UFC 301 Odds: ‘Prelims’ Props And More!

UFC 301’s Drakkar Klose having a good think… hopefully not about betting. | Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images

Let’s look over UFC 301’s “Prelims” undercard bouts and the interesting wagers they provide … UFC 301 g…


UFC 301’s Drakkar Klose.
UFC 301’s Drakkar Klose having a good think… hopefully not about betting. | Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images

Let’s look over UFC 301’s “Prelims” undercard bouts and the interesting wagers they provide …

UFC 301 goes down this Saturday night (May 4, 2024) inside Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event sees Flyweight champion, Alexandre Pantoja, defending his title against relative newcomer, Steve Erceg. UFC 301’s co-main event features UFC Hall of Famer and former Featherweight champion, Jose Aldo, coming out of retirement (as fighters are wont to do) to take on the dangerous Jonathan Martinez (see things get chippy between these two here).

Earlier this week, we covered all the money line odds available for UFC 301, but now it’s time to focus in on the “Prelims” undercard portion of the card. The “Prelims” — like the rest of the card — feature a “Brazil vs. The World” theme. In most cases, the Brazilian fighters are favorites. Nearly all the bouts have pretty lopsided odds, leading to some MMA Maniacs to suggest there’s little value on this card.

However, let’s take a deep dive on UFC 301’s “Prelims” and see if anything stands out:

UFC 301 Late ‘Prelims’ Under Card Money Line Odds

Jack Shore (+140) vs. Joanderson Brito (-166)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+320) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (-410)
Elves Brener (+205) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-250)
Jean Silva (-120) vs. William Gomis (+100)

UFC 301 Early ‘Prelims’ Under Card Money Line Odds

Joaquim Silva (+150) vs. Drakkar Klose (-180)
Mauricio Ruffy (-218) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+180)
Dione Barbosa (-238) vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (+195)
Ismael Bonfim (-520) vs. Vinc Pichel (+390)
Alessandro Costa (-130) vs. Kevin Borjas (+110)

UFC 301 ‘Prelims’ Line Movement

UFC 301’s Jamie Mullarkey.
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
UFC 301’s Jamie Mullarkey.

We are going to breakdown line movements across the whole card in much more detail tomorrow right here. But, for now, there’s been some interesting moves involving UFC 301’s “Prelims” undercard:

  • Drakkar Klose’s odds to beat Joaquim Silva have shortened from -162 to -180 in the last few days. Silva’s price has risen from +130 to +150.
  • Jamie Mullarkey’s odds are the most turbulent on the entire card. He was a -180 favorite when his fight with Mauricio Ruffy was announced and now he’s a +180 underdog (increasing from a +142 dog on Monday). Significant money must be coming in on Ruffy, who is currently a -218 favorite.
  • William Gomis — one of my favorite dogs on the card — has seen his odds move from +135 to +100 in the past few days.
  • Ernesta Kareckaite’s odds have risen from +170 to +195 in the last few days.
UFC 301’s Dione Barbosa going for the sub against Rainn Guerrero in the UFC APEX.
Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
UFC 301’s Dione Barbosa going for the sub against Rainn Guerrero in the UFC APEX.

UFC 301 ‘Prelims’ Prop Bets

At this point in the week, DraftKings have hit us with hundreds of prop bets for this international PPV card. Here are some interesting picks involving Saturday’s undercard:

Dione Barbosa to defeat Ernesta Kareckaite via submission (+225)

Barbosa has won half her six professional fights submission and earned her UFC contract with an armbar finish over Rainn Guerrero on Contender Series last year. Barbosa is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black-belt who was on the Brazilian Judo team for the Olympics. Kareckaite, meanwhile, is primarily a stand-up fighter, hence her “Heavy Hands” nickname. She fights out of Lithuania, where I imagine it’s difficult to get top grappling exposure. She also has very long arms, which will help her when standing, but could be a liability on the ground (against someone well-versed in gobbling up limbs).

UFC 301’s Mauricio Ruffy trading blows with Raimond Magomedaliev on the Contender Series.
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
UFC 301’s Mauricio Ruffy trading blows with Raimond Magomedaliev on the Contender Series.

Jamie Mullarkey to defeat Mauricio Ruffy via KO/TKO (+600)

Mullarkey is an underdog here, despite being listed as a favorite when this fight was first announced. Ruffy is a 30-year-old Contender Series graduate who has only fought on the Brazilian regional scene. His one loss is a technical knockout to Manoel Sousa in 2019 (see that below). Ruffy likes to get into fire fights, with his hands down low. Mullarkey will give him a brawl if he wants one and who’s to say Mullarkey (with far more Octagon-level experience) can’t find his chin?

UFC 301’s Karolina Kowalkiewicz getting the nod versus Diana Belbita.
Photo by Al Powers/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
UFC 301’s Karolina Kowalkiewicz getting the nod versus Diana Belbita.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz to defeat Iasmin Lucindo via decision (+450)

If you like Kowalkiewicz as an underdog here — against a fighter young enough to be her daughter — then you might as well take her to win via decision. Kowalkiewicz has won 12 of her 16 professional wins by decision. The first three finishes of her career all came during her first five bouts between 2012 and 2014. The only other finish she has is a submission over a 37-year-old Felice Herrig in 2022 (watch it here). Lucindo is getting a lot of respect here despite having only a 15-5 record and holding losses to the middling Gabriella Fernandes and Invicta washout Barbara Acioly.

UFC Fight Night: Gomis v Errens
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
UFC 301’s William Gomis after his majority decision win over Jarno Errens.

Jean Silva vs. William Gomis to be won via split/majority decision (+350)

I think this is a really close fight and I think both men will be able to avoid getting finished. So, I believe there is a very good chance this goes to the judges and that those judges have a hard time figuring out who won (hometown cooking aside). Also, Gomis’ last two decisions have been a split (vs. Francis Marshall) and a majority (vs. Jarno Errens). Silva has only heard the judges’ decision once, but Gomis represents a real step up in competition for him.

UFC 301’s Ismael Bonfim pouring the pressure on Terrance McKinney the last time he fought in Rio.
Photo by Buda Mendes/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
UFC 301’s Ismael Bonfim pouring the pressure on Terrance McKinney the last time he fought in Rio.

Ismael Bonfim vs. Vinc Pichel to end in the 1st 60 seconds of Round 1 (+1400)

Here’s the “Hail Mary” for the week. I’m thinking there’s a chance Bonfim takes out Pichel in one minute or less. He’s the first relatively recognizable Brazilian talent on the card, so the crowd should be really hot for him (just like they were when he knocked out Terrance McKinney with a flying knee — watch it). Maybe he feeds off the crowd again on Saturday and blitzes away his 41-year-old opponent. Bonfim has two sub-minute wins in his career, though one was in 2013 and the other was due to an injury. In 2020, he scored a technical knockout win in 1:12 and a year before that he got an anaconda choke win in 1:39.

Poll Time

Which of these UFC 301 “Prelims” props do you like the most? Let us know what other “Prelims” props have caught your attention in the comments below.

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 301 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 301: “Pantoja vs. Erceg” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.