Garbrandt vs. Figueiredo Betting Odds, Breakdown, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Bantamweight strikers Cody Garbrandt and Deiveson Figueiredo will clash this weekend (Sat., April 13, 2024) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC 300.

The rise and fall of “No Love” is well-documented, but the 32-year-old former champion is back in the win column and building a small bit of momentum. He’s won two in a row at 135 pounds, earning him a chance to step back into the mix of ranked opposition against a fellow former divisional kingpin. Figueiredo is just one fight deep into his Bantamweight move, but it was an impressive performance. He picked apart Rob Font, proving that both his power and wrestling translate well to the new division. Now, he’s aiming to go on a final title run.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Garbrandt vs. Figueiredo Betting Odds

• Cody Garbrandt victory: +245
• Deiveson Figueiredo victory: -360
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Garbrandt Wins

Garbrandt is infamous for relying too much on his right hand and not enough on his rounded skill set. “No Love” is a gifted boxer and wrestler, and over the years, he’s taken the time to develop a rather potent kicking game as well. At his best, he uses his speed and movement to walk opponents into heavy counter shots.

Garbrandt’s great advantage here is boxing. Figueiredo can rip together power punches in good combination, but he does some from more of a wide Muay Thai stance. That’s great for closing the distance suddenly or pulling back to fire counters, but it limits Figueiredo’s ability to trade well in the pocket unless he’s charging forward.

The gameplan then is in-and-out offense. Garbrandt has to be circling and drawing Figueiredo toward him, ready for that big explosion. When it comes, “No Love” should be looking to slip and return fire immediately and in combination. Between trades, Garbrandt should be looking to chip away at the Brazilian’s stance with calf kicks, which will help slow Figueiredo’s advances and make him more predictable.

How Figueiredo Wins

Figueiredo is a beast. “Daico” is one of the hardest hitters in Flyweight history, and while he’s happy to brawl, there’s also a lot of craft in his striking game. Plus, Figueiredo’s increased focus on timing his takedowns has brought his excellent jiu-jitsu game into play more often.

It’s no secret that Figueiredo wins this fight most likely by putting his right hand on Garbrandt’s chin. If the Brazilian can draw Garbrandt into a one-to-one trade, Figueiredo is likely to remain standing when the dust settles.

How to convince Garbrandt to trade? Pressure and calf kicks feels like the best bet. Brian Kelleher found good success in pushing Garbrandt back and booting his lead leg last time out, but “Boom” couldn’t stand up to his foe’s athleticism to build on that success. Figueiredo shouldn’t have that issue, and if he’s able to take away Garbrandt’s wheels, the former Bantamweight king will have no choice but to swing big.

That tends to be when Figueiredo creates car crashes.

Garbrandt vs. Figueiredo Prediction

This is a fight that can end in an instant between two knockout artists in uncertain positions.

How much can we make of Garbrandt’s recent success? On one hand, he’s now won three of his last four at Bantamweight, which is great. At the same time, Trevin Jones and Kelleher are not elite names, so it’s too early to say Garbrandt is BACK in peak form.

Conversely, Figueiredo has only beat up the aforementioned Font at 135 pounds, so he’s unproven in the weight class. Font is a good name, but he’s spent most of the last two years getting battered around the cage. He doesn’t appear to be at his best anymore, so some doubts remain regarding Figueiredo’s Bantamweight championship aspirations. At 36, we also have to wonder how much time “Daico” has left as an elite talent in the smaller weight classes.

Ultimately, I think Garbrandt’s speed will be the difference maker here. He has the ability to get to Figueiredo, and it seems unlikely that the Brazilian can simply walk through his shots like he did to so many Flyweights. Garbrandt will have to mind his defense, but the style match up lines up well for him here.

Prediction: Garbrandt victory (+245)

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