UFC Louisville: Best Betting Props, Parlays And Picks

UFC Louisville comes at us this weekend (Sat., June 8, 2024) with former title challenger Jared Cannonier meeting Nassourdine Imavov in the main event. Checkout all the odds right here …

UFC Louisville goes down this weekend (Sat., June 8, 2024) inside KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky. The main event has former Middleweight title challenger, Jared Cannonier, meeting rising French contender, Nassourdine Imavov, in a meaningful 185-pound showdown. Both men are coming off good wins (Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze, respectively) and each are hoping they can knock off the other to steal a step toward a future title shot.

The rest of the card is … well, let’s just say we’ve got a lot of folks out there who haven’t earned Wikipedia pages yet. The co-main is former “almost beat Jon Jones” guy, Dominick Reyes. He’s fighting Dustin Jacoby and hoping to avoid a rarely-seen fifth loss in a row in UFC. Alleged super prospect, Raul Rosas Jr., is on the card, too. He’s facing former The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) winner, Ricky Turcios.

The “Prelims” are headlined by what should be a very good fight between Thiago Moises vs. Ludovit Klein. We’ve also got Andrea Lee vs. Montana De La Rosa and Brad Katona vs. Jesse Butler.

The story of this card is that there are lots of fighters in desperate need of a win here and, for a change, we have lots of close fights, too (at least as far as betting lines are concerned). Let’s check out those money lines now and see where the value is …

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

UFC Louisville Main Card Money Line Odds

Jared Cannonier (+102) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (-122)

Cannonier heads to Kentucky off the back of some very good wins. Last time out he shut out the aforementioned Vettori and, before that, he took a somewhat contentious split decision over Sean Strickland (who recently reminded us how difficult he is to beat — despite what a “lunatic” judge might think). Cannonier has only lost twice since moving down to Middleweight in 2018. Those losses came to Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker (both via unanimous decision). That’s not bad. However, how much of those recent achievements are out-weighed by the fact Cannonier turned 40 this year?

Imavov has had far less exposure to elite UFC fighters than Cannonier has had. Though, he has faced Strickland, losing a unanimous decision to him in his main event debut last year. Since then, Imavov fought to a “No Contest” with Chris Curtis (after this accidental clash of heads) last June and then beat Roman Dolidze in March.

When you look at the tale of the tape, the age gap is pretty glaring, with Imavov at 28-years-old. Imavov is taller than Cannonier, but he’s giving up two inches of reach to “The Killa Gorilla.” They have pretty similar stats when it comes to strikes landed, striking accuracy and striking defense. The biggest variance is in significant strikes absorbed per minute, with Cannonier absorbing 4.13 versus Imavov’s 3.26. But, I would chalk this up to Cannonier having fought the best of his division.

When it comes to takedowns, Imavov tries them more often, but Cannonier is more successful with them. Imavov’s takedown defense is a little better than Cannonier’s and he will attempt 1.5 subs per 15 minutes. Cannonier is yet to attempt a submission in his 16-fight UFC career.

I don’t love that Cannonier is still competing at age 40. And I respect the idea that you just shouldn’t bet on anyone past a certain age when it comes to fighting. However, Imavov hasn’t exactly shown himself to be a deadly prospect with a ton of upside. Personally, I think Cannonier will be able to pressure Imavov and get to his chin. I don’t think he has the power to stop Imavov at this stage of his career, but he will probably be strong enough to control clinches and get a takedown here and there on route to a decision victory.

Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC

Dominick Reyes (+190) vs. Dustin Jacoby (-230)

Oh boy, Reyes’ recent form is not for the faint of heart. Since his controversial unanimous decision loss to Jon Jones at UFC 247 in 2020, Reyes has lost three straight, all by (technical) knockout. Those losses came to former champs Jan Blachowicz and Jiri Prochazka and then the very average Ryan Spann. That Spann loss saw Reyes knocked out cold with a jab (watch it here). Given the damage he’s taken in the last few years, it feels like he’s needed someone close to him to pull him aside and let him know it’s time to hang them up. But this is MMA and this rarely happens until it has to. So, Reyes will meet Dustin Jacoby, a former kickboxer who has a decent amount TKOs in his career (most recently he sparked Kennedy Nzechukwu — check it out here).

Jacoby has washed out as an interesting mixed martial arts (MMA) prospect, thanks to decision losses to Khalil Rountree Jr. and Alonzo Menifield. I think he’s a deserving favorite in this fight, though. Reyes won’t have any height or reach advantage against Jacoby and his porous striking defense will leave him open to a lot of what Jacoby can throw at him. I have a feeling Jacoby might decide to chew up Reyes’ legs early on before he goes head hunting.

I can see Jacoby finishing Reyes or taking him to a ho-hum decision. I just can’t believe in Reyes being able to get through a whole fight and look good doing it. I hope he proves me wrong, though.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Raul Rosas Jr. (-230) vs. Ricky Turcios (+190)

The bloom is off the rose a little bit with Rosas Jr. and that’s not entirely his fault. The matchmakers let him down with the Christian Rodriguez fight last year. Rodriguez was far too close to his skill level to aid in any star-building narratives like we’ve seen around Bo Nickal’s rise. After rebounding with a technical knockout win over Terrance Mitchell (check it out here), Rosas Jr. was matched with Ricky Turcios (which feels appropriate). However, that fight fell through on fight night due to illness on the part of Rosas Jr. It’s taken four months for this fight to be booked again and attention on Rosas has seemed to ebb away since then. Maybe that’s a good thing for the 19-year-old, though.

Turcios won TUF in 2021, but what does that even mean anymore? Since then, he’s only fought twice. Both bouts — a unanimous decision loss to Aiemann Zahabi and a split decision win over Kevin Natividad — were mostly unwatchable.

Turcios needs to win here to prove he has any relevancy in the sport, let alone the Bantamweight division. To win he’ll have to do it on the feet. However, what we’ve seen from him lately is a hesitance to pull the trigger and a lack of pop when he does. If he can’t make Rosas Jr. respect his striking, then I think we’re going to see a lot of this fight on the mat and that’s where Rosas Jr. is most likely to get a win.

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Brunno Ferreira (-270) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+220)

“The Hulk” Brunno Ferreira is a pretty healthy favorite in this bout. He’s 11-1 and coming off of his demolition of Phil Hawes (see that nasty stoppage here). Prior to that, he was stopped by recent headliner Nursulton Ruziboev. The lanky Ruziboev made his freakish height and reach count against Ferreira. Ferreira must have learned from the encounter, though, beating Hawes despite Hawes’ reach being an inch longer than Ruziboev’s. Stoltzfus has a little more size on Ferreira, but that’s clearly not a factor for the oddsmakers here. Ferreira also has a knockout win over “Robocop” Gregory Rodrigues (watch it here).

They are probably mostly looking at Ferreira’s powerful volume striking, which he mixes with enough wrestling/grappling to keep his opponents honest.

Stoltzfus has been stopped with punches and submissions in his seven-fight UFC career. I don’t think he will have the chin needed to stand up to Ferreira here and if Stoltzfus manages to get the fight to the ground (Ferreira has a 66 percent takedown defense). I don’t think things will get much easier for him. I think Ferreira winning might be the bedrock for a lot of parlays at UFC Louisville.

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Julian Marquez (-135) vs. Zach Reese (+114)

Remember Julian Marquez? He burst onto the scene with an epic head kick knockout over Phil Hawes on the first season of Contender Series (see it here). At the time, it felt like Hawes was the kind of super prospect that show was being built around.

Since then, though, things haven’t gone well for Marquez. And I’m not just talking about his cringey attempts to chat up Miley Cyrus. He’s 3-3 in UFC with just six fights since 2017. He lost his last two bouts after getting badly beaten up by Gregory Rodrigues and then Marc-Andre Barriault.

He’s a slight favorite here, though, as he meets the largely unknown Zach Reese. Reese is also a Contender Series product. He won with an armbar against Eli Aranov last year. In his first proper UFC bout he was slammed out by Cody Brundage (check it out here).

So, who do you take here? The spent force who showed he might have been something special a very long time ago? Or, a fighter who is yet to prove he’s more than a regional talent?

It’s a toss up for me and one I would stay away from. If there a gun to my head, I would go with Marquez, because I trust his striking advantage more than I do Reese’s apparent ground advantage.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Miguel Baeza (-192) vs. Punahele Soriano (+160)

Miguel Baeza and Punahele Soriano are two more guys on this card who really need a win. Baeza — a physical specimen who earned a lot of hype with a knockout over Matt Brown in 2020 (see it here) — has lost three straight fights with the last two being brutal technical knockouts. Soriano earned some hype, too, when he finished the previously undefeated Dusko Todorovic in 2021 (see it here). Since then, he’s gone 1-4 in UFC and is coming off a submission loss to Dustin Stoltzfus, which followed a technical knockout loss to Roman Kopylov.

These recent losses have shown that both guys have a lot of holes in their games and that they have likely reached their ceilings (both are 31-years-old). This fight could either be a war or it could be won by the first guy to land something clean. It’s another pick ‘em that I personally wouldn’t go near.

If forced to make a pick, I’d go with Soriano based on his power punching and Baeza’s two-year layoff.

UFC Louisville ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

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Thiago Moises (+105) vs. Ludovit Klein (-125)

This could be a really fun fight. And it’s another pick ‘em!

Thiago Moises has had some tough match-ups in his UFC career, losing to Islam Makhachev in a main event in 2021 and then being TKO’d by Joel Alvarez (see that here). Last year, he was matched with Benoit Saint-Denis and lost by second round technical knockout. Around those losses he managed submission wins over Christos Giagos and Melquizael Costa. Last time out, he beat Mitch Ramirez with leg kicks, which is always fun. Earlier in his UFC career he got wins over Alexander Hernandez, Bobby Green and Michael Johnson. His proper UFC debut came in 2018 with a unanimous decision loss to Beneil Dariush. I think most can agree the strength of Moises’ schedule is beyond reproach.

Ludovit Klein has not faced a similar caliber of fighters as Moises has. His toughest test was against Nate Landwehr, which resulted in him being on the wrong end of an anaconda choke (see that here). Since that loss, Klein has managed to win four straight, though only the most recent was a finish — a front kick versus the +600 A.J. Cunningham who was coming in on short notice.

I’m siding with Moises in this fight for his experience and how battle tested he is. Klein is probably on a high with his current win streak, but I think Moises will be able to bring him back down to earth. Moises should be able to match him on the feet and not get hurt there and then have a huge advantage on the ground.

Charles Radtke (+195) vs. Carlos Prates (-238)

Thankfully, I don’t have to pay money to Charles Radkte to write about him here. He’s a big underdog against Carlos Prates, who has knocked out Mitch Ramirez and Trevin Giles (see it here) with his straight left punch in his first two Octagon appearances. Prates was a terror in Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) before getting to UFC. He’s on the wrong side of 30 now, but the oddsmakers still think “The Nightmare” has a good chance of putting “Chuck Buffalo’ to sleep. He won his last two fights as a -225 favorite.

Radkte KO’d Gilbert Urbina last time out as a +165 dog. But I think he’ll struggle to keep up with Prates’ brutally effective Muay Thai (something he tested against Dave Leduc as a 19-year-old in a fight that he lost by decision). Prates also has a six inch reach advantage.

Andrea Lee (-148) vs. Montana De La Rosa (+124)

Two more fighters in desperate needs of a win and another pick ‘em. Montana De La Rosa has lost three straight, though two of those were to elite opposition (Tatiana Suarez and Maycee Barber). Andrea Lee has lost four straight. Her most recent loss was a decision to Miranda Maverick in February. Invicta is calling for the loser of this one (and maybe the winner, too).

Both women are decision machines. This might be a good fight for the split decision prop bet. If someone were to break a stalemate between the two, though, I’d fancy Montana De La Rosa to do something on the ground. If she can’t get the fight there, though, Lee’s volume might impress enough of the judges for the win.

Brad Katona (-600) vs. Jesse Butler (+440)

Former TUF winner, Brad Katona (wow they really promote these guys, huh?) is the biggest favorite on the card. He is a whopping -600 against Jesse Butler. All we’ve seen from Butler is a 23 second knockout loss to Jim Miller as a super short notice replacement (see it here). Katona is 1-1 since coming off his second stint on TUF. He beat Cody Gibson in the finale of that show last August and then lost to Garret Armfield in January (as a -225 favorite).

Butler is cutting down to Bantamweight for the first time in his career here. That might explain the huge odds on him. In a “Prelims” fight, +440 is always going to be tempting, but buyer beware.

John Castaneda (-102) vs. Daniel Marcos (-118)

Another pick ‘em! John Castaneda has been inconsistent in his UFC career thus far, but he is coming off back-to-back wins for the first time since he was a Combate headliner. He beat Kang Kyung Ho last time out. Daniel Marcos is undefeated (15-0), though he’s only fought three times outside of his hometown promotion in Peru. I’d favor Castaneda’s experience in this one.

Eduarda Moura (-162) vs. Denise Gomes (+136)

Moura has looked good so far in her career. She’s perfect (10-0) with just one decision win. In her proper UFC debut in Nov. 2023, she beat Montserrat Ruiz via technical knockout (as a -625 favorite who missed weight). Denise Gomes is 8-3 with six (technical) knockout finishes. She’s stopped Bruna Brasil and Yazmin Jauregui (in just 20 seconds) so far. Feels like a waste putting these two against each other so early in their careers.

I could go either way on this one, but I like Moura’s chances of taking down the more striking dominant Gomes and finding a way to win there.

Cody Stamman (+220) vs. Taylor Lapilus (-270)

What did Cody Stamann do to piss off UFC? He’s gone from fighting Said Nurmagomedov on the main card of UFC 270 to now fighting the second fight of UFC Louisville within two years. Stamann is a pretty sturdy vet at Bantamweight and has fought a who’s who (Merab Dvalishvilli, Song Yadong, Aljimain Sterling). He’s not won any of those big fights. And the bookies don’t think he’ll win here, either. Taylor Lapilus lost to Farid Basharat in January, to give him a 1-1 record under the bright lights.

I’m surprised to see Stamman as such a big underdog here, given his wrestling advantage over Lapilus. Lapilus is the better striker and has a nine inch reach advantage, but Stamann has gotten by lankier opponents in the past. Could be some value on Stamann here.

Rayanne Dos Santos (-285) vs. Puja Tomar (+230)

Tomar has come toUFC after having had some pretty big fights in Asia. She was a sacrificial lamb in ONE, losing to Stamp Fairtex in 2020. She’s also had some fights in India’s interesting SFL promotion. More recently, she was a champion in Matrix Fight League, beating Bi Nguyen, also in her native India. Rayanne dos Santos is a submission specialist who beat Jil DeCoursey for the Invicta Atomweight title last year. She lost her UFC debut against Talita Alencar in Dec. 2023.

Both these women might be too small for the Strawweight division. In this fight, though, the bookies believe dos Santos will be able to get Tomar down and expose her to a level of grappling she’s not used to.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

UFC Louisville Prop Bets And Parlays

Here’s a couple of things that look interesting for this Saturday’s UFC Louisville card …

Two-fight parlay Carlos Prates to defeat Charles Radtke and Brunno Ferreira to defeat Dustin Stoltzfus (-103)

Prates and Ferreira are the two scariest strikers on the card and I fancy them to get the job done in Louisville. I think Prates will be too creative for Radtke and Ferreira will be too powerful for Stoltzfus.

Miguel Baeza vs. Punahele Soriano Under 1.5 rounds (-115)

This fight is rivaling the Reyes fight for bad vibes. Both of these guys are desperate and both will think they can take the other one out. Both have had their chins cracked plenty in their UFC careers, so I think there’s a good chance one of them (probably Baeza) goes down in the first round.

Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios over 2.5 rounds (-166)

Ricky Turcios is a very cautious fighter and I think he’s going to make Raul Rosas Jr. chase him around for the whole fight. I don’t think Rosas Jr. has the striking game to stalk him down and cut him off, so we could see a pretty boring kickboxing match here that goes to the judges.

Jared Cannonier to win via decision (+225)

Again, I don’t like that Cannonier is 40, but he just beat Vettori as a 39-year-old. Imavov failed his test when he was given Strickland last year and I think he’ll fail this one against Cannonier. Cannonier has the better all around game and I think he’ll be able to jam Imavov up in the clinch and score a decisive, albeit dull, victory.

UFC Louisville Poll Time

Which of the earlier props and parlays do you like the look of the most?

Got something better than those? Well, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them in the comments.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Louisville fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 5 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 8 p.m. ET (also on ESPN/ESPN+).

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