Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight scrappers Tony Ferguson and Paddy Pimblett will square off this weekend (Sat., Dec. 16, 2023) at UFC 296 inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
It doesn’t take a genius to understand why this fight got booked. The wheels nearly came off Pimblett’s hype train last time out, as Jared Gordon largely boxed him up before the judges awarded “The Baddy” the win anyway (watch highlights). That would have cost UFC one of its relatively few remaining stars, so it’s time to get Pimblett a “real” win.
Enter “El Cucuy!” Once one of the best Lightweights alive, Ferguson has recently looked as stiff as the battered steel poles he used to train his shins against. Unless David Goggins manage to reawaken the animal in Ferguson, there’s little hope for the former interim Lightweight kingpin.
All the same, let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each man:
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Tony Ferguson
Record: 25-8
Key Wins: Kevin Lee (UFC 216), Rafael dos Anjos (UFC Fight Night 98), Anthony Pettis (UFC 229), Edson Barboza (TUF 22 Finale), Josh Thomson (UFC Fight Night 71), Donald Cerrone (UFC 238)
Key Losses: Justin Gaethje (UFC 249), Charles Oliveira (UFC 256), Beneil Dariush (UFC 262), Michael Chandler (UFC 274), Nate Diaz (UFC 279), Bobby Green (UFC 291)
Keys to Victory: It’s hard for me to describe Ferguson’s skill set without referring back to the days of old. At his peak, Ferguson was one of the most creatively violent finishers to ever step foot into the cage, and he seemed to be made of iron. He often broke top-notch fighters casually.
Nowadays, he doesn’t look like he belongs in the cage at all.
Still, Pimblett is — in my most genuine analyst’s opinion — the worst fighter Ferguson has faced since … Abel Trujillo in 2014? It’s a clear step back, and perhaps enough of one that Ferguson can start to rekindle what used to work for him.
If he can build some confidence and let his offense fly, hope is alive. Ferguson still has power in his hands — and even diminished — he can find Pimblett’s chin. He just has to keep the fighting standing and let his strikes go consistently, and then there’s at least a chance of the upset.
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Paddy Pimblett
Record: 20-3
Key Wins: Jared Gordon (UFC 282), Julian Erosa (Cage Warriors Unplugged), Jordan Leavitt (UFC London 2), Rodrigo Vargas (UFC London), Luigi Vendramini (UFC Vegas 36)
Key Losses: Soren Bak (Cage Warriors 96), Nad Narimani (Cage Warriors 82)
Keys to Victory: Pimblett isn’t a bad fighter by any means. He’s tough, can hit hard, and is a genuinely gifted submission grappler. The problem is that his takedowns are thoroughly okay, and his striking defense is straight up bad. Still, he wins far more often than not, and at 28 years of age, there’s always a chance he figures out how to fix those flaws and actually becomes something special.
Pimblett has aggression and confidence in spades, and that may be all it takes to beat Ferguson at this stage of the game. Recently, opponents have not struggled at all to take down “El Cucuy,” and if Pimblett is on top, he’s surely winning the fight.
The recipe for success seems simple then. Pimblett would be wise to activate one of his patented “Baddy” swarms — a predictable but dangerous flurry off lefts and rights — to back Ferguson up and get him defensive, then duck into a takedown along the fence. From there, it’s punches and submission attempts until the 39-year-old is finished.
Bottom Line
This is Tony Ferguson’s last stand.
UFC CEO, Dana White, said as much earlier this year, and it makes sense from all perspectives. Defeat would be his seventh loss in a row, which would set a UFC record. For the promotion, they’re looking to build one last athlete off his name. The young feast upon the old in the fight game, and Ferguson is the latest to experience this trend.
He’s fighting to be the rare exception.
As for Pimblett, this is a showcase fight. It’s supposed to get fight fans excited about “The Baddy” again after a controversial decision and long layoff. If he goes out and finishes Ferguson as expected, he can build his star and score a ranked opponent in his next showing. If this whole thing backfires and Ferguson beats him up, well, now we all know for certain that Pimblett is a fun fighter and not a contender.
At UFC 296, Tony Ferguson and Paddy Pimblett will go to war. Which man remains standing when the dust settles?
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 296 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
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