Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Bantamweight wrestlers Merab Dvalishvili and Henry Cejudo will battle this weekend (Sat., Feb. 17, 2024) at UFC 298 inside Honda Center in Anaheim, California.
Dvalishvili has earned a Bantamweight title shot.
A nine-fight win streak filled by multiple former champions and top contenders should be an obvious case, but he’s been denied. It’s partially his own fault for failing to demand a shot, but also, UFC is fully on board the Sean O’Malley train and wants to push “Suga” into superstardom. Matching him with a grinding wrestler doesn’t do that, but a rematch with Marlon Vera, the only man to beat him?
As for Cejudo, the former double champion wants another title shot after his failed bid to dethrone Aljamain Sterling last year. At 37 years of age, the clock is ticking for “The Messenger,” but a statement win here would go a long way in moving him back into contention.
Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each man:
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Merab Dvalishvili
Record: 16-4
Key Wins: Petr Yan (UFC Las Vegas), Jose Aldo (UFC 278), Marlon Moraes (UFC 266), Cody Stamann (UFC Vegas 25), Casey Kenney (UFC Fight Night 167), Brad Katona (UFC Fight Night 151)
Key Losses: Ricky Simon (UFC Fight Night 128), Frankie Saenz (UFC Fight Night 123)
Keys to Victory: Dvalishvili is one of the greatest personifications of pace in the modern era. He strikes and wrestles more with the intent to exhaust and break his opponent mentally than to simply gain top position, but the end result is often the same.
In this bout, Dvalishvili just has to remember a simple concept: Olympic medals aren’t real. For all of his incredible accomplishments on the mat, Cejudo has never been that dominant of a wrestler in the cage, particularly at Bantamweight. Offensive wrestling is an important part of Dvalishvili’s attack, and he shouldn’t stray away with it because Cejudo took gold way back in 2008.
Furthermore, Dvalishvili doesn’t even have to land his takedowns to play his game, a fact he proved against Petr Yan. If Dvalishvili is pushing the pace, putting Cejudo on the defensive with takedown attempts, and break with shots, he can control this fight without ever actually grounding “The Messenger.”
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Henry Cejudo
Record: 16-3
Key Wins: T.J. Dillashaw (UFC on ESPN+ 1), Demetrious Johnson (UFC 227), Marlon Moraes (UFC 238), Dominick Cruz (UFC 249), Sergio Pettis (UFC 218), Jussier Formiga (UFC Fight Night 78)
Key Losses: Aljamain Sterling (UFC 288), Demetrious Johnson (UFC 197), Joseph Benavidez (UFC TUF 24 Finale)
Keys to Victory: Cejudo is a tremendous athlete with elite wrestling and a boxing background. It was no surprise that he became a champion and top contender, but his ability to adjust his game into the karate-boxing style was definitely unexpected and has paid dividends.
In this bout, the top priority is making Dvalishvili fail for paid takedown attempts. Again, it doesn’t matter at all if Cejudo denies all 30 of Dvalishvili’s takedown attempts but is bullied in the process. He has to counter Dvalishvili’s wrestling offense either by putting him in bad positions or hitting him, because Dvalishvili is not a good striker without the wrestling threat.
Therefore, discouraging him from wrestling is key. If Dvalishvili’s early shots see him reversed or kneed in the face, he’s going to adjust his course. The more hesitant Dvalishvili becomes to wrestle, the more Cejudo is going to be able to force a kickboxing match and demonstrate his cleaner technique.
Bottom Line
It’s a possible title eliminator.
Merab Dvalishvili fully deserves a title shot if he wins here. Problematically, I also believe Cory Sandhagen fully deserves a title shot, but the case for “The Machine” is impossible to argue. Unless “Suga” really does abandon his division to chase a second title — ALREADY?!? — Dvalishvili really should lock down that opportunity with a tenth (!!!) straight victory. If he comes up short, his win streak goes down as one of the all-time best to not receive a title shot.
I am less sold on Cejudo’s title shot argument, seeing as he hasn’t actually won a fight since 2020. While ending Dvalishvili’s run would obviously be huge and confirm him as a Top Five Bantamweight, I’m not sure it guarantees him a chance at the O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera victor. More likely, he has to win once more.
At UFC 298, Merab Dvalishvili and Henry Cejudo will throw down. Which man remains standing when the dust settles?
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 298 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
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