Boxing fans will enjoy a virtually unprecedented sight tonight (Sat., Sept. 30, 2023) when undisputed Super Welterweight champion, Jermell Charlo, moves up two weight classes to challenge undisputed Super Middleweight titlist, Canelo Alvarez, in Las Vegas, Nevada.

MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE coverage of the “Canelo vs. Charlo”-led pay-per-view (PPV) main card right here. FITE.tv’s PPV main card broadcast kicks off on Showtime/FITE.tv at 8 p.m. ET, while Canelo and Charlo are expected to make their ring walks around 11 p.m. ET (watch it here).

The impressively deep main card also sees top prospect Jesus Ramos Jr. face his toughest test to date in dangerous vet Erickson Lubin, former Welterweight roost-ruler, Yordenis Ugas, take on Mario Barrios for interim gold, and Elijah Garcia meets Armando Resendiz in a clash of Middleweight young guns.

All eyes are on the main event, including ours. Let’s see what we can find out …

Photo by Hector Vivas/Getty Images

Saul “Canelo” Alvarez
Age: 33
Record: 59-2-2 (39 KO)
Last Five Fights: John Ryder (UD), Gennadiy Golovkin (UD), Dmitry Bivol (UD Loss), Caleb Plant (TKO-11), Billy Joe Saunders (RTD-8)
Significant Victories (other than those mentioned above): Callum Smith, Sergey Kovalev, Daniel Jacobs, Liam Smith, Amir Khan, Miguel Cotto, Erislandy Lara, Austin Trout

VS.

Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images

Jermell Charlo

Age: 33
Record: 35-1-1 (19 KO)
Last Five Fights: Brian Castano (KO-10), Brian Castano (Split Draw), Jeison Rosario (KO-8), Tony Harrison (KO-11), Jorge Cota (KO-3)
Significant Victories (other than those mentioned above): Austin Trout, Erickson Lubin, Charles Hatley, Vanes Martirosyan, Gabriel Rosado

THE FIGHT

At this point, it’s safe to say that Canelo Alvarez is slowing down. His inability to keep his foot on the gas allowed a badly faded Gennadiy Golovkin to come within a round of forcing a draw, and though the scorecards weren’t remotely close against John Ryder, “The Gorilla” still had quite a bit more success down the stretch than he should have. I’m quite confident that the Super Middleweight division’s elephant in the room, David Benavidez, would overpower the current version of Canelo.

Charlo, though? I’m not sold.

A phenomenal fighter he may be, but Charlo is no stranger to struggling in fights. Both of his battles with Tony Harrison were close on the scorecards before Charlo stopped him in the rematch and virtually every observer save for two ringside judges had him losing to Brian Castano the first time around. The Castano fight is especially troubling for his chances here, as the Argentine slugger successfully employed the seek-and-destroy gameplan that is Canelo’s bread and butter.

That said, Castano is a higher-volume and more technical infighter than Canelo, by which I mean he does a better job of setting up his power shots with combinations and minimizing damage while maintaining pressure. It would be reductive to say Canelo will have the same success just because his style is superficially similar, especially since Charlo did eventually make the necessary adjustments to stop Castano in the rematch.

What Canelo brings to the table that Castano didn’t are size and impeccable punch resistance, the latter of which will be key here. Charlo is skilled enough that he doesn’t need his power to bail him out, but being able to hurt his opponents is a big part of his success. Canelo still possesses one of the best chins in the entire sport, giving the smaller Charlo few means with which to slow Canelo’s advance.

Even with Canelo’s decline, I don’t believe Charlo can keep him from consistently getting inside, nor do I believe Charlo has the skill or firepower needed to neutralize Canelo there. Canelo’s aggression and more eye-catching blows earn him at least seven rounds before his gas tank peters out.

Prediction: Alvarez def. Charlo via unanimous decision

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