Get a detailed breakdown of the betting lines for UFC 265, which is set to hit Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, this weekend (Sat., Aug. 7, 2021), including best bets, underdogs, favorites and much more!
Technical mastery and raw horsepower collide in a bid for gold this Saturday (Aug. 7, 2021) when Ciryl Gane takes on Derrick Lewis for the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) interim Heavyweight title in Houston, Texas. UFC 265 also features a Bantamweight crossroads match between Jose Aldo and Pedro Munhoz, as well as Michael Chiesa’s latest Welterweight bout against division boogeyman Vicente Luque.
Enjoying UFC 265’s pay-per-view (PPV) main card will cost you, though, so let’s go ahead and get you all reimbursed …
What Went Wrong at UFC Vegas 33?
Everything, basically. Rafa Garcia’s previously solid gas tank gave out against Chris Gruetzemacher, Bryan Barberena’s wrestling issues came back to bite him against Jason Witt and Orion Cosce let Philip Rowe back into the fight after a strong first round. Adrian Yanez and Zarrukh Adashev performed, but poor parlay management on my part turned the event into a complete dud.
UFC 265 Odds For The Under Card:
Rafael Fiziev (-280) vs. Bobby Green (+240)
Drako Rodriguez (-115) vs. Vince Morales (-105)
Alonzo Menifield (-240) vs. Ed Herman (+200)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-122) vs. Jessica Penne (+102)
Manel Kape (-185) vs. Ode Osbourne (+160)
Miles Johns (-210) vs. Anderson Dos Santos (+175)
Melissa Gatto (-110) vs. Victoria Leonardo (-110)
Johnny Munoz Jr. (-255) vs. Jamey Simmons (+215)
Thoughts: Miles Johns is as tempting as the last time these two signed to fight, and there’s value to be found in Jessica Penne, Alonzo Menifield and Johnny Munoz Jr.
My argument for “Chapo” is the same as before: tighter boxing and a superior wrestling game. So long as he stays active and doesn’t let “Berinja” lead the dance, he can win this fight with little more than a sharp jab and the occasional double-leg.
He’s worth an investment, at least.
In terms of “what have you done for me lately,” Penne has Karolina Kowalkiewicz beat by a country mile. The Polish contender has dropped four straight and has been out since Feb. 2020, when she got wrestled to death by a non-wrestler in Yan Xiaonan. Penne’s grappling success against a very capable fighter in Lupita Godinez makes her worth a look as an underdog, especially if you parlay her with someone like Rafael Fiziev for juicy odds.
Nobody can deny that Ed Herman is a genuine badass. He is, however, a 40-year-old badass who needed all-time-bad refereeing to defeat the extremely limited Mike Rodriguez last time out. Menifield’s younger, faster, ostensibly bigger and punches a fair bit harder than Herman, which is enough to get him my vote of confidence
All Jamey Simmons really has going for him is solid wrestling, which is absolutely not the right way to go about fighting a world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist like Johnny Munoz Jr. This just seems like a toxic match up for “The Afro Samurai,” and while Munoz definitely slowed down late in his UFC debut loss to Nate Maness, Simmons’ cardio is every bit as suspect.
In short, bank on Munoz.
UFC 265 Odds For The Main Card:
Cyril Gane (-370) vs. Derrick Lewis (+310)
Jose Aldo (-110) vs. Pedro Munhoz (-110)
Michael Chiesa (-110) vs. Vicente Luque (-110)
Tecia Torres (-135) vs. Angela Hill (+115)
Casey Kenney (-122) vs. Song Yadong (+105)
Thoughts: I was ready to write off Tecia Torres after her four-fight losing streak, but it’s easy to forget that three of the women who beat her were former/future champions and the fourth, Marina Rodriguez, is an excellent striker with huge height and reach advantages. She’s looked like the “Tiny Tornado” of old in her last two fights and looks to have considerable advantages in speed and versatility against Hill. While I do think Hill was on the wrong end of wonky decisions against Claudia Gadelha and Michelle Waterson, the style match up is all Torres.
Casey Kenney could be worth a look as well. Losing to a killer like Kyler Phillips doesn’t make Song Yadong a bust, but the wrestling issues he showed against “Matrix” and previous foe Marlon Vera bode ill against a top-notch ground specialist like Kenney, especially considering how potent and durable Kenney is on the feet.
Kenney definitely strikes me as undervalued.
Gane’s been very good to me in these posts, so even with those odds, it would be rude of me to ignore his moment of triumph. He’s going to do exactly what he did to Jairzinho Rozenstruik: pick apart Lewis at range, keep himself out of danger, and ignore the booing to claim the interim title.
Slap “Bon Gamin” in a parlay and enjoy!
UFC 265 Best Bets:
- Parlay — Miles Johns and Tecia Tores: Bet $150 to make $235.50
- Parlay — Johnny Munoz Jr. and Casey Kenney: Bet $120 to make $183.60
- Parlay — Jessica Penne and Rafael Fiziev: Bet $100 to make $174
- Parlay — Alonzo Menifield and Ciryl Gane: Bet $125 to make $100
Even without Nunes vs. Pena, UFC 265’s PPV main card looks poised to produce fireworks. See you Saturday, Maniacs.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 265 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, then the remaining undercard balance on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, before the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC 265: “Lewis vs. Gane” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.