Filed under: Strikeforce
The Strikeforce heavyweight Grand Prix takes another step forward on Saturday night, and there are no shortage or questions, concerns and predictions to go along with it. Here are just a few of them.
I. It’s hard to remember a better overall card with less buzz surrounding it. Walking around the Cincinnati area this week, you can’t tell there’s a major fight on Saturday night. The weigh-in was sparsely attended, as was the press conference, and the UFC seems like it can’t be bothered to throw much promotional power Strikeforce’s way. It’s as if the whole Grand Prix business is just an awkward hand that Zuffa is going to reluctantly play out, and the sooner it’s over the better. That’s a shame since, when you really look at this lineup, there are some great match-ups on tap. Even the prelims are solid, which is a true rarity for a Strikeforce event. You just wonder if anybody’s going to be around to hear this tree falling in the forest.
II. Josh Barnett has to be considered the overall favorite to win the Grand Prix at this point. Oddsmakers put him at around 3-1 to beat Kharitonov, and if he gets past the Russian you have to think he’d be similarly favored over whoever comes out of the Silva-Cormier tilt. With Overeem’s departure, it’s almost as if the universe is conspiring to make Barnett the GP winner, thus forcing Dana White to make some difficult decisions about whether he can do business with the man he’s blasted in the past. As long as he passes the drug tests, Barnett can sell a fight like nobody’s business, and we know White likes that. If he also proves his skills by winning the tournament, the UFC will almost have to come to terms with him. Plus, when there’s money to be made, White’s been known to bury the hatchet in a hurry.
III. Luke Rockhold hasn’t fought in almost nineteen months. Two things about that: 1) I’m not sure I’d want to have the biggest fight of my career right after the longest layoff of my career, and 2) what does it say about the Strikeforce middleweight division that a guy can essentially wait his way into a title shot? “Jacare” Souza already dispatched Robbie Lawler and won a close decision over Tim Kennedy, so fresh challengers are in short supply. If that’s not a division that could benefit from a UFC merger, I don’t know what is.
IV. To takedown or not to takedown? That’s the question for Mo Lawal. He has such an interesting and, for the most part, effective striking style that’s based heavily on the threat of the takedown. But you have to think that Roger Gracie wouldn’t mind having the fight on the mat. You also have to think that, unless he’s kidding himself, he knows he’s probably not going to pull off a double-leg on Lawal. That means his best chance to put his jiu-jitsu to work could come after giving up a takedown and either sweeping Lawal or looking for a submission off his back. That’s a risky game to play. If it goes the distance, judges almost always side with the guy who was in top position for most of the fight. But then, maybe Lawal thinks his stand-up is good enough that he doesn’t even need to give Gracie a chance to work some submission magic. It would involve giving up the most effective part of his game — wrestling — but it might be the safer path.
V. Is Josh Barnett vs. Sergei Kharitonov the whitest heavyweight main event in modern MMA history? I don’t just mean white as in Caucasian — we’ve had plenty of those. I mean pale. When Barnett and Kharitonov take their shirts off, you’re looking at a couple of seriously pasty dudes, even at the end of the summer. Guess they were too busy in the gym to get out and get a tan. That, or maybe they both burn easily. I can sympathize.
VI. Can Mike Kyle keep it together? He’s had his problems with playing by the rules in the past, and at Friday’s weigh-in he instigated an intense and prolonged staredown with Marcos Rogerio de Lima. Something about him just seems as if it’s ready to snap, which is maybe where he feels like he needs to be on fight week. He just can’t snap in the wrong ways. With the Zuffa overlords taking a hard look at the Strikeforce roster, now is not the time to screw up.
VII. One way or another, Daniel Cormier is about to learn something about his future. He’s 5’11 and 247 pounds with his jeans and belt buckle on, making him the smallest heavyweight left in the tournament. Some say he should cut to light heavyweight, while others say he’d kill himself if he tried, but it remains to be seen whether he can give up that much size and still compete with some of the elite monsters in the division. That’s why a fight with the 6’4″ Silva should make for an interesting test. He’s got fists the size of Cormier’s skull, and he has to cut weight to make the 265-pound limit. Then again, he’s not as athletic or as quick as Cormier, so maybe agility can win out over sheer size and strength. It’s a big step up for a guy who has fewer than ten pro fights, but it’s time. Cormier’s not getting any younger. He might as well find out now if he can hang with the big boys.
VIII. Can someone please explain how Rafael Cavalcante vs. Yoel Romero ended up on the prelims? I’m sure the fine people at HDNet are glad to have this fight bolstering the undercard broadcast, but “Feijao” was the champ just six months ago, and Romero is a major prospect. Sticking those two on the prelims and putting Pat Healy vs. Maximo Blanco on the main card just doesn’t make a ton of sense to me. Who knows, maybe the Showtime execs are hoping that a lot of the people watching the Paul McCartney lead-in will be huge Healy fans.
IX. We may not know what’s at stake for the winner of the Grand Prix, but it sure seems like nothing good happens to the losers. Of the four men who lost in the quarterfinal round, one was cut right away, one was cut after being arrested for domestic violence, one was cut after losing a subsequent fight, and one remains on the roster. That’s not necessarily proof that nothing but misery and woe awaits everyone but the Grand Prix winner, but it’s also not terribly encouraging.
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