UFC 300 Odds, Under Dogs And Best Bets!

Get a detailed breakdown of the betting lines for UFC 300, which is set to hit T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, this weekend (Sat., April 13, 2024), including best bets, underdogs, favorites and much more!

UFC’s biggest blockbuster of 2024 hits the pay-per-view (PPV) airwaves this weekend (Sat., April 13, 2024) when Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill headline UFC 300 inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Other championship action sees Strawweight queenpin, Zhang Weili, duke it out with Yan Xiaonan in UFC’s first all-Chinese title fight and Justin Gaethje put his “BMF” belt on the line against Featherweight great and fellow violence enthusiast, Max Holloway.

It’s a night filled to the brim with talent and a commensurate potential for profit. Let’s dig in …

What Went Wrong at UFC Vegas 90?

Germaine de Randamie

I thought she could stay on her feet and she couldn’t … simple as. The funniest part is that Norma Dumont did so little from the top — including a whopping zero significant strikes in the first round — that de Randamie probably could have won the decision by just chucking elbows off of her back.

Melissa Mullins

She came into the fight compromised. And the way Nora Cornolle tells it, Mullins knew she’d flubbed her weight cut days ahead of time and requested a mutual weight miss. I still think she would have won if she’d actually prepared.

Morgan Charriere

Nobody loses split decisions like this guy — his last five decision defeats all came via either split or majority decision. Dude threw it away in the last two minutes.

Valter Walker

I thought he edged it out, the majority of media members thought he edged it out, but I can’t exactly complain about the decision when he refused to strike from the top.

What Went Right?

Cesar Almeida and Ignacio Bahamondes

Delightfully violent finishes. Well done, lads.

Charlie Campbell and Alex Morono

Significantly uglier than expected, but a win’s a win.

If UFC wants to go nuts with the star power here, it’s only appropriate that we do the same — Hit it!

UFC 300 Odds For The Under Card:

Aleksandar Rakic (-120) vs. Jiri Prochazka (EVEN)

I do not understand the reason(s) Prochazka is the underdog here. Rakic’s best win came over Anthony Smith and he hasn’t competed in almost two years because his knee exploded. Prochazka’s the last guy you want to fight with cage rust and an untrustworthy drivetrain.

Aljamain Sterling (-170) vs. Calvin Kattar (+142)

Two recommendations here: Sterling money line and over 2.5 at -230. As monstrous as Kattar can be in a slugfest, he’s looked worryingly mortal at times against less-tricky strikers than “The Funkmaster.” As for the Over, Sterling has just one non-injury/disqualification finish since 2018 and Kattar went the distance four times in a row before the Arnold Allen debacle.

Kayla Harrison (-425) vs. Holly Holm (+330)

Go nuts on the Harrison line. Holm’s too flat-footed to stay out of the clinch anymore and Harrison has her out-classed there by miles. There’s the weight cut to consider, of course, but Holm’s decline strikes me as a more prominent factor.

Diego Lopes (-142) vs. Sodiq Yusuff (+120)

While Yusuff is extremely dangerous, his refusal to evolve and string of iffy performances have me leaning Lopes’ way. Lopes just has too much momentum and two many weapons for a guy whose game never grew past, “wing head shots until they fall down.” Just don’t go nuts, as Yusuff still hits plenty hard.

Jalin Turner (-238) vs. Renato Moicano (+195)

Absolutely give me Turner here. Moicano doesn’t have the pressure skills to keep Turner on the back foot and he’s hopelessly out-gunned at a distance.

Jessica Andrade (-135) vs. Marina Rodriguez (+114)

Small bet on Andrade. Under ideal circumstances, Andrade wins this every day of the week because Rodriguez is incompetent off of her back and has struggled with crude-but-powerful sluggers like Amanda Lemos and Yan Xiaonan in the past. With the specter of Andrade’s three recent stoppage losses dangling over her head, though, it’s best to keep things modest.

Bobby Green (-180) vs. Jim Miller (+150)

Skip the money line and consider a bit on Over 2.5 at -145. Miller’s current hot streak came against much lesser opponents than Green, but he also hasn’t been stopped in more than five years, so all signs point to Green sharp-shooting his way to a decision.

Deiveson Figueiredo (-310) vs. Cody Garbrandt (+250)

If you’re willing to play margins, Figueiredo -3.5 is a mere -170. His style is custom-made to destroy Garbrandt, who gets hit by virtually every right hand sent his way and lacks the takedowns to put “Deus da Guerra” on his back.

UFC 300 Odds For The Main Card:

Alex Pereira (-135) vs. Jamahal Hill (+114)

Say what you will about Hill’s speed and power, the fact remains that he has no offensive wrestling to speak of and is coming off both a serious injury and a year-long layoff. Even in the best of circumstances, I can count on one hand the number of UFC fighters I’d pick to beat Pereira in a pure striking battle and “Sweet Dreams” is not one of them.

Zhang Weili (-485) vs. Yan Xiaonan (+370)

Use Zhang to beef up your parlays. In fact, use Zhang -5.5 at -225. Zhang’s the more technical striker and an exponentially superior wrestler. And given Yan’s only skill off of her back is surviving, I can’t fathom this being anything other than one-way traffic from the champ. Yan winning a round would be more shocking to me than any outcome on this card save Nickal losing.

Justin Gaethje (-170) vs. Max Holloway (+142)

This seems way too spicy to bet on. There are just too many uncertainties here; whether Gaethje will once again neglect his weapons until the deep waters, whether Holloway’s chin can stand up to the punishment, whether Holloway handles the new weight class better than he did against Poirier, etc. Best to just enjoy this one.

Arman Tsarukyan (-225) vs. Charles Oliveira (+185)

My first instinct was to recommend a bet on Tsarukyan, but I just can’t count Oliveira out, especially not after that flash of vulnerability Tsarukyan showed against Joaquim Silva two fights back.

Bo Nickal (-2100) vs. Cody Brundage (+1100)

There is no accumulator on the planet that merits investing in Nickal. These odds are so wide I’m almost tempted to recommend betting on Brundage just on the off chance that Nickal rolls his ankle or shoots into a guillotine, but then I remember just how bad Brundage is. Just leave it be.

UFC 300 Best Bets:

• Single bet — Jessica Andrade: Bet $60 to make $44.44
• Single bet — Diego Lopes: Bet $60 to make $42.25
• Single bet — Green/Miller Over 2.5: Bet $70 to make $48.27
• Parlay — Jiri Prochazka and Zhang Weili -5.5: Bet $80 to make $151.11
• Parlay — Deiveson Figueiredo -3.5 and Jalin Turner: Bet $70 to make $87.88
• Parlay — Kayla Harrison and Alex Pereira: Bet $80 to make $92.02
• Parlay — Sterling/Kattar Over 2.5 and Zhang Weili -5.5: Bet $40 to make $42.89
• Parlay — Aljamain Sterling and Zhang Weili -5.5: Bet $35 to make $45.29

One way or another, UFC 300 will be one for the history books. See you Saturday, Maniacs.

Initial Investment For 2024: $600
Current Total: $496.06

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 300 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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