Predictions! UFC 294 Late ‘Prelims’ Preview – Pt. 2

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is bringing more “Prelims” fights to ESPN+ this weekend (Sat., Oct. 21, 2023) when UFC 294: “Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2” storms Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. MMAmania.com’s Patrick Stumberg continues the UFC 294 “Prelims” party with the second (and final) installment of a two-part undercard preview series below.

Despite some intense last-minute drama, UFC 294 hits Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, this Saturday (Oct. 21, 2023) with successfully salvaged main- and co-main events.

The afternoon’s featured attraction pits Lightweight champion, Islam Makhachev, against Featherweight roost-ruler, Alexander Volkanovski, who replaces Charles Oliveira on 11 days notice. Similarly, Kamaru Usman returns to the cage to battle Khamzat Chimaev in Paulo Costa’s bizarre absence.

We’ve four more UFC 294 “Prelims” undercard bouts to examine before that, though (check out the first batch here). Let’s hop to it …

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

125 lbs.: Tim Elliott vs. Muhammad Mokaev

The post-The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) UFC return for Tim Elliott (20-12-1) wasn’t quite the triumph he wanted, dropping five of his next seven bouts inside the Octagon. He’s since righted the ship with a 4-1 run, the sole loss a narrow one to Matheus Nicolau.

He gives up four inches of reach to Muhammad Mokaev (10-0).

After making his name in BRAVE CF, “The Punisher” burst out of the UFC gate with a 58-second club-and-sub of Cody Durden in his Octagon debut. He had to settle for a decision against Charles Johnson his next time out, but returned to his finishing ways via back-to-back submissions over Malcolm Gordon and Jafel Filho.

Five of his six professional finishes have come via submission.

Mokaev’s passivity is the biggest knock on him, but it may be his saving grace here. Elliott thrives in chaos, relying on intense scrambles to steadily wear down his opponents and eliminate any technical disadvantages through attrition. Mokaev has the cardio to shoot takedowns more than two dozen times in 15 minutes and is more than happy to avoid the sorts of risks that Elliott loves to capitalize on.

Mokaev shouldn’t be a 5:1 favorite, but I just can’t sell myself on an Elliott victory against a much younger and more athletically gifted wrestler, especially since Elliott has landed one submission in the last eight years. In the end, Mokaev survives a few hairy scrambles to grind out a decision.

Prediction: Mokaev via unanimous decision

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC

155 lbs.: Mohammad Yahya vs. Trevor Peek

Mohammad Yahya (12-3) battled out of a 4-3 slump to enter the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion on a five-fight win streak. Said streak saw him knockout Yazid Chouchane for UAE Warriors gold and subsequently make two successful defenses.

He’ll enjoy a three-inch reach advantage over Trevor Peek (8-1).

Peek clubbed his way to an upset knockout of Malik Lewis on Contender Series, then celebrated his UFC contract by stopping Erick Gonzalez in similar fashion. Then came late replacement Chepe Mariscal, who out-struck and out-grappled Peek en route to a unanimous decision win.

All of his wins have come via knockout, six of them in the first round.

I like the matchmaking here, honestly. Yahya is by far the more technical boxer and has a solid grappling base, but can be overly passive. Peek, by contrast, has no technical base whatsoever but makes up for it with gusto. They’ve each struggled with the others’ key weapons as well; Yahya got dropped hard by an ugly overhand not long ago and Peek couldn’t handle Mariscal’s more focused approach.

Maybe this is just me wanting the more entertaining outcome, but I favor Peek. Yahya stands very upright and doesn’t have great footwork, so Peek shouldn’t have too much trouble bullying him to the fence and unloading. Yahya also gassed badly against Souhil Tahiri last time, suggesting he can’t handle Peek’s pace. This could turn into a repeat of the Mariscal fight, but I like Peek to sprawl-and-brawl his way to a finish late in the first or early in the second.

Prediction: Peek via first round technical knockout

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC

135 lbs.: Javid Basharat vs. Victor Henry

After a perfect run (10-0) on the European scene, Javid Basharat (14-0) dominated Oron Kahlon on Contender Series to claim a UFC contract. He’s now won three straight in the Octagon, most recently out-classing fellow Contender Series alum, Mateus Mendonca, in January.

His 11 professional finishes are split 6:5 between submissions and knockouts.

An 8-1 run — marred only by a loss to standout Denis Lavrentyev — earned Victor Henry (23-6) a long-overdue Octagon debut in 2022. “La Mangosta” sits at 2-1 inside the Octagon, a loss to Raphael Assuncao sandwiched between decisions over Raoni Barcelos and Tony Gravely.

He faces a two-inch height disadvantage and a one-inch reach disadvantage.

If there’s one thing Basharat’s proven in the Octagon, it’s his ability to handle pressure. His footwork held up against the aggression of Gravely and Mendonca, and though Henry is a much more technically adept striker than either of those two, he’s not particularly fast or agile. Unlike Gravely or Barcelos, Basharat’s not going to mix it up with him any more than he has to, especially as the taller and rangier man.

I just don’t think Henry can make Basharat hold still long enough to get any real attrition going, especially since Basharat also has some wrestling in his back pocket to further blunt Henry’s momentum. In short, hit-and-run tactics should carry Basharat to his fourth UFC victory.

Prediction: Basharat via unanimous decision

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

185 lbs.: Abu Azaitar vs. Sedriques Dumas

Abu Azaitar (14-3) kicked off his UFC tenure with a decision over TUF: Brazil veteran, Vitor Miranda. Then came a 2.5-year-layoff, followed by a technical knockout loss to Marc-Andre Barriault upon his return.

This marks his first fight in more than 30 months.

Sedriques Dumas (8-1) earned some hype with a 47-second submission on Contender Series, only to get dominated by Josh Fremd in his UFC debut. His sophomore bout pitted him against late replacement Cody Brundage, whose endless pursuit of fruitless guillotines allowed Dumas to grind out a decision win.

He stands five inches taller than Azaitar and boasts a three-inch reach advantage.

It’s fair to call Dumas’ UFC tenure deeply underwhelming. He had nothing for Fremd’s rudimentary offense and likely would have lost to Brundage’s wrestling had the latter not sold out on guillotines and then given up as soon as he lost them. Still, between Azaitar’s massive layoffs and the way he fell apart against Barriault, it’s hard to have faith in “Captain Morocco,” either.

Dumas just seems to have a few more pros to go with his laundry list of cons, namely height, reach, and power. All Azaitar really has going for him is pressure, which he doesn’t seem equipped to maintain for 15 minutes. That might not even matter, though, as I like Dumas to catch him cold before Azaitar can shake off the rust.

Prediction: Dumas via first round technical knockout

UFC 294 is definitely much better than we could have hoped for given the circumstances. See you Saturday, Maniacs.

Current Prediction Record for 2023: 147-87-1 (3 NC)

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 294 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 10 a.m. ET, before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 294: “Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.