UFC 253 final betting odds: Israel Adesanya remains the bookmakers’ favorite

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Here are the final betting odds for UFC 253, where Israel Adesanya is favored to retain his middleweight title against Paulo Costa, and Dominick Reyes is projected to defeat Jan Blachow…

UFC 253 Adesanya v Costa: Weigh-Ins

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Here are the final betting odds for UFC 253, where Israel Adesanya is favored to retain his middleweight title against Paulo Costa, and Dominick Reyes is projected to defeat Jan Blachowicz to win the vacant 205-pound belt.

Its fight day ladies and gentlemen! UFC 253 takes flight tonight from Fight Island in Abu Dhabi, UAE with the promotion’s middleweight and vacant light heavyweight titles up for grabs in the main and co-main events. Capping off the night will be 185-pound champ, Israel Adesanya, looking to fend off an undefeated powerhouse in Paulo Costa. Before that, the UFC will crown a new 205-pound king when the #1 rated, Dominick Reyes, collides with the #3 ranked, Jan Blachowicz. Bloody Elbow is here to help steward you through the betting lines for these high-stakes championship bouts, as well as the rest of the UFC 253 fight card.

The oddsmakers and gambling public alike are banking on Israel Adesanya to successfully defend his middleweight belt against Paulo Costa. Adesanya’s UFC 253 opening moneyline dropped with a minus line of -135, and then after some action in his direction, drifted out further to its current mark of -178. As for the challenger, Costa went from an initial offering of +105, to a much more lucrative underdog value of +167.

We’ve got two undefeated and highly skilled athletes at the top of their games going heads up. That sounds more like a 50-50 fight if there ever was one. What could be the reason for this betting line favoring Adesanya the way it does now? Could it be the belt slap? Could it be popularity? Or could it be the champion getting his respect for being more battle tested against better competition, and for already proving his worth in the championship rounds?

I’m sure being the champ and being more popular gets him a few, okay maybe more than a few, surface wagers thrown his way — but quite frankly there are just fewer question marks when it comes to Adesanya than there are with Costa. That makes the initial offering for these fighters seem spot on. It’s a close fight, but Adesanya has shown us more up until this point. As the gamblers continue to side with the champ, though, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to not give Costa a look as his moneyline trends towards +200.

Let’s take a look at some of the props for this 185-pound title fight:

The over/under for this 25-minute affair has been set at 2.5 rounds.

  • ‘Over 2.5’ (-147)
  • ‘Under 2.5’ (-132)

According to the odds, this bout will be decided inside of the distance.

  • ‘Fight doesn’t go to decision’ (-210)
  • ‘Fight goes to decision’ (+168)

The betting lines reflect Adesanya being more likely than Costa to achieve a knockout.

  • ‘Adesanya wins by TKO/KO’ (+155)
  • ‘Costa wins by TKO/KO’ (+280)

The UFC 253 co-main event appears to be a little more cut and dry than the main event. The odds are labeling Dominick Reyes as a -245 betting favorite to the +225 Jan Blachowicz. Many people believe that Dominick Reyes actually defeated Jon Jones in their UFC 247 encounter, but was robbed of being crowned champion. Blachowicz is tough, quite skilled, and hits tremendously hard, but he will be the inferior athlete out there tonight. At 205-pounds, being the best athlete in the cage counts maybe more than it does in any other division. This betting line seem appropriate.

Let’s take a look at some of the exotic bets for this vacant light heavyweight championship bout:

The over/under for this five-round scuffle has been set at 2.5 rounds.

  • ‘Over 2.5’ (-127)
  • ‘Under 2.5’ (+112)

The betting lines are in favor of this one ending early.

  • ‘Fight doesn’t go to decision’ (-225)
  • ‘Fight goes to decision’ (+175)

Reyes has been pegged as much more likely than Blachowicz to score a finish by way of knockout.

  • ‘Reyes wins by TKO/KO’ (+125)
  • ‘Blachowicz wins by TKO/KO’ (+450)

Check out the UFC 253 betting odds, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com:


For an in-depth breakdown of each UFC 253 matchup, check out The MMA Vivisection with Bloody Elbow’s own Zane Simon and Connor Ruebusch. Be sure to subscribe to our YouTube channel to stay up to date with all of our live video content. Stay glued to Bloody Elbow for all of your event coverage including play-by-play, results, highlights, and more! Happy hunting!