t see a clear guarantee that Adesanya handles it better, or stands in and counters with confidence. There are a lot of ways this fight could go, but I’m picking Paulo Costa by 2nd or 3rd round KO.
Staff picking Adesanya: Phil, Dayne, Alex, Anton, Mookie
Staff picking Costa: Zane, Stephie
Dominick Reyes vs. Jan Blachowicz
Anton Tabuena: Blachowicz is strong and technical on the feet, but I just think Reyes will be far too quick and mobile for him to handle. I predict a successful first title defense for Reyes. Dominick Reyes by TKO.
Mookie Alexander: Reyes needs to pace himself. He basically cost himself the Jones fight (whether you like the decision or not) because he faded hare those last two rounds. If he can either improve his cardio or slightly drop his pace, his offense is too steady and varied for Blachowicz. Jan has that big right hand but Reyes is a vicious counterpuncher with devastating head kicks and I just think that Reyes is too good for Blachowicz. Then again, I’m really bad at picking Jan’s fights so ignore me or bet the opposite. Dominick Reyes by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Think Reyes is just too durable and works at too high a rate and is too dangerous from the same ranges that Blachowicz has most of his success. Can he really play a back foot jab and blitzing flurry game against someone as quick with the 1-2 and powerful with his own kicking game as Reyes is? I don’t see it. Feels like Reyes will wear him down and either take a clear decision or a late TKO. Dominick Reyes via TKO round 4.
Phil Mackenzie: The chances of Jan getting slept by a big Reyes counter are depressingly high. He does have a terrible habit of weird head-up blitzes against people who fight a mobile game, and Reyes is about the best counterpuncher in the division, and a southpaw who is difficult to jab against. That being said, Blachowicz is still one of the best jabbers in the division, has sort of fixed his cardio issues, and I just still don’t really trust Reyes entirely, as his only standup wins were a very contentious nip-tuck affair with Volkan, and that decision against Jones, who is just not a particularly good striker. Jan Blachowicz by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Reyes: Dayne, Alex, Zane, Stephie, Anton, Mookie
Staff picking Blachowicz: Phil
Kai Kara-France vs. Brandon Royval
Mookie Alexander: Kara-France is a volume kickboxer but he has to be careful he doesn’t get himself off-balance and right into Royval’s wheelhouse. Brandon is a sick grappler both on top and off of his back, so Kara-France shouldn’t even try to tempt fate. But Royval is still not a good enough striker and not a strong enough wrestler to really dictate this fight on his terms, so I’m backing City Kickboxing to have a big night. Kai Kara-France by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: If at any point Kara-France decides to force or chase Royval to the mat, he could easily and quickly find himself gettin tapped out. If he keeps this standing, however, and stays busy with his boxing, he’ll probably take a closer-than-necessary but still clear decision. I’m taking the decision route, since I think Royval doesn’t create clear enough paths to his own sub game. Kai Kara-France by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: The version of Kara-France that we saw last time out takes this quite handily, I think. He’s always been an accurate counterpuncher, but against Nam he upped his workrate, and created his openings. Royval is aggressive and a pretty mean finisher on the mat, but I’m just not sure how he gets it there if Kara-France stays light on his feet and maintains distance. Kai Kara-France by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Kara-France: Phil, Alex, Zane, Anton, Mookie
Staff picking Royval: Dayne, Stephie
Ketlen Vieira vs. Sijara Eubanks
Mookie Alexander: The big concern here is that Vieira is coming off a lengthy, injury-related layoff. Additionally, Eubanks may not be a knockout artist but she throws hard and could fluster Ketlen given she was brutally KO’d last time out. Apart from that, Vieira can outgrapple Eubanks and tire her out both in the clinch and on the ground. Ketlen Vieira by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Vieira’s just a little too determined on the counter, a little too strong a scrambler and consistent a grappler, and a little too big for me to trust that Eubanks can ride out another surprising win. I’m especially wary of how Avila had Eubanks covering up with hard shots early in their fight. If Vieira gets that kind of flurry going, I think she finishes the bout. Ketlen Vieira via TKO, round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: I can’t trust Sijara to win against someone who is a more aggressive and a better scrambling version of the fighter she lost to about 5 minutes ago. Ketlen Vieira by TKO, round 2.
Staff picking Vieira: Phil, Dayne, Zane, Stephie, Anton, Mookie
Staff picking Eubanks: Alex
Hakeem Dawodu vs. Zubaira Tukhugov
Zane Simon: Seeing a lot of parallels between this fight and Khama Worthy vs. Ottman Azaitar from the UFC card a couple weeks ago. Dawodu’s busy Muay Thai game can and should absolutely run Tukhugov out of the Octagon over three rounds. But the way he stands in the pocket early and takes his chances on finding perfect counters make me feel like an unnaturally fast and powerful wild striker like Tukhugov will just get a little too much to work with. It’s all Dawodu’s fight if it goes three rounds, but I’m taking Zubaira Tukhugov via TKO, round 1.
Mookie Alexander: This should be a fun fight. Someone should’ve told Tukhugov what weight class this fight was supposed to be, though. Hakeem Dawodu by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: The weird thing is that Tukhugov hasn’t really been that much of a huge finishing threat until he fought Aguilar- mostly he just tended to spin and gas himself out. That fight was eye-opening both from the relatively standard, high-percentage route Tukhugov took as well as him actually finishing Aguilar off. I still think I like Dawodu to not replicate the silly Henry mistake. Hakeem Dawodu by TKO, round 3.
Staff picking Dawodu: Phil, Dayne, Alex, Anton, Mookie
Staff picking Tukhugov: Zane, Stephie
Brad Riddell vs. Alex Da Silva
Mookie Alexander: This is going to be fun. I don’t see Da Silva as being able to take Riddell down and keep him there, so Brad gets to style on him with his striking. Brad Riddell by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: A bit of a step down for Riddell, and not an unjustified one. As Fiziev before him was able to take a bit of a showcase against Alex White, this should be Riddell’s chance to show off against a less athletic, somewhat unstructured striker. Da Silva is big and tall, and probably doesn’t fare well against Riddell’s love of throwing to the body in combination. Brad Riddell by TKO, round 2.
Staff picking Riddell: Phil, Dayne, Alex, Zane, Stephie, Mookie
Staff picking Da Silva:
Diego Sanchez vs. Jake Matthews
Anton Tabuena: Physically, Sanchez is significantly past his prime. The remaining skills he has also seems to be faltering and not put to good use due to horrible coaching and bizarre game plans. Sanchez should still be able to be competitive with youngsters with a proper team behind him, but I’m guessing this will again look weird and sad. Jake Matthews by Decision.
Mookie Alexander: Sadness. Jake Matthews by TKO, round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: Matthews has been pulled into ugly fights and drowned before, but if he loses this it looks very very bad. Jake Matthews by KO, round 1.
Staff picking Sanchez:
Staff picking Matthews: Phil, Dayne, Alex, Zane, Stephie, Anton, Mookie
Rest of the card
Ludovit Klein vs. Shane Young
Staff picking Klein: Alex, Zane, Stephie
Staff picking Young: Phil, Dayne, Anton, Mookie
Aleksa Camur vs. William Knight
Staff picking Camur: Dayne, Zane, Stephie, Anton, Mookie, Phil
Staff picking Knight: Alex
Juan Espino vs. Jeff Hughes
Staff picking Espino: Alex, Zane, Stephie, Anton, Mookie,Phil
Staff picking Hughes: Dayne
Khadis Ibragimov vs. Danilo Marques
Staff picking Ibragimov: Dayne, Alex, Zane, Stephie, Anton, Mookie, Phil
Staff picking Marques: