UFC Fight Night 21 – Florian VS. Gomi takes place tonight in North Carolina. The main event features the UFC debut on an MMA legend, as Takanori Gomi takes on former UFC Lightweight title contender Kenny Florian. That Lightweight fight could very well determine who gets the next shot at BJ Penn. The co-main event will feature TUF winner Roy Nelson against BJJ ace and the tallest UFC Heavyweight Stefan Struve.
There isn’t a ton of value on this card, both main events are pretty lopsided. Judging by the Pros’ Picks, only two fights on this card are remotely competitive. I tend to agree in large part, but I do have an upset or two in mind.
As always, these picks are the opinion of one man. Follow my betting advice with discretion and only wager as much as you feel comfortable losing. I will only be writing predictions and betting analysis for those bouts in which I believe have betting value. If you want more information on the card in its entirety, check out MMAMoneyLine’s “Pros’ Picks” for UFC Fight Night 21. Without further adieu, here are MMAMoneyLine’s official picks and betting analysis for UFC Fight Night 21 – Florian VS. Gomi.
Gerald Harris VS. Mario Miranda
Judging by the line movement, a Mario Miranda pick seems to be the cool thing to do. It is definitely understandable; Miranda is a pretty hyped up prospect. I’ve even heard the dreaded “next Anderson Silva” thrown around (although thats almost like a jinx these days). I agree that Miranda is a solid pick at his current odds and this is why:
Gerald Harris has a sound wrestling pedigree, but his stand up will be his best friend in this fight. The TUF alum will have the most success trading with the Brazilian. Harris wants nothing to do with Miranda on the mat, especially if Harris is on his back.
However, Miranda has proven to be improving his whole MMA game, not just his grappling. He is undefeated with KO and submission wins on his record. He has also faced UFC caliber fighters like Rick Story and Joe Vedepo, so he’s no stranger to this level of competition. I doubt the Octagon jitters will have much of an effect on Miranda, and I see this fight eventually hitting the mat. When it does, Miranda will finish Harris and perhaps even earn himself a bonus.
My pick: Mario Miranda via SUB (rear naked choke) in the 2nd
Betting play: Even though Miranda’s odds have become less favorable as of late, he’s still an underdog on all cards. Since MMAMoneyLine sees Miranda as the favorite, bettors have the edge here. Getting Miranda at +130 on BetUS is recommended.
Nik Lentz VS. Rob Emerson
In a fight that has “prelims” written all over it, Nik Lentz will look to use his wrestling against the sharp striking of Rob Emerson. Emerson, a product of The Ultimate Fighter, has been constantly improving since we saw him on the show. He had a sound striking base to begin with, but has really refined his stand up and improved his takedown defense and defensive grappling in general. “The Saint” is very tough to finish, with only one loss coming via submission against Kurt Pellegrino. This is even more impressive considering the caliber of fighter he’s faced throughout his career (Manny Gamburyan, Javier Vazquez, Jens Pulver, Melvin Guillard etc.)
Lentz has gone a surprising 1-0-1 in his two fights under the UFC banner, both fights in which he was a sizeable underdog. “The Carnie” has solid, Minnesota-bred wrestling and good power. However, his stand up is far from technical and if he can’t get Emerson to the ground he could be in trouble.
Emerson’s striking is simply on another level than that of Lentz. In addition, Emerson’s improving takedown defense is going to really hamper Lentz’s primary objective. If Lentz is able to take Emerson down, a finish is unlikely judging by Emerson’s record and formidable defensive grappling. The only way I see Lentz coming out of this fight a winner is if he can secure three takedowns and grind his way to victory. That prospect is pretty dim when you are against a high caliber striker who has capable takedown defense (not to mention referee’s tendencies to stand fighters up). I’m going with the striking and experience here.
My pick: Rob Emerson via unanimous decision
Betting play: I was surprised to see Emerson as the dog here. I don’t know where Lentz is getting this momentum, but a sloppy win and draw don’t do it for me. Emerson’s best odds are +140 at Bodog, a line which MMAMoneyLine recommends you take advantage of.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Florian/SUB/3
Nelson/TKO/3
Quarry/KO/1
Pearson/SD
Okami/UD
Tibau/UD
High/SD
Miranda/SUB/2
Winner/KO/1
Emerson/UD
Torres/SUB/2
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
Miranda – .5 u. at +130 on BetUS
Emerson – .5 u at +140 on Bodog