Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Flyweight talents Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval will collide this weekend (Sat., Dec. 16, 2023) at UFC 296 inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Pantoja made the move from divisional dark horse to undisputed king earlier this year, jumping up from the undercard to dethrone Brandon Moreno in one of the year’s best fights. The Brazilian is an offense-first fighter, willing to brawl at the first sign of opposition. There’s little doubt that “Raw Dog” will oblige him. Royval is known for chaos himself, except that absolute madness tends to be his default game plan. The two met once previously in 2021, and Royval’s wild style ended up biting him when Pantoja found his back — and the submission win — midway through the second round.
It’s time for round two! Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each man:
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Alexandre Pantoja
Record: 26-5
Key Wins: Brandon Moreno (UFC 290, UFC Fight Night 129), Brandon Royval (UFC Vegas 34), Manel Kape (UFC Vegas 18), Alex Perez (UFC 277), Matt Schnell (UFC Fight Night 165)
Key Losses: Askar Askarov (UFC Fight Island 2), Deiveson Figueiredo (UFC 240), Dustin Ortiz (UFC 220)
Keys to Victory: Pantoja is an interesting combination of standup and ground skills. On his feet, he can play either the disciplined range kicker or absolute wild man. From either the range control or chaos, he’s often able to time takedowns and score the back mount.
He might just be the best backpack in the sport right now.
In the first fight, Pantoja survived Royval’s wild attack. “Raw Dog” threw a ton of strikes and landed a decent few, but Pantoja was patient in finding his moment to jump the back. Moments later, it was all over.
I would expect Royval to be more patient in response, similar to his Matheus Nicolau performance. Therefore, in order to create those takedown and back-taking opportunities, Pantoja should be trying to draw the crazy out of Royval. Pantoja has an iron chin and can hold his own in a brawl with the likes of Deiveson Figueiredo, so it’s not unreasonable to do the same here.
Do we really think “Raw Dog” can resist taking the bait? If Pantoja swings three hooks at his opponent’s face, Royval is going to stand his ground and fire back, and it’s takedown time.
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Brandon Royval
Record: 15-6
Key Wins: Kai Kara-France (UFC 253), Matheus Nicolau (UFC Kansas City), Matt Schnell (UFC 274), Tim Elliott (UFC Vegas 1)
Key Losses: Alexandre Pantoja (UFC Vegas 34), Brandon Moreno (UFC 255), Casey Kenney (LFA 53)
Keys to Victory: Royval has a bit of peak “El Cucuy” to his style. He’s got a deep arsenal of flashy strikes that make use of his length, conditioning, and toughness. If his opponent tries to wrestle him, they can expect a dozen submission attempts as soon as the fight touches the floor.
He’s finished 13 of his opponents via strikes or submission, but pace might be his greatest weapon.
Royval found some good success in the first fight. He definitely landed more and harder shots, but the problem is that Pantoja was able to take them and wait until he made a mistake on the floor.
There’s a small adjustment that has to be made. Royval can afford to be wild on the feet, and he can afford to be taken down a few times. Once on the mat, however, Royval has to shift his focus from throwing up submissions to getting back to his feet. For expert top players like Pantoja, there is real opportunity in a triangle attempt, opportunity to pass the guard and advance towards a dominant position.
The odds of hitting an armbar from his back against a black belt like Pantoja just aren’t great. Royval would be better served kicking Pantoja off, standing up, and letting damage build on the durable Brazilian.
The more punches, knees, and elbows Royval scores on the feet, the more his odds of landing a funky submission increase over time.
Bottom Line
The Flyweight belt is back on the line!
Pantoja’s victory over Moreno was a great fight, capped off by an amazing post-fight speech. I won’t call it a star-making performance — is Flyweight even allowed to have a star? — but it was endearing. If he can continue his winning ways here on another high-profile event, it should build the champion’s name and legacy further.
Royval has grown a solid fanbase in a short time due to his high-risk style of fighting and exceptional highlight reel. “Raw Dog” as champion wasn’t an outcome many would have predicted even just a couple years ago, but he’s shown solid technical development and has the perfect opportunity to demonstrate his improvement at Pantoja’s expense.
At UFC 296, Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval will battle in the co-main event. Who leaves the cage strapped with a belt?
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 296 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To check out the latest and greatest UFC 296: “Edwards vs. Covington” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.