Who’s ready for more BIGI BOY?!?
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 87 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow afternoon (Sat., March 2, 2024) on ESPN+ from inside the promotion’s APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, featuring a heavyweight main event between Top 15 contender Jairzinho Rozenstruik and undefeated Bahraini bruiser Shamil Gaziev, a five-round headliner with major title implications for late 2024 and beyond.
Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the 205-pound scrap between light heavyweight sluggers Tyson Pedro and Vitor Petrino, checkout Patrick Stumberg’s breakdowns for the UFC Vegas 87 “Prelims” card by clicking here and here. Get all the latest “Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev” odds and betting props courtesy of DraftKings right here. For the rest of tomorrow night’s UFC Vegas 87 main card predictions click here.
265 lbs.: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev
Jairzinho “Bigi Boy” Rozenstruik
Record: 13-5 | Age: 35 | Betting line: +140
Wins: 12 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 1 DEC | Losses: 2 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 6’2“ | Reach: 78” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.81 | Striking accuracy: 45%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.15 | Striking Defense: 45%
Takedown Average: 0.00 (0% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 73%
Current Ranking: No. 12 | Last fight: Submission loss to Jailton Almeida
Shamil Gaziev
Record: 12-0 | Age: 34 | Betting line: -165
Wins: 8 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 1 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 6’4“ | Reach: 78” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 6.19 | Striking accuracy: 51%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 0.93 | Striking Defense: 60%
Takedown Average: 0.00 (0% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 100%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Technical knockout win over Martin Buday
Move over Sean Strickland, there’s a new “Mr. APEX” in town.
Well-traveled heavyweight mainstay Jairzinho Rozenstruik will return for his fourth APEX headliner over the last three years in a contest that is likely to make or break his place among the division elite. The Surinamese striker is a former kickboxer with a resume that features some of the biggest names in the discipline, including Benjamin Adegbuyi and Michael Duut. “Bigi Boy” eventually crossed over to UFC because there are more opportunities in MMA — and certainly more money. The success of strikers depends largely on how they’re booked. Semmy Schilt and Mark Hunt, for example, two world champions under the K-1 banner, were easily dispatched by Josh Barnett via first-round submissions. Similarly, Curtis Blaydes was able to neutralize Rozenstruik at UFC 266 with a fan-unfriendly mixture of takedowns and backpedaling. When the former DangerZone heavyweight champion is dialed in, however, and can find his range, he’s a lethal striker with frightening power. Under-30 second knockouts over Chris Daukaus and Andrei Arlovski are a testament to his brutality.
Now he’s facing an opponent who offers more questions than answers.
“If the UFC selected the guy as a main event, then you know he’s a big deal,” Rozenstruik said at the UFC Vegas 87 media day (watch it here). “He has a perfect record. You’ve got to give him his props. You’ve got to take him serious. 12-0. It’s not that he’s doing nothing. So this weekend, he’s going to get a test. I’m very happy the UFC see the main event caliber in me. It’s definitely a big opportunity. I can’t wait to go in there this Saturday and do my thing. I definitely think they see me as a guy you can put there and get the job done. So I’m happy they recognize that. Now the day’s almost there for me to do my part.”
Shamil Gaziev has been running the table on the International scene since late 2020 and spent a couple of years on the amateur circuit before that, so he’s certainly no stranger to the rigors of cagefighting. The Bahraini bruiser is a perfect 12-0 in his professional career with 11 finishes, but it’s important to note that half of those opponents share a combined 3-13 record with three of them failing to achieve a single win in MMA. Not exactly the stuff of legend. On Dana White’s “Contender Series,” Gaziev tapped out Cage Fury Fighting Championships import Greg Velasco, then followed up that performance with a technical knockout victory over Slovakian striker Martin Buday at UFC 296. That said, the KHK MMA Team product has been a tough sell for fickle UFC fans, who continue to speak ill of Gaziev because … well, that’s just what fans do on the Internet, now matter how well an athlete performs.
“Fans are different,” Gaziev said at the UFC Vegas 87 media day (watch it here). “Some people understand, real fans, that it’s a good thing for our division to have new blood. But some people just trash talk. They just want to write something. They write. I don’t get serious with comments. So just my advice is to be happy there is a new fighter coming and making a big statement. As you saw in my UFC debut, just watch it and enjoy. I want to fight (for the title) as soon as possible. Big fights will get me to the UFC gold. If UFC will tell me to do another 10 fights to reach that, I’m ready to do (those) fights also.”
I think it’s important to note that Gaziev turned 34 just a few weeks back (Rozenstruik is 35), so it’s not like he’s some 20-something phenom who’s improving by leaps and bounds with each successive fight. He’s certainly proven to be a formidable opponent thus far in his career, it’s just hard to pick him against Rozenstruik. I don’t want to casually wave off the recent struggles from “Bigi Boy” but he’s also faced some of the toughest outs at 265 pounds. Gaziev has never been tested by the 80” reach of Alexander Volkov, or tried to shuck off takedowns from a barreling brute like Curtis Blaydes. In addition, his striking pedigree does not measure up to his opponent, so in a standup battle I would give him a puncher’s chance — assuming Rozenstruik commits to a sound defensive gameplan. “Bigi Boy” has been around longer, faced tougher competition, and is the more accomplished striker. Unless he’s reached a point in his career where he’s just showing up for the paycheck, or somehow burned himself out to the point of fragility, I think he reestablishes himself as a force to be reckoned with.
Prediction: Rozenstruik def. Gaziev by technical knockout
205 lbs.: Tyson Pedro vs. Vitor Petrino
Tyson Pedro
Record: 10-4 | Age: 32 | Betting line: +245
Wins: 5 KO/TKO, 5 SUB, 0 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 6’3“ | Reach: 79” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.11 | Striking accuracy: 61%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.53 | Striking Defense: 54%
Takedown Average: 0.94 (36% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 52%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Knockout win over Anton Turkalj
“Merciless” Vitor Petrino
Record: 10-0 | Age: 26 | Betting line: -305
Wins: 7 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 2 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 6’2“ | Reach: 77” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.07 | Striking accuracy: 48%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.65 | Striking Defense: 43%
Takedown Average: 4.15 (70% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 68%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Knockout win over Modestas Bukauskas
Tyson Pedro went from “next big thing” to “wait I remember that guy” after roughly eight years under the UFC banner. That’s because the Aussie missed nearly four years of his competitive prime dealing with a series of devastating knee injuries, not unlike the run of bad luck suffered by crestfallen ex-champion Dominick Cruz, resulting in multiple surgeries and extended delays. Pedro, now 32, made his UFC comeback in early 2022 and has since put together a 3-1 record with all three victories ending in first-round knockouts. To his credit, he’s just as dangerous on the ground, racking up five submission wins — three by way of rear-naked choke. For tomorrow night’s APEX card, Pedro will be facing an exciting young prospect who is already being pegged as the future of the light heavyweight division.
“I’m just getting there (in my career),” Pedro said at the UFC Vegas 87 media day (watch it here). “I feel good where I’m at right now, so I’m just going with it. I’m like fine wine, man: I’m getting better with age. Bring it. That’s it. Let’s go. I was a hype train once. It just takes a better fighter to beat him, so I’m ready to take that zero.”
Vitor Petrino comes to UFC from Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in late 2022, where he sent Rodolfo Bellato to the shadow realm with a second-round knockout. The “Merciless” Brazilian competed three times in 2023 and yielded similar results, putting the screws to Anton Turkalj (UFC Las Vegas) before absolutely destroying Marcin Prachnio (UFC 290) and Modestas Bukauskas (UFC São Paulo). It’s been a pretty remarkable run for the 26 year-old light heavyweight who fights with an aggression that hearkens back to Brazilians of violence past, like Wanderlei Silva, but he’s also proven to be an effective wrestler with an exhausting pace. Not every performance has been perfect, but it’s hard to argue with the end result.
“I think it’s been a very productive year,” Petrino said at the UFC Vegas 87 media day (watch it here). “We’ve been able to submit, we’ve been able to knock out, we’ve been able to get ‘Fight of the Night.’ We’ve been able to show our work, and I think we’ve been able to show the world what we came here for. Tyson Pedro’s an experienced guy, a guy I used to watch before coming into the UFC. I like the style, he goes for it. He does a good job on the ground as well. I think this was good matchmaking, and I think it has all of the potential to be ‘Fight of the Night.’”
It would not surprise me to see Pedro weather an early storm, settle in, and dismantle the charging bull. It would also not surprise me to see the Aussie completely empty his tank after dealing with a Brazilian blitzkrieg. Expect wrestling to be a major factor in this contest — offensively as well as defensively — with the kind of back-and-forth action worthy of “Fight of the Night” honors. When push comes to shove, it’s hard to pick against the younger fighter, accurately reflected in the current betting line. Pedro definitely has the skills to get it done, I just think the fight will be over before he figures out how to implement them.
Prediction: Petrino def. Pedro by knockout
Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Vegas 87 main card predictions RIGHT HERE.
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