Main Card
DAN HENDERSON VS JAKE SHIELDS
The main card features newly acquired UFC fighter, Dan Henderson vs the middle weight champion Jake Shields. An interesting talking point is that this fight is being fought at a disadvantageous weight for Shields and an advantage for Dan Henderson. So its technically not a middleweight fight, but its for the middleweight belt. Its also Shields last fight on his contract. Also Dana White has been vocal about acquiring Jake Shields to the UFC. Moreover, Jake Shields can be seen on the latest Ultimate Fighter series as one of Chuck Lidell’s assistant coaches.
This ingredient list makes for a very nice play on Henderson. The odds likely won’t be too in favor of one or the other. The likelihood of Dan Henderson winning, imo, is high just based on the mental aspect and Shields head is probably not going to be in this fight. Expect Dana White to be calling Shields right after the fight.
My pick is Henderson to win.
GEGARD MOUSASI VS MUHAMMED “KING MO” LAWAL
This is going to be a great fight. Two reasons: Gegard has been tearing people up and so has King Mo. Mo is a wrestler with ground and pound and bomb throwing standup, while Mousasi is a K-1 level striker who has taken out the likes of Jacare, Denis Kang, Renato Sobral, Melvin Manhoef, Gary Goodridge, & Sokoudjou.
If you look at the ways these two guys can win, you have to give the edge to Mousasi. Lawal will give anyone trouble with his speed. However, the technique outside of his wrestling ability is subpar. The experience edge definitely goes to Mousasi.
At -250 I like Mousasi. Expect Mousasi to be fighting off his back though much more than we have seen him lately.
GILBERT MELENDEZ VS SHINYA AOKI
Gilbert Melendez is kind of like Lawal in that he is a great wrestler with a huge gas tank and will just wear you down and beat you up. Aoki though is a surgeon. He will be looking for submissions the whole time. Gilbert’s game plays into Aoki’s hands, however, Melendez trains with some top notch jiu-jitsu guys so I’m not sure Aoki is going to be able to catch Melendez. The oddsmakers see it this way as well and have Melendez as a -155 favorite.
My best estimate is that this fight goes the distance and Melendez wins via decision because he will be the busier and more damaging fighter. I would love to see Aoki pull off the sub, but its not likely to happen.
Melendez will win.
Undercard
JASON MILLER VS TIM STOUT
Miller is way favored here. Don’t touch it, but Miller will win.
CHRIS HAWK VS OVINCE ST. PREAUX
DUSTIN WEST VS ANDY UHRICH
JOSH SHOCKMAN VS CALE YARBROUGH
ZACH UNDERWOOD VS HUNTER WORSHAM
DUSTIN ORTIZ VS JUSTIN PENNINGTON
CODY FLOYD VS THOMAS CAMPBELL