Get a detailed breakdown of the betting lines for UFC 283, which is set to hit Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, this weekend (Sat., Jan. 21, 2023), including best bets, underdogs, favorites and much more!
A championship double feature heralds UFC’s return to pay-per-view (PPV) this Saturday (Jan. 21, 2023) when Glover Teixeira battles Jamahal Hill for the Light Heavyweight belt and Deiveson Figueiredo continues his epic rivalry against Brandon Moreno with Flyweight gold on the line. UFC 283, which will take place inside Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, will also showcase Gilbert Burns vs. Neil Magny, Jessica Andrade vs. Lauren Murphy, and a potentially insane battle pitting Paul Craig vs. Johnny Walker.
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What Went Wrong at UFC Vegas 67?
Allan Nascimento and Abdul Razak Alhassan
Decisive finishes are good for my stress levels. I feel like Alhassan could have done that a lot earlier, but a win’s a win.
Raquel Pennington
God, that was a lucky break. She lost on my card, initially because of her difficulties with Vieira’s reach and later due to some unexpected trouble controlling the clinch. As the wise men say, though, we take those.
Damon Jackson
Man, I think this one was over within the first 20 seconds. He got right in Ige’s face and started mugging, but after getting stunned by an overhand right, he spent the rest of the fight terrified to consistently engage or bring his wrestling to bear. Props to Ige’s power and a shake of the head at Jackson’s refusal to do the one thing he needed to do to win.
Raoni Barcelos
Huh, guess Nurmagomedov deserved those insanely lopsided odds after all. In my defense, I don’t think anyone in the universe saw that coming.
UFC 283 Odds For The Under Card:
- Ihor Potieria (-200) vs. Mauricio Rua (+170)
This is a “bet the pain away” fight. The only thing Rua has left is functional wrestling, and while Potieria isn’t particularly adept at keeping things on the feet, his youth and athleticism look sufficient to bridge the gap. With that learning experience against Negumereanu behind him, Potieria should bust him up without too much issue, and a bit of profit should help dampen the heartache of watching “Shogun” get manhandled by a guy he would have beaten easily if he was 20 years younger.
- Gregory Rodrigues (-330) vs. Bruno Ferreira (+275)
I refuse to get off the “Robocop” train. Even if the man insists on slugging it out when leaning on his BJJ credentials would make things a million percent easier, he’s a terror, and he should beat down a physically impressive but technically iffy bruiser like Ferreira. Rodrigues outclasses him on the mat and boasts a more technically sound striking game, so it’s his fight to lose.
- Thiago Moises (-340) vs. Melquizael Costa (+280)
Little wider than I’d like, but still worth investing in Moises. He’s been pitted against ridiculously tough competition, which can make it difficult to see his genuine skills. While he’ll probably be at a slight deficit on the feet thanks to Costa’s kicking prowess, his ground game is more than enough to make up for it, especially since Costa often relies more on scrambling to his feet than on stopping takedowns in the first place.
- Gabriel Bonfim (-175) vs. Mounir Lazzez (+150)
I actually like Lazzez as the underdog here. Bonfim dazzled me with his speed and combination punching, but recent fights have shown a worrying lack of head movement and some issues with rangier opponents. Lazzez will enjoy a comfortable reach advantage and ostensibly has the skills to use it, so while Bonfim is an offensive beast with some wrestling in his back pocket, I’m willing to invest a bit in “The Sniper.”
- Jailton Almeida (-950) vs. Shamil Abdurakhimov (+650)
These are the sorts of odds you’d get during Ronda Rousey’s heyday, though I can’t really blame them. Almeida’s “instant takedown to instant submission” approach has worked a treat against admittedly limited UFC big men. A prime Abdurakhimov would have been a threat thanks to his deceptively sharp hands, but the old, rusty, damaged version of today will get put through the wringer. Slap Almeida in a parlay if you’re desperate for a few extra cents on your return.
- Cody Stamann (-340) vs. Luan Lacerda (+280)
You could rightly criticize me for taking the easy way out and banking on the big favorites in this lineup, but when half of the undercard bouts feature someone over -300, you gotta take what you can get. Lacerda’s too limited a wrestler to bring his impeccable jiu-jitsu to bear against Stamann, who should outclass him on the feet in drama-free fashion. Worth a look.
- Terrance McKinney (-125) vs. Ismael Bonfim (+105)
I’m leaning towards McKinney, but Bonfim’s got great boxing and takedown defense that make it too close to call.
- Warlley Alves (-120) vs. Nicolas Dalby (EVEN)
Either Alves bulldozes Dalby in the opening minutes, as the Dane takes at least a full round to warm up in almost every fight, or Dalby survives and takes over once Alves’ customary implosion begins. I expect shenanigans, which are usually bad for your profit margins. Stay away.
- Josiane Nunes (-520) vs. Zarah Fairn (+410)
Fairn can actually strike a bit and will have a lot of height and reach on Nunes, so “Josi” isn’t worth investing in at such lopsided odds, but Fairn also has a ton of baggage that makes her unappealing as an underdog. Best skipped.
- Saimon Oliveira (-155) vs. Daniel Marcos (+135)
I like Oliveira here. While they’re very similar stylistically, Oliveira’s faced much tougher competition and won’t have to deal with the sustained wrestling attack that tripped him up against Tony Gravely. Plus, Marcos faded badly on the Contender Series, so Oliveira should take increasing control of the fight in the later rounds.
UFC 283 Odds For The Main Card:
- Jamahal Hill (-125) vs. Glover Teixeira (+105)
Teixeira as the underdog almost worked last time, so surely it’ll work this time. Takedown defense has long been one of Hill’s bugbears, from the six he gave up to Darko Stosic in his UFC debut to the six he gave up to Thiago Santos last time out. Neither of those men were half the grappler Teixeira is, and considering the ridiculous heart and toughness that the Brazilian has shown of late, odds are he’ll get Hill down sooner or later and end it from there.
- Brandon Moreno (-115) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (-105)
Not seeing a lot of value here. They’re as evenly matched as they come and you can’t get positive odds either way, so leave this one alone.
- Gilbert Burns (-435) vs. Neil Magny (+350)
Magny’s flipped too many scripts for me to touch this one.
- Jessica Andrade (-475) vs. Lauren Murphy (+380)
It’s unclear to me how Murphy is supposed to win this one. Andrade’s by far the heavier hitter and her sheer strength should prevent Murphy from grinding her out. You need to squeeze a bit more blood out of a stone, slap “Bate Estaca” in there.
- Johnny Walker (-190) vs. Paul Craig (+160)
Nope, not touching a fight between these ridiculous boom-or-bust artists.
UFC 283 Best Bets:
- Parlay — Ihor Poteiria and Gregory Rodrigues: Bet $63 to make $60
- Parlay — Jessica Andrade and Saimon Oliveira: Bet $60.60 to make $60
- Single bet — Mounir Lazzez: Bet $40 to make $60
- Single bet — Glover Teixeira: Bet $60 to make $63
- Parlay — Thiago Moises, Cody Stamann and Jailton Almeida: Bet $59 to make $50
I’ve a feeling that UFC 283 is going to be one to remember in one way or another. See you Saturday, Maniacs.
Initial Investment For 2023: $600
Current Total: $677
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 283 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, then the remaining undercard on ABC/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, before the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.
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