FLYWEIGHT FRACAS!
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Atlantic City mixed martial arts (MMA) event, set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., March 30, 2024) on ESPN and ESPN+ from inside Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey. UFC Atlantic City will feature a 125-pound main event pitting Top 5 flyweight contender Erin Blanchfield against French phenom Manon Fiorot, a five-round headliner with major title implications for late 2024 and beyond.
The winner is expected to face either Amanda Grasso or Valentina Shevchenko, depending on what happens in their flyweight championship trilogy.
Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the 170-pound scrap between welterweight warriors Vicente Luque and Joaquin Buckley, checkout Patrick Stumberg’s breakdowns for the UFC Atlantic City “Prelims” card by clicking here and here. Get all the latest “Blanchfield vs. Fiorot” odds and betting props courtesy of DraftKings right here. For the rest of tomorrow night’s UFC Atlantic City main card predictions click here.
125 lbs.: Erin Blanchfield vs. Manon Fiorot
Erin “Cold Blooded” Blanchfield
Record: 12-1 | Age: 24 | Betting line: -200
Wins: 2 KO/TKO, 4 SUB, 6 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 5’4“ | Reach: 66” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.58 | Striking accuracy: 52%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.32 | Striking Defense: 62%
Takedown Average: 2.86 (36% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 83%
Current Ranking: No. 2 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Taila Santos
Manon “The Beast” Fiorot
Record: 11-1 | Age: 34 | Betting line: +165
Wins: 6 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 5 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 5’7“ | Reach: 65” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 6.05 | Striking accuracy: 39%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.31 | Striking Defense: 69%
Takedown Average: 1.36 (46% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 91%
Current Ranking: No. 3 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Rose Namajunas
UFC flyweight up-and-comer Erin Blanchfield is currently sitting in the No. 2 spot at 125 pounds and for good reason. The “Cold Blooded” contender is a perfect 6-0 with three nasty finishes, putting the hurt on some very tough competition including Jessica Andrade and Taila Santos, among others. Not bad for a fighter who has yet to reach her 25th birthday and you can argue that Blanchfield has yet to reach her competitive prime. The New Jersey native is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Karel Pravec and averages 2.86 takedowns per fight, which includes a submission attempt rate of 1.2 for every 15 minutes of action. Considering the foundation of her offense, it may be surprising to learn that her striking statistics are not that far off from that of her opponent — in both directions.
“I don’t know (if she’s my toughest test),” Blanchfield said at the UFC Atlantic City media day. “Every fight is obviously super tough. Everyone in the top five is super tough. We’ve both beat former champions. My last fight was with Taila Santos who some people thought beat Valentina (Shevchenko). We’ve both had tough fights. I think my road’s been a little bit tougher. Our records are very similar. She’s long and rangy. I’ve had months to strategize for that and I feel super prepared for this fight and I’m excited to show it off on Saturday.”
Manon Fiorot made a spectacular debut at UFC Fight Island 8, popping and stopping Victoria Leonardo before moving on to wallop Tabatha Ricci in her sophomore effort. In the three years that followed, “The Beast” seemed to lose some of her killer instinct, rattling off four consecutive decisions in mostly forgettable affairs. You can also argue that her competition was far tougher than the Leonardos of the world, making it much harder (or far less appealing) to go for broke. Either way, Fiorot seems content to strike from range and rack up the necessary points for a sweep on the judges’ scorecards. I don’t know if that strategy will be enough for a gamer like Blanchfield, who will not be easily out-muscled.
“I think it will be a contrast of two different fighting styles,” Fiorot said at the UFC Atlantic City media day. “I know what she will do: Stay close to me, try to take me to the floor. I’m prepared and ready. I have no fear, and I know that I can manage both situations. Obviously I already deserved two times the title shot, but that’s how life goes. Sometimes there’s injuries and other things. So, of course, I believe the next fight will be for the title, and I know they have to make the trilogy (first), so I will wait no problem. The next one is the title.”
This is a tricky fight for a couple of reasons, with the contrast of styles being right at the top. I can easily envision a scenario where a frustrated Blanchfield spends 25 minutes chasing a takedown that won’t come as “The Beast” plays matador. I can just as easily see Fiorot open with two strong rounds, then run out of gas and get turned inside out by her younger foe. 34 years-old versus 24 years-old is a huge difference when we’re talking about high-intensity combat and I think that may be the tipping point. Assuming she doesn’t get chinned with an overzealous offense to open the bout, I expect Blanchfield to slowly (but surely) wear down her opponent, weather a few flurries, and submit an exhausted Fiorot late in the fight.
Prediction: Blanchfield def. Fiorot by submission
170 lbs.: Vicente Luque vs. Joaquin Buckley
Vicente “Silent Assassin” Luque
Record: 22-9-1 | Age: 32 | Betting line: -120
Wins: 11 KO/TKO, 8 SUB, 3 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 6 DEC
Height: 5’11“ | Reach: 75” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.17 | Striking accuracy: 52%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 5.15 | Striking Defense: 52%
Takedown Average: 1.04 (60% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 62%
Current Ranking: No. 11 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Rafael dos Anjos
Joaquin “New Mansa” Buckley
Record: 17-6 | Age: 29 | Betting line: -105
Wins: 12 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 5 DEC | Losses: 4 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 5’10“ | Reach: 76” | Stance: Southpaw
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.87 | Striking accuracy: 33%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.31 | Striking Defense: 57%
Takedown Average: 1.51 (36% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 55%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Alex Morono
Vicente Luque has been one of the most exciting fighters to watch over the last nine years, racking up an incredible eight post-fight performance bonuses, including four “Fight of the Night” honors. Unfortunately, it’s true what they say about living and dying by the sword. After a torrid 10-1 run through the welterweight division, the Brazilian dropped two straight, with his knockout loss to Geoff Neal causing a brain hemorrhage — and subsequent one-year medical suspension. Upon his return, “The Silent Assassin” was able to grind out a decision win over former lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos, an ugly and unimpressive performance when you consider “RDA” has been taken down nearly 70 times in his UFC career.
Not surprisingly, Dos Anjos only managed 66 significant strikes across five rounds of competition. I’m making a big deal out of that fight because it didn’t really tell us much about where Luque stands post-brain bleed. If you look at his stats, he gets blasted with just as many blows as he dishes out, which is probably the fastest way to shorten a career. In the old days he could eat that damage and march forward to impose his will. I’m not sure that’s a realistic option at age 32 with over 1,000 significant strikes absorbed.
“I’ve been in that position before, like in Buckley’s position,” Luque said at the UFC Atlantic City media day. “I’ve been the guy outside the rankings that people were concerned about because we’re good, we’re dangerous. Fighting is always risk, but I feel the more risk I take, the more reward I’m going to get from that. That’s how I look at this fight. Yeah, he’s not ranked, and he is dangerous, but I’m dangerous as well, and I’ll give him the opportunity to try to come in and beat me. I have a style that people love to watch, so at the end of the day it’s a fight that people are going to watch and are going to be supporting. I can showcase my skills and my work my way up in the division.”
Joaquin Buckley has yet to crack the Top 15 at 170 pounds but did have his 15 minutes of fame back in late 2020, starching PFL champion Impa Kasanganay with a thunderous spinning back kick knockout. Unfortunately for “New Mansa,” his biggest adversary has been consistency, evidenced by his 7-4 record dating back to a technical knockout loss to Kevin Holland at UFC Fight Island 5. The 29 year-old Buckley seems to have finally found his rhythm after dropping down from 185 pounds and he’s now the winner of two straight, smashing Andre Fialho at UFC Vegas 73 before shutting down the crafty Alex Morono at UFC Vegas 80. Buckley is a solid wrestler but has yet to score a submission victory in 23 professional fights, so the takedowns don’t really serve much purpose — aside from racking up points from the judges. His biggest weapon heading into UFC Atlantic City will be his speed, though getting close enough to use it may also backfire.
“Now that I’m getting a fight that I asked for, it’s a beautiful situation,” Buckley said at the UFC Atlantic City media day. “I’m appreciative of Vicente Luque actually taking on the challenge. Because at the end of the day, no matter if I want to fight him or if the UFC wants to book it, the opponent of mine has to take the fight and I’m just appreciative of Vicente Luque taking this fight. The biggest thing is I know what position it’s going to put me in as far as the status of the UFC. It puts me in the rankings and get put on route to become a world champion. I feel like I can do so much more with my career as a fighter and can come home to St. Louis and put on.”
I think the Luque of 2020 runs through this version of Buckley, much like he did against Randy Brown at UFC Vegas 5. That said, it’s 2024 and I don’t have a tremendous amount of confidence in the Brazilian’s ability to sustain damage. Maybe I’m overreacting or throwing in the towel too soon, it’s possible, I just think “The Silent Assassin” will rely on what got him to the dance — only to get beaten to the punch (literally) by the younger, faster Buckley.
Prediction: Buckley def. Luque by knockout
Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Atlantic City main card predictions RIGHT HERE.
MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Atlantic City fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN2/ESPN+ preliminary card bouts at 7 p.m. ET, followed by the ESPN/ESPN+ main card start time at 10 p.m. ET.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Atlantic City news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archives here and here. For the updated and finalized “Blanchfield vs. Fiorot” fight card and ESPN/ESPN+ line up click here.