Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Bantamweight rivals Sean O’Malley and Marlon Vera will clash TONIGHT (Sat., March 9, 2024) at UFC 299 inside Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida.
O’Malley has his detractors, but it’s hard to argue with back-to-back wins over Petr Yan and Aljamain Sterling (watch it), the two most recent champions at 135 pounds. “Suga” may or may not be on the path to superstardom, but he’s more than proven himself as an elite Bantamweight and special knockout artist.
In this main event match up, O’Malley seeks revenge on the only man to ever beat him (full fight here). The low kick played a factor, certainly, but it’s important to remember that Vera ended that 2020 contest by separating O’Malley from his consciousness with brutal elbows. With that context in mind, the whole revenge booking makes a bit more sense than attributing the loss to a random peroneal nerve incident.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
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Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
O’Malley Vs. Vera Betting Odds
- Sean O’Malley victory: -280
- Sean O’Malley via TKO/KO/DQ: +240
- Sean O’Malley via submission: +1800
- Sean O’Malley via decision: +100
- Marlon Vera victory: +200
- Marlon Vera via TKO/KO/DQ: +500
- Marlon Vera via submission: +1600
- Marlon Vera via decision: +600
- Draw: +5000
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
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How O’Malley Wins
O’Malley is undoubtedly one of the finest strikers in the sport today. Long, quick and powerful, O’Malley hides knockout blows between stance shifts, feints, and crafty setups. He can attack well on his front foot and on the counter, and he can string together great combinations unlike most who operate in this style.
Against Vera, O’Malley has to accept that the knockout may not come. Vera is inhumanly durable, able to shuck off power shots from the likes of Jose Aldo and Song Yadong with relative ease. He rarely shows damage or even notes the impact of strikes against him.
Planning for a decision would be wise. O’Malley has to mix up his targets as well, aiming for attritional damage to the body and legs. Another good option could be intercepting elbows, which can create cuts and bleeding that affect Vera’s ability to fight well, even if his consciousness isn’t rattled.
Ultimately, O’Malley’s biggest advantage here is pure speed. Vera is comparatively quite flat-footed, and O’Malley has to use his own quickness to remain at an angle and keep Vera in pursuit. By sticking and moving, O’Malley can dictate when to trade and when to dance away, which should keep him both safe and ahead on the cards.
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How Vera Wins
Vera is a bruiser. The Ecuadorian athlete is patient and composed almost to a fault, utterly confident that he can handle his opponent’s power and that they will falter to his own blows. If there’s five minutes remaining and Vera is down four rounds to zero, the jiu-jitsu black belt will still operate as if the knockout is mere moments away.
And he might just be correct.
It’s not the most optimal way to fight, however. Cory Sandhagen rather recently demonstrated how Vera’s style of thinking can be taken advantage of by building an early lead and then refusing to let “Chito” rally back into the fight. O’Malley may not wrestle like “The Sandman,” but he surely watched that fight and took some notes about overarching strategy.
In this bout, Vera has to adjust and really double down on his conditioning edge. We’ve never seen O’Malley fight five rounds. We’ve certainly never see him do so against an ultra tough pressure fighter who can chip away at the legs, rip knees to the body, and offer up a serious knockout threat.
Vera wins this fight by constantly pressing and mixing up his offense. If he’s attacking at all levels and all ranges, as well as mixing in takedown attempts, he will find cracks in O’Malley’s defensive movement. Even if “Suga” is too fast early on, it’s fatiguing to maintain that level of footwork, particularly if his calf is being kicked and he’s forced to fight in the clinch every so often.
If Vera can slow O’Malley down and get him more stationary, he’ll be chum in the water.
O’Malley Vs. Vera Prediction
Despite this being a contest of proven elite Bantamweights, there are still unknowns here. Most notably, O’Malley’s energy-intensive style across five rounds remains a major question mark, particularly given his historic propensity for getting injured in fights. Then, there’s the worrisome issue that Vera just isn’t particularly good at winning rounds.
Only winning by finish isn’t particularly viable at the highest level. Despite that concern, I am siding with the Ecuadorian talent here.
Looking back over Vera’s record, there’s one reason I’m backing him: when is the last time Vera lost a kickboxing match? His last two losses to Sandhagen and Aldo saw him drop decisions because of takedowns … and that’s just not O’Malley’s bag. Without those wrestling tools, Sandhagen and Aldo would have either struggled far more heavily or lost outright.
This will be a striking match, and Vera understands how he wins fights. Often, when a fighter’s style seems to guarantee a finish, that’s when we get an unexpected five-round war (see Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland). I’m expecting a similar flow here, as Vera is touched up early before slowly working his way into the driver’s seat.
Prediction: Vera via decision (+600)
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 299 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
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