UFC Lightweight Championship bout: Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard
Odds: (-140 Edgar /+110 Maynard )
Betting Pick: Maynard
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The main event of the evening features the third meeting between top contender Gray Maynard and Lightweight champion Frankie “The Answer” Edgar. Maynard manhandled Edgar in their first bout, but with the title on the line he was unable to finish what he started and walked away with a draw. Maynard came out of the gate hard last time, and looked ready to end Edgar in the first round, but was unable to close the deal and allowed Edgar to move and jab his way back into the fight. If Edgar wants to keep his title, he can’t let Maynard dominate him early like he did last time, because I highly doubt Maynard will fail to finish this time. The key for Maynard is trying to play to his strengths as much as possible, using his wrestling to take away Edgar’s superior footwork and movement. Either way, with two guys of this caliber who know each other this well, this is sure to be an extremely competitive Main Event.
Gray “The Bully” Maynard is the clear-cut top contender at 155 pounds. Still undefeated as a professional, Maynard gave Edgar all he could handle in their last fight, and already holds a previous win over the champion as well. Maynard is a pretty solid boxer with heavy hands, but his best tool is clearly his wrestling. His takedowns are dominant, and he is excellent at holding opponents down and battering them from the top. Maynard has shown twice now that when he can get his takedown game going, he has the tools to utterly dominate Edgar, and he is also the more powerful puncher of the two. What he has to avoid is getting into a pure boxing match, though, where Edgar’s superior speed, movement, and footwork will confound him. Maynard needs to fight aggressively and turn this into a brawl, where he will have all the advantages, instead of allowing Edgar to get comfortable and start dictating the pace.
Frankie “The Answer” Edgar is an extremely versatile and effective fighter who is well deserving of his Lightweight title. Maynard’s only professional loss was in his first fight against Maynard, but he showed that he has changed in a fighter when they met last time. Edgar was in a huge amount of trouble early after being rocked by a Maynard power punch, and looked close to being finished. Despite that inauspicious start to the fight, Edgar battled back and used his superior footwork and flawless technique to confound Maynard throughout the later rounds. If Edgar wants to avenge his only loss and retain his championship belt, he has to keep Maynard guessing, using his superior footwork to be evasive and set up his jab, which is quite effective.
Maynard clearly won their first fight, a lot of people felt like he won the second one, and he should win this one as well. Edgar is clearly the quicker of the two and the slicker striker, but Maynard hits a lot harder and is a better wrestler. Obviously Edgar can stick and move and score points, but Maynard is the one with all the fight-ending potential, both standing and on the ground. I don’t see him making the same mistake he made last time. Expect him to come out aggressive, using power punches to keep Edgar guessing while setting up his takedowns, and eventually just overwhelming Edgar with takedowns and physicality, working him over on the ground for the T/KO stoppage.
Prediction: Gray Maynard via fourth round T/KO.
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