Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will once again venture away from the familiarity of its APEX facility and ship its cast and crew across the country for the upcoming UFC St. Louis fight card, locked and loaded for tomorrow night (Sat., May 11, 2024) from inside Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri, featuring a 265-pound headliner between power-punching heavyweight hurter Derrick Lewis and fast-rising Brazilian sensation Rodrigo Nascimento.
UFC St. Louis airs on both ESPN and ESPN+ starting at 4 p.m. ET.
Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the welterweight contest between hometown hero Joaquin Buckley and international superstar Nursulton Ruziboev, check out Andrew Richardson’s UFC St. Louis main card breakdown here. For the latest “Almeida vs. Lewis” odds and betting lines courtesy of our fiscal friends over at Draft Kings have a look at Tim Bissell’s expert analysis right here.
Let’s get down to business.
265 lbs.: Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis
Record: 27-12, 1 NC | Age: 39 | Betting line: -148
Wins: 22 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 7 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 6’3“ | Reach: 79” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.43 | Striking accuracy: 50%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.48 | Striking Defense: 40%
Takedown Average: 0.53 (26% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 53%
Current Ranking: No. 12 | Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Jailton Almeida
Rodrigo “Yogi Bear” Nascimento
Record: 11-1, 1 NC | Age: 31 | Betting line: +124
Wins: 2 KO/TKO, 6 SUB, 3 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 6’2“ | Reach: 80” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.31 | Striking accuracy: 48%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.76 | Striking Defense: 43%
Takedown Average: 1.20 (33% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 77%
Current Ranking: No. 15 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Don’Tale Mayes
Derrick Lewis is back for his twelfth main event since late 2016 and at this point, he’s working off his name identity, as well as the strength of his brand, because “The Black Beast” is well into double digits in the loss column and has dropped five of his last seven. Whether he’s just old and broken down or simply cashing those main event paychecks is debatable, but the hard-hitting Texan was savvy enough to curate a personality endearing to MMA fans, which in turn, resulted in job security. Setting the UFC record for knockouts certainly didn’t hurt his cause, but I don’t think anyone has Lewis on their championship bingo card for 2024 and beyond.
That ship sailed at UFC 230.
Lewis is a large, agile heavyweight with decent offensive wrestling but can easily be overwhelmed by better wrestlers, as we saw in his Magikarp defense against Jailton Almeida last year in Sao Paulo. “The Black Beast” will blame the short notice nature of that fight but let’s face it, the Brazilian’s style was tailor-made for a bricklayer like Lewis. I’m pretty confident that Nascimento will not be able to replicate the performance of “Malhadinho” and I do not have high hopes for a fighter who was knocked silly by the likes of Chris Daukaus.
“I’m more excited about this fight than any other fight I’ve ever had,” Lewis said at the UFC St. Louis media day. “I trained my butt off for this one and I don’t have no injuries coming into this fight. I’m feeling healthy. I’m less than 10 pounds away from making my weight already. I’m feeling great right now. I actually really feel like this is my prime. I want to do something special. I’ve been working on it on my in my garage. My coach don’t know nothing about this. So what I’m about to throw out the first minute of my fight, my coach don’t have nothing to do with it. So if you all see me throw something crazy, just know it wasn’t my coaches idea. It’s my idea. That’s how good I’m feeling right now.”
Nascimento subbed his way onto the UFC roster with an impressive performance against Michal Martinek as part of Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in summer 2019. In the nearly five years that followed, “Yogi Bear” has put together a 4-1 record with one “No Contest” opposite Alan Baudot, a fight that was overturned when Nascimento flunked a drug test. I’m also not breaking out the party hats for split decision victories over Tanner Boser and Ilir Latifi, at least as they pertain to his Lewis scouting report. The Brazilian only has two knockouts in 11 wins and has no business trying to stand and trade with “The Black Beast,” so expect those takedowns to come early and often.
“I have many ways to beat him,” Nascimento said at the UFC St. Louis media day. “Putting him on the ground is just one more way. I can strike, I can knock him out. I can finish him, or I can fight all five rounds. For sure, he has a big name. He has a good name and good hype on him, but after this Saturday, everyone is going to know my name because I will beat him.”
Most of Rodrigo’s finishes came on the local circuit, back when “Yogi Bear” was fighting tomato cans like Fabio Moreira, who was lighting up the regional scene with his 2-8 record. Or the 0-1 Cicero Augusto, who got KTFO in some grimy gymnasium in Belo Horizonte and never fought again. Equally concerning is Nascimento’s takedown accuracy, which stands at just 33 percent, which means Lewis — according to the numbers — is likely to shuck two out of every three takedowns. That’s bad news for an opponent trying to stay alive against a bomb dropper who routinely cuts weight to make the heavyweight limit.
Prediction: Lewis def. Nascimento by knockout
170 lbs.: Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev
Joaquin “New Mansa” Buckley
Record: 18-6 | Age: 30 | Betting line: -166
Wins: 13 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 5 DEC | Losses: 4 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 5’10“ | Reach: 76” | Stance: Southpaw
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.06 | Striking accuracy: 34%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.26 | Striking Defense: 58%
Takedown Average: 1.40 (36% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 69%
Current Ranking: No. 12 | Last fight: Technical knockout win over Vicente Luque
Nursulton “Black” Ruziboev
Record: 34-8-2, 2 NC | Age: 30 | Betting line: +140
Wins: 12 KO/TKO, 20 SUB, 2 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 6 DEC
Height: 6’5“ | Reach: 76” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.93 | Striking accuracy: 43%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 0.87 | Striking Defense: 80%
Takedown Average: 3.27 (100% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 0%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Technical knockout win over Sedriques Dumas
Joaquin Buckley is from St. Louis and when the promotion announced its return to his home city, “New Mansa” started campaigning for a spot in the main event. He didn’t get it, but matchmakers were still able to work him into the co-headlining slot, which comes just a few weeks after his second-round knockout win over the reanimated corpse of Vicente Luque. No disrespect to Buckley, who fought hard and won, but any fighter who needs a year off to recover from brain damage should not be fighting. Stopping “The Silent Assassin” pushed Buckley to 8-4 under the UFC banner and 3-0 over the last year, dating back to his knockout loss to middleweight “Action Man” Chris Curtis. “New Mansa” is a solid offensive wrestler but has yet to score a submission in 24 professional fights and I doubt that streak will end at UFC St. Louis, particularly against an opponent boasting double digit submission wins. Besides, when you can strike with the speed and power of Buckley, you’re better off on the feet anyway.
“With Nursulton, I don’t know if he’s gonna make the weight, but it don’t even matter,” Buckley said at the UFC St. Louis media day. “I’ve already adjusted my mind set that no matter what he steps from the scale as, as long as I’ve got an opponent, we’re good. I’m feeling to knock this boy out. Right now having the energy of my hometown, having my family out watching me, and it’s been years since they watched me live last time I fought in St. Louis for Bellator back in the day. I feel like now that I get the opportunity to fight in my city, I’ve got to turn up. I’ve got to do the most — what people expect, right? They want that viral moment, and I feel like we’re gonna get that.”
Nursulton Ruziboev has been with the promotion for less than a year but has already made an immediate impact, racking up back-to-back knockout victories over former “Contender Series” standout Brunno Ferreira and the criminally overrated (literally) Sedriques Dumas. You may remember Dumas (pronounced “dumbass”) as the middleweight who demanded a rematch after losing decisively to Josh Fremd because it was his “day off.” Anyway, Ruziboev has nearly 50 fights under his belt and has been competing for nearly a decade against varying levels of competition. It’s hard to know how the cut down to welterweight will affect his performance, but I can’t imagine it will be a fun trip south for a combatant who stands 6’5” tall and typically competes at 185 pounds. Regardless, Buckley — also a former middleweight — could be seen as “Black’s” toughest test to date. I don’t know why his nickname is “Black” and I’m not Googling it because the company monitors my browser activity and who knows how Google will interpret my search request.
I once searched for “PRIDE slam” expecting “Rampage” results and boy did I regret it.
“He talks too much,” Ruziboev said at the UFC St. Louis media day. “He’s always done that. I don’t understand everything that he says because English is still hard for me, but I’ve seen it before in videos. Maybe this is the way for him to kind of show his insecurity. Maybe he talks so much because he’s trying to show me he’s afraid of me. I’ve fought a lot in enemy territory, so it doesn’t really matter to me because inside the Octagon, it’s going to just be me and him. Everybody is going to be rooting for him, but he’s going to be the only one standing in front of me, so it’s not going to be a problem for me whatsoever.”
Buckley is a slight betting favorite because he’s the proven commodity. I also have to imagine he’ll be carrying a little extra motivation from competing in front of his hometown fans. I just have trouble getting past his inconsistency, as well as his habit of making boneheaded decisions inside the cage. Expect a lot of razzle-dazzle for as long as this fight remains on the feet, but sooner or later Ruziboev is going to get Buckley to the floor and announce his arrival as a major player in the welterweight Top 15.
Prediction: Ruziboev def. Buckley by submission
Remember, the rest of the UFC St. Louis main card predictions are RIGHT HERE.
MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC St. Louis fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ preliminary card bouts at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the ESPN/ESPN+ main card start time at 7 p.m. ET.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC St. Louis news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archives here and here. For the updated and finalized “Lewis vs. Nascimento” fight card and ESPN/ESPN+ lineup click here.