UFC Light Heavyweight bout: Mauricio Rua vs. Forrest Griffin
Odds: (-280 Rua /+220 Griffin )
Betting Pick: Rua
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The semi-main event is a highly anticipated rematch between former Light Heavyweight champions Forrest Griffin and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. The first time these two met, Griffin shocked the world by controlling a large portion of the action and eventually forcing Shogun to submit to a rear naked choke. Shogun has looked more like his old self since then, despite a loss to Jon Jones in his last outing. This has all the makings of a very competitive bout, pitting Shogun’s dominant striking against Griffin’s well-rounded and underrated game.
Forrest Griffin is a huge success story, having parlayed a spot on the original season of The Ultimate Fighter all the way to a reign as Light Heavyweight champion. What is spectacular about Griffin is that, on paper, he doesn’t seem to have that impressive a skill set. His boxing is solid but not hugely powerful and his wrestling is solid but hardly world-class. Griffin has carved out his success through sheer will. Griffin has a ton of heart, great cardio, and a fairly solid chin. He also has a very underrated ground game, with relatively effective submissions and good positioning. Griffin can’t take a fight over with his offense consistently, but he can compete anywhere a fight goes and he never stops coming forward, which makes him an extremely dangerous opponent.
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua has been one of the most dominant Light Heavyweights in the world for years. His striking is superlative, with very powerful boxing, dangerous kicks, and crushing Muay Thai in the clinch. On the ground, he has good submissions, but his takedown defense is not very good and he is not very effective working off his back. Against Griffin he is going to want to try and keep this fight standing, because Griffin always submitted him once and is the larger and stronger fighter.
This is a tough match to call. There is no question that Shogun is the superior striker, with better technique and more knockout power. Griffin is the better wrestler, and showed in their last fight that he can take Shogun down and control him on the ground. In the end, though, I think Shogun will even the score with Griffin. Griffin likes to stand and trade, and tends to throw caution to the wind, and I don’t think he has enough offense to stop an injury-free Shogun. I think Shogun will handily win the striking exchanges and do enough to earn a unanimous decision win.
Prediction: Mauricio “Shogun” Rua via Unanimous Decision.
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