Andrade Vs. Rodriguez Betting Odds, Breakdown, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Flyweight finishers Jessica Andrade and Marina Rodriguez will go to war this weekend (Sat., April 13, 2024) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC 300.

Andrade — a former champion — endured an absurd 2023. Having bills to pay motivated the Brazilian to take the Donald Cerrone and Kevin Holland route: accepting as many fights as possible and racking up checks. She did suffer three straight losses in the process, but hopefully a return to a more normal schedule will allow her to perform her best. Rodriguez, meanwhile, nearly secured a title shot in 2022 before getting starched by Amanda Lemos in an upset defeat (watch it). She’s 1-1 since then, and the Muay Thai striker is looking to rebuild back into title contention by scoring the best win of her career.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Andrade vs. Rodriguez Betting Odds

• Jessica Andrade victory: -105
• Marina Rodriguez victory: -115
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Andrade Wins

Andrade is one of the heaviest hitters in the history of women’s mixed martial arts (MMA). She’s a clubbing puncher who works up and down the body with powerful combinations that can really break down opponents quickly. In addition, she’s a very physical wrestler with underrated offensive Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

This fight feels like the match up for Andrade to return to her “Bate Estaca” roots. The Brazilian pile driver certainly hits hard enough to rattle Rodriguez, but that’s not the easiest path to victory here. On the floor, Andrade has a massive advantage, and searching for takedowns should really help minimize the chances of a major Rodriguez connection.

Footwork is an eternal problem for Andrade, as she tends to chase her opponents rather than cut the ring. If she can improve on that issue just a touch and tighten up her hooks a little bit, herding Rodriguez to the cage should be a very manageable goal. Then, Andrade can get her hands on her opponents, and Rodriguez is likely to rack up some airline miles.

How Rodriguez Wins

Rodriguez is one of the best representatives of Muay Thai in women’s MMA. She’s a savage striker who utilizes all eight of the limbs to attack her opposition, and she’s particularly violent from close quarters.

For reasons illustrated above, going into close quarters with Andrade probably isn’t the best tactic here. Deny a takedown and feed her a knee certainly, but then Rodriguez will want to shove Andrade away and return to distance.

Truthfully, the game plan for defeating Andrade at distance was written by Joanna Jedrzejczyk in 2017, and very little has chanced since. It’s not hard to convince Andrade to swing wildly at her target, and her form tends to flail all over the place. If Rodriguez can stick and move effectively with her kicks and lateral movement, Andrade will run directly into counter shots.

Rodriguez has the power to make those shots count.

Andrade vs. Rodriguez Prediction

It’s difficult to have full confidence in Andrade after her tumultuous 2023, but I still like this match up for her.

At 32 years of age, there’s no real evidence that Andrade has declined physically. Her losing streak last year was part circumstance and part fighting elite competition. In the cage, she looked as dangerous (and flawed) as ever, the exact same woman who became a UFC champion in this weight class.

Rodriguez, conversely, is 36 years old. She’s shown no signs of slowing down either, but here recent history doesn’t impress: beating “Karate Hottie” means little at this stage of the game, she lost to Jandiroba and Lemos, and I thought Xianon Yan deserved the nod in their bout. To find a strong performance against top competition, you have to go all the way back to her 2021 win over Mackenzie Dern.

More to the point, Rodriguez isn’t an evasive distance striker. She may try to play that game opposite Andrade, but she typically likes to march forward and build combinations. To win, she’ll be forced to either charge into Andrade’s wheelhouse or execute a non-typical strategy perfectly.

Sounds like a tall order.

Prediction: Andrade victory (-105)

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