Predictions! UFC 296 Late ‘Prelims’ Preview – Pt. 2

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is bringing more “Prelims” fights to ESPN+ this weekend (Sat., Dec. 16, 2023) when UFC 296: “Edwards vs. Covington” storms T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. MMAmania.com’s Patrick Stumberg continues UFC 296’s “Prelims” party with the second (and final) installment of a two-part undercard preview series below.

After proving that his epic title-winning knockout of Kamaru Usman was no fluke, Welterweight roost-ruler, Leon Edwards, faces another lethal challenger this weekend (Sat., Dec. 16, 2023) when he meets Colby Covington atop UFC 296, which will take place inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

UFC 296’s pay-per-view (PPV) co-feature sees Alexandre Pantoja rematch fellow Flyweight danger man, Brandon Royval, in his inaugural title defense, while Stephen Thompson looks to derail Shavkat Rakhmonov and Tony Ferguson makes another agonizing walk against Paddy Pimblett.

We’ve got four more UFC 296 “Prelims” undercard bouts to examine (checkout the first batch here). No time like the present …

145 lbs.: Josh Emmett vs. Bryce Mitchell

A five-fight win streak earned Josh Emmett (18-4) a shot at interim gold against Yair Rodriguez, who handed Emmett his first-ever submission loss late in the second round (watch highlights). He returned four months later to battle Ilia Topuria in a UFC Jacksonville main event that saw Topuria brutalize Emmett for 25 minutes.

He stands four inches shorter than Bryce Mitchell (16-1) at 5’6.”

“Thug Nasty” put his 1-1 The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 27 run behind him to win his first six in the Octagon. Though he ran afoul of the aforementioned Topuria in Dec. 2022, he grinded his way back into the win column nine months later by edging out Dan Ige.

He steps in for the injured Giga Chikadze on just 10 days’ notice.

Though the short notice will definitely work in Emmett’s favor because of how cardio-intensive Mitchell’s style is, I don’t like the matchup for him at all. He doesn’t have the jab or footwork to keep Mitchell at a distance and lacks the wrestling to just big brother him the way Topuria did. Emmett needs to land that death punch of his to win, but between Mitchell’s toughness and the fact that Emmett hasn’t scored a knockout in 4.5 years, that doesn’t seem likely.

Emmett turns 39 in a few months and doesn’t have enough technical depth to his style to make up for his declining explosiveness. In the end, expect Mitchell to out-hustle him and grind his way to another ugly decision win.

Prediction: Mitchell via unanimous decision

135 lbs.: Irene Aldana vs. Karol Rosa

A 4-1 run highlighted by three knockouts earned Irene Aldana (14-7) a crack at women’s G.O.A.T. Amanda Nunes in June 2023. The big lights proved too bright for Aldana, who landed a measly 41 strikes over the course of a 25-minute mauling.

Eight of her 11 professional stoppages have come via knockout.

Karol Rosa’s (17-5) undefeated UFC run came to an end at the hands of Sara McMann, who powered through a late comeback to beat Rosa by decision. She’s 2-1 since, a decision defeat to Norma Dumont sandwiched between narrow wins over Lina Lansberg and Yana Santos.

She stands four inches shorter than Aldana and gives up one inch of reach.

I must say, I haven’t been terribly impressed with either of these women lately. Aldana was on her way to defeat against Macy Chiasson before scoring that miracle upkick and looked terrified to even consider engaging with Nunes, while Rosa barely let her hands go against Dumont and nearly lost a very winnable fight with Santos.

That said, Aldana’s red flags are more worrying. Chiasson racked up a ton of control time despite being a notoriously poor takedown artist, giving Rosa a clear path to victory. Aldana does have the edge on the feet thanks to her power, but Rosa is a dangerous boxer in her own right when switched on. So long as Rosa throws her usual amount of volume and doesn’t neglect the takedowns, she’ll edge Aldana out for a critical decision win.

Prediction: Rosa via split decision

135 lbs.: Cody Garbrandt vs. Brian Kelleher (24-14)

The meteoric rise of Cody Garbrandt (13-5) gave way to an equally abrupt fall that saw him lose five of his next six bouts, four of them inside the distance. “No Love” righted the ship somewhat in March 2023, grappling his way past Trevin Jones for just his second win since 2016.

He’s ended 10 professional fights inside the distance, all by knockout.

Now 6.5 years removed from the massive upset of Iuri Alcantara that kicked off his UFC career, Brian Kelleher (24-14) sits at 8-7 in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion. “Boom” enters the cage this Saturday on the heels of back-to-back submission losses to Umar Nurmagomedov and Mario Bautista.

This marks his first fight in nearly 18 months.

On paper, Kelleher represents a reasonably safe step up from Jones. His takedown defense is far from impenetrable, as his recent struggles made very clear, so Garbrandt’s new wrestle-heavy approach should work a treat.

What Kelleher has that Jones doesn’t, however, is doggedness. Unless Garbrandt can hit his first career submission or stop Kelleher with strikes — a feat only John Lineker managed in Kelleher’s 42 professional fights — “Boom” will be in his face all night. And that’s not the best situation for someone whose confidence is clearly compromised. In short, expect a repeat of Kelleher’s win over Hunter Azure as he survives a round or two on his back to hunt down a fading Garbrandt and hammer his way to a comeback win.

Prediction: Kelleher via third round technical knockout

125 lbs.: Casey O’Neill vs. Ariane Lipski

Casey O’Neill (9-1) began her UFC run with three consecutive stoppage wins, then out-dueled Roxanne Modafferi in the latter’s final bout. Then came Jennifer Maia, who out-struck “King” in March 2023 to claim an upset decision victory.

She sports a two-inch reach advantage over Ariane Lipski (16-8).

“Queen of Violence” struggled to find her footing in the Octagon, losing five of her first eight after a torrid run in KSW. Her 2023 campaign has proven more successful, claiming back-to-back upset victories over J.J. Aldrich and Melissa Gatto.

She’s scored six knockouts and three submissions as a professional.

As well as she’s done of late, I’m not convinced that Lipski’s fixed what ails her, specifically her wrestling. Aldrich got in on her hips and locked her hands multiple times, and while Aldrich wasn’t a good enough takedown artist to take advantage, O’Neill most certainly is. O’Neill was weirdly reluctant to grapple Maia, but Maia’s ground game is good enough to be a deterrent and Lipski’s barely exists.

It’s not like O’Neill is out-gunned on the feet, either. Though Lipski hits harder, O’Neill is an absurdly prolific volume puncher. In other words, O’Neill hangs with Lipski on the feet just long enough to take it south, where she mauls her way to victory.

Prediction: O’Neill via second round technical knockout

Paddy Pimblett vs. Tony Ferguson debacle aside, UFC 296 is a strong way to end a tumultuous year. See you Saturday, Maniacs.

Current Prediction Record for 2023: 181-95-3 (5 NC)

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 296 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 296: “Edwards vs. Covington” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.