Oliveira Vs. Tsarukyan Betting Odds, Breakdown, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight killers Charles Oliveira vs. Arman Tsarukyan will go to war this weekend (Sat., April 13, 2024) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC 300.

Oliveira is still in his prime. The former champion demolished Beneil Dariush in his most recent appearance (watch it), earning a 155-pound title shot, but sacrificing the opportunity when a last-second cut derailed his would-be UFC 294 rematch versus Islam Makhachev. Now, he’ll have to take on a serious challenge in rising star Tsarukyan, who also smashed Dariush in his last bout. Like “Do Bronx,” Tsarukyan has prior history with the champion, and he’s hoping to secure the first title shot of his UFC career.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Oliveira Vs. Tsarukyan Betting Odds

• Charles Oliveira victory: +170
• Charles Oliveira via TKO/KO/DQ: +800
• Charles Oliveira via submission: +400
• Charles Oliveira via decision: +750
• Arman Tsarukyan victory: -235
• Arman Tsarukyan via TKO/KO/DQ: +120
• Arman Tsarukyan via submission: +800
• Arman Tsarukyan via decision: +320
• Draw: +5000
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Oliveira Wins

Oliveira is hands-down the greatest finisher in UFC history. He didn’t develop knockout power or true confidence until later in his career, which proved to be the missing elements in making him a championship fighter.

Oliveira has fought plenty of opponents in the mold of Tsarukyan. He’s an incredibly athletic wrestler with power in his hands — a blue chip prospect, sure, but not overly unique in the grand scheme of things. “Do Bronx” has fought and beat men like him before.

To win this fight, Oliveira has to pressure without getting sloppy (which is what happened against Makhachev). The simple fact of the matter is that Tsarukyan’s defense in the pocket isn’t great, while Oliveira has lead in his fists. If the two trade for any length of time, I would expect an Oliveira left hook to make an impact sooner than later.

The wrestling is an interesting issue as well. Tsarukyan is a great wrestler, certainly capable of taking Oliveira down with some effort. If that happens, Oliveira should make it a point to threaten submissions and use those threats to stand or sweep. Tsarukyan is an athlete who explodes then has to recover, so if he expends a lot of energy to score a takedown and doesn’t actually secure position, Oliveira will have a window to really attack.

How Tsarukyan Wins

Tsarukyan is about as physically gifted as a fighter can be. He’s got great explosiveness, a great gas tank, and serious size for the 155-pound division. Wrestling and ground striking is his forte, but Tsarukyan has a slick kicking game and power in his hands to boot.

Only one man has defeated Oliveira in the last six years: Makhachev. It makes sense, then, that Tsarukyan should watch that fight closely and look to replicate Makhachev’s success, particularly since he shares several skills with the champion.

There’s something of a misconception about why Makhachev won that bout: it wasn’t really the wrestling. Oliveira actually grappled with Makhachev without issue in round one and stopped a couple takedowns, too. In fact, it was Makhachev’s counter striking and patience that won the fight: he kicked, countered and moved laterally until Oliveira ran himself into a heavy shot, then Makhachev’s grappling took over the fight.

Tsarukyan should be looking to do the same. Whether he intends to capitalize with double legs or counter punches, Tsarukyan has to move and use his kicking game, allowing Oliveira’s aggression to provide his opportunities.

Oliveira vs. Tsarukyan Prediction

Y’all (meaning the odds makers) must’ve forgot. Oliveira is one of the baddest Lightweights of all time, and these betting odds are downright disrespectful.

As explained above, Tsarukyan’s keys to victory involve patience and defense — when have those ever been his strong suit? Makhachev was one of the least-hit fighters in UFC history when he managed to diffuse Oliveira’s offense charges … and he still took some clean shots. I don’t know that Tsarukyan has the range control and comfort in exchanges necessary to fully copy that gameplan even if it’s in his best interest.

More likely, Tsarukyan tries to be evasive for a bit and is forced to meet fire with fire. When that happens, Oliveira is going to hit him, and I expect desperation wrestling from Armenian talent.

Is there anyone better at capitalizing on a desperate opponent?

Prediction: Oliveira via knockout (+800)

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 300 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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