Weili Vs. Yan Betting Odds, Breakdown, Prediction

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Strawweight elites Zhang Weili vs. Xiaonan Yan will collide this weekend (Sat., April 13, 2024) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC 300.

It really doesn’t feel like Weili is going anywhere anytime soon. “Magnum” was already a champion when she lost twice to Rose Namajunas, but those defeats saw her level up. She’s now better than ever, entering her third title defense on the heels of three utterly dominant victories. Yan, meanwhile, has earned the opportunity to shock the world. The Chinese kickboxer has shored up the holes in her defensive wrestling, allowing her to make the most of her technical kickboxing game. Her last performance was a statement-making knockout win over Jessica Andrade, the type of brutal victory that inspires at least a little hope that an upset is possible.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Weili Vs. Yan Betting Odds

• Zhang Weili victory: -540
• Zhang Weili via TKO/KO/DQ: +130
• Zhang Weili via submission: +500
• Zhang Weili via decision: +175
• Xiaonan Yan victory: +340
• Xiaonan Yan via TKO/KO/DQ: +1200
• Xiaonan Yan via submission: +3000
• Xiaonan Yan via decision: +600
• Draw: +5000
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Weili Wins

Weili is simply another level of athlete from just about everyone else in her division. She hits seriously hard and has immense strength in wrestling exchanges, which some technical fine-tuning has turned into a massive weapon for “Magnum.”

Weili can compete with her opponent everywhere, but why not take the fight where Yan doesn’t want to go? The only way Yan wins this fight is on the feet. She’s not going to submit Weili from her back!

Both of these kickboxers like to do their work from the edge of their kicking range, where they can fire stiff counter shots. Weili, however, is superior at bursting forward with powerful combinations. If she were to earn Yan’s respect with her hands then change levels into a takedown, that’s going to be a difficult combination to stop.

As she demonstrated in her last fight, Weili can do major damage from top position, too.

How Yan Wins

Yan is building an argument as Strawweight’s most technical kickboxer. She manages distance very precisely, always poking at her opponents from range and trying to convince them to walk into a nasty straight counter.

That punch was hard enough to sleep Andrade, and it can hurt Weili too. If — and that’s a big if — Yan can shut down her opponent’s wrestling attack, this is a very winnable fight for her. On the feet, the two play similar games, but the battle will be Yan’s sharper, crisper punches vs. Weili’s raw power and speed.

The silver lining to facing a mega athlete like Weili is that if Yan manages to time her entrance, Weili is providing a ton of force for the ensuing collision. I’d like to see Yan moving and kicking a lot to bait aggression from Weili. In general, she’s going to want a slightly further distance than Weili, so footwork and avoiding the fence will be critical.

Weili doesn’t hold back when she fires her counters. If Yan can touch, pull back, and then plant with a big counter shot, there’s a real chance she can hurt the champion.

Weili Vs. Yan Prediction

The path to victory is there for Yan. I’m of the opinion that the odds are far too long given the similar style clash. There’s a real chance we end up getting a somewhat muted kickboxing match where the two trade side kicks for five rounds, and then who knows what the judges do.

Misgivings aside, it’s just too difficult to bet against Weili at the height of her powers. Yan has small technical edges that could pay off if she plays her hand perfectly. Weili has a massive edge in athleticism that can bail her out of bad spots or end the fight in an instant.

One of those factors is much more compelling than the other.

Prediction: Zhang Weili via decision (+175)

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